PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 stage 3 - 240 kilometers of hilly terrain make for an exciting day

From the 10th to 16th of March the World Tour peloton races Tirreno-Adriatico. This is in itself one of the most important stage-races of the year; but simultaneously it serves as preparation for the spring classics and also as a test for the Giro d'Italia. It will be a week of high-octane racing across Italy! We preview stage 3.

The third day of racing is a mixed one, with plenty scenarios possible to decide the stage. The 240 kilometers on the bike will make it a long and challenging day, with a few climbs on the menu. A small bunch sprint or late attack can succeed on the day.

3200 meters of climbing throughout the day, which can leave it's mark. However most of the climbs will just be used by the breakaway riders, in the peloton things should remain rather calm until the kilometers leading up to the final ascent. There should be a fast leadout, as the hardest section is it's base.

1.6 kilometers at 9% open it up, ending with 20.8 kilometers to go. A tempting piece of climbing, but it then flattens almost completely for about 9 kilometers. The last 7 kilometers of the climb average around 5%. This won't be a climb where big differences will be made or the GC riders can distance each other... Instead it will become very tactical, certainly.

The gradients allow for a lot of slipstreaming, and so the main GC riders should be covered heavily. It gives chance to some GC riders attempting to go for the stage win, but escaping can depend on timing and luck. Additionally, the lack of steepness in the climb allows for puncheurs and classics riders to hang on and have suited terrain here to give it a shot.

The climb ends with only 4 kilometers to go, and half of the way to the finish line is then downhill... Organizing a chase to the end here will be very hard and anyone who has a gap can go on to take the win. The finale in Colforito is not technical and the final kilometers are almost completely straightforward, so the chances of seeing a small group sprint deciding the outcome are also high.

Harsh weather on the day, appropriate for the classics specialists who have to get used to it. We are likely going to have rain to make this stage worst, but the wind will also blow. It will lose some intensity throughout the afternoon, but the riders will experience strong southern wind at some points of the day. A crosswind that is certain to be felt quite a lot. In the final kilometers of the climb and run-up to the finish there will be a cross-tailwind, making it more likely for attacks to succeed.

How this stage will play out is a very interesting question. In normal terms, even a small peloton sprint would and is possible at the finish line with such a climb. But with the distance and the very bad weather, some will really feel bad and the final climb will weight heavy. Still the big question lies on how much impact it will have. No serious attacks will come in the steep first part, as in the following flat kilometers it is easy to chase down any GC move - whilst the puncheurs would burn their legs before the key part. Hence, the final 7 kilometers are the most important, but 5% means an average speed of around 30Km/h, where slipstreaming makes a huge difference.

Not just that, but with the climb not being steep, the heavy riders are actually not punished much, and if you follow the wheels you can indeed hang on. The pure climbers will have a tough time making a difference and will likely cover each other. The classics riders perhaps not so much. Filippo Ganna leads the GC into the day and it's close to as good of a climb as it could be for him, and if he does hang on he will be a threat both for a solo or sprint win. Puncheurs like Tom Pidcock, Marc Hirschi or Romain Grégoire may have the explosivty that will be necessary to create a gap over the other strong figures here; whilst an aggressive rider like Ben Healy is certain to play his cards. Other puncheurs such as Gianni Vermeersch, Valentin Madouas, Toms Skujins, Attila Valter and Simone Velasco will have freedom to go for their own result.

But what if it comes down to a sprint? Besides some riders mentioned above, we could have men like Alex Aranburu or AG2R's Andrea Vendrame and Dorian Godon coming out on top. Finally there is Mathieu van der Poel, who could get dropped early on, who can hang on and attack towards the top of the climb, or even go for a sprint at the finish and will be a top wildcard for the day.

Regarding the climbers it won't be easy to make the difference. Juan Ayuso is in terrific form and may actually give it a try and succeed but he is the only one who may be able to do it with pure power. Riders like Richard Carapaz and Giulio Ciccone are very explosive and are likely to try if they have the legs as well.

On the opportunist side, great riders who can definitely get away with an attack uncovered and then ride to victory we have men like Pello Bilbao, Derek Gee, Laurens de Plus, Eddie Dunbar or even Isaac del Toro if UAE use their numbers instead of working.

Kévin Vauquelin, Antonio Tiberi, Einer Rubio, Jai Hindley, Mikel Landa, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Simon Yates, Adam Yates and Lorenzo Fortunato should all also be there in the mix. One well timed attack could decide the entire stage even if it's not the strongest.

*** Tom Pidcock, Ben Healy, Mathieu van der Poel
** Pello Bilbao, Juan Ayuso, Marc Hirschi, Romain Grégoire
* Kévin Vauquelin, Richard Carapaz, Derek Gee, Giulio Ciccone, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Mikel Landa, Filippo Ganna, Eddie Dunbar, Adam Yates, Simon Yates, Isaac del Toro, Alex Aranburu, Dorian Godon, Andrea Vendrame

Pick: Ben Healy

How: Late attack and solo win.