Jonas Vingegaard virtually sealed the overall win at Tirreno-Adriatico, and now the final day of racing will be for the sprinters to enjoy. Jasper Philipsen and Tim Merlier are the main favourites, but can the peloton prevent a breakaway from taking the glory on stage 7?
As usual, San Benedetto Del Tronto is where the race ends. The profile is also one that will not surprise the riders, it's a stage split into two different sections. The first can be a last test for the classics specialists to go all-out and test their form.
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This is a day where in the past breakaways have succeeded, the first 65 kilometers are quite hilly, featuring several hilltops, rolling roads... Very explosive terrain. Afterwards the riders descent back into town and find very fast and pan-flat urban roads where it is not easy to close in gaps. The speed needs to be constantly quite high.
A bunch sprint still, is the most likely scenario. There is going to be a race towards a small chicane with 750 meters to go. A pan-flat sprint follows, one for the purists.
The Weather
Strong southeastern wind. Early in the day this can cause chaos , the riders will find hilly terrain and strong wind that can cause splits in the peloton, but most importantly make chasing difficult for the peloton. In the final circuit it won't be too different, the riders go back and forth around San Benedetto del Tronto, but if the wind passes through the urban roads of the city the riders will have a headwind finale. It will make the sprint more open, if it decided the stage win.
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The Favourites
Jasper Philipsen - Philipsen won the only pure sprint stage of the week. There, brilliant positioning and sprinting power did it, his traditional style... The headwind sprint means this can be tricky for the Belgian, but he does not really have a weak spot and by all means he can certainly take a second win.
Tim Merlier - Quick-Step have riders, but their classics specialists may want to attack and try to hunt success in a breakaway. Merlier has not won here however and that will come as a disappointment. As the final sprint stage, the Belgian team may deposit their chips in the Belgian and his hopes of replicating at least some of the success he had at the UAE Tour.
Jonathan Milan - Lidl continue to have a very strong leadout including Simone Consonni and Edward Theuns - experience and power. The Italian himself has already won a stage this week, he certainly has the legs to do really well here and go for a second one.
Phil Bauhaus is already a stage winner in this race, and a former winner in this very finale. He will be a dangerous rider with an experienced leadout, racing this sprint without the pressure which can be dangerous. Biniam Girmay has also looked in great form, however it is necessary that he doesn't do another irregular sprint if he is to chase a win. Caleb Ewan and Casper van Uden are also contenders for a strong result, if Filippo Ganna doesn't chase a breakaway he'd also be a candidate for a sprint.
Amaury Capiot, Vincenzo Albanese, Cees Bol, Stanislaw Aniolkowski, Axel Zingle, Niccolò Bonifazio, Andrea Vendrame, Ethan Vernon, Iván García Cortina, Giovanni Lonardi, Marius Mayrhofer and Alexander Kristoff will all be outsiders for a sprint.
This stage has in the past seen breakaway success, and it will be the last day ahead of the spring classics for most. With the hilly start, pan-flat finale and windy conditions, there is a lot of room for surprise. Hence we can expect attempts to form a very strong breakaway that could potentially go on for the win. Puncheurs, classics specialists and rouleurs being the main threat. Julian Alaphilippe, Kasper Asgreen, Magnus Sheffield, Ben Healy and Alberto Bettiol perhaps among the most dangerous.
Jonas Abrahamsen, Andreas Leknessund, Alessandro De Marchi, Lawson Craddock, Simone Velasco, Bastien Tronchon, Valentin Madouas, Michal Kwiatkowski and Krists Neilands are all mention worthy names on a day such as this.
Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 stage 7:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Jonathan Milan
** Tim Merlier, Biniam Girmay
* Phil Bauhaus, Caleb Ewan, Casper van Uden, Ethan Vernon, Marius Mayrhofer, Alexander Kristoff, Filippo Ganna, Kasper Asgreen, Ben Healy
Pick: Jasper Philipsen
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