Paris-Nice is holding on by a thread for Brandon McNulty. The American rider continues to defend himself spectacularly, but into the final difficult stage into Nice he holds a very short gap over some of his rivals and it will be a difficult task.
The final day of race. Paris-Nice always delivers in it's final Sunday, we've got 110 kilometers on the menu only but six climbs, many technical descents, many hairpins and one final steep climb where everything can be decided.
6.1Km at 4.9% (90Km to go), 5.4Km at 4.6% (73Km to go), 6.3Km at 6% (59Km to go) open up the day; the climbing starts after 14 kilometers. This will usually see big battles for breakaway formation, teammates of leaders frequently go up the road. This leads up to the Côte de Peille which is 6.5 kilometers at 6.9%, full of hairpins, a climb where winning attacks have happened in the past. This summits with 41 kilometers to go.
However this time around there are still two tough ascents to go. The riders have an intermediate sprint at the Col d'Èze which is 1.6 kilometers at over 9%, this summits with 25 kilometers to go. Attacks certainly can happen here, because the following fast descent leads directly into the final climb of the day.
This is the Col des Quatre Chemins - part of the Col d'Éze. It is 3.6 kilometers at 8.8%, but the final half is quite steeper. The ramps go up to 18%, brutal and enough to create differences. The race can end atop this ascent, it summits with 9 kilometers to go and from there on it's almost downhill all the way to the finish line at the Promenade des Anglais.
The Weather
Overnight a ton of rain will fall in Nice. Roads that were already wet will be even more after this. Luckily for the riders, the forecast sees it slow down or even stop completely into the morning and afternoon, but the roads will be soaked everywhere around Nice. This will make the descents more dangerous, breakaway more likely to succeed, and attacks ultimately more difficult to chase.
The Favourites
Brandon McNulty - 4 seconds... What I expected to see today happened, McNulty was consistent and is in good form but he is simply not as strong of a climber as his rivals. Furthermore on a steep one like Quatre Chemins he will be attacked and likely dropped. I don't put too much confidence in his GC win, he will need to match Jorgenson at least which is a tough task, and without much of a team if other riders try a raid early in he day. Yellow with such a small gap on a day like this is a difficult task for anyone, but it will be career-changing if he succeeds.
Matteo Jorgenson & Wilco Kelderman - Kelderman is only 1:43 minutes away from yellow and if he joins a breakaway, serious pressure can be put on rival teams. The Dutchman is in great form and has this capacity. But the real danger is Jorgenson, now only 4 seconds away from yellow. Bonifications could be the make or break in this race, but the reality is with climbs like this it's not necessary. Last year he did quite well here and I expect the same, the American is bound to win the GC if he continues to climb like he has this week. He holds over half a minute to Skjelmose and Evenepoel so he certainly is in the leading position.
Remco Evenepoel - Evenepoel despite being fourth continues to be the rider who is most pressured to attack; as we've seen today once again. He is likely to try and risk it all at some point around the Côte de Peille and the Col d'Èze. Why? Because dropping McNulty, Jorgenson and Skjelmose all in the final climb is a very difficult goal at the moment, they have matched him over the week in mot occasions. Some he can drop, but he wants a win. He has to continue to try and surprise, get a gap and move from there. If he does it he will be near impossible to bring back in roads like these, but he is very heavily marked and so that will be hard to achieve. That's the move for Evenepoel however, a stage win is not what he's looking for here.
Mattias Skjelmose - Skjelmose has moved onto the podium, 1 second ahead of Evenepoel, 35 and 31 behind McNulty and Jorgenson respectively. A tough position to be in; with a stage win under his belt and a podium place currently he must already be somewhat satisfied, but he can achieve more. Like Evenepoel however, he will need to drop several riders who have been at the same level this week and that's not easy. It will make for a very interesting race however, he's a complete wildcard at the moment, a GC win is definitely still on the table and with his strong sprint so can the stage win.
Santiago Buitrago - Great form, he showed it again today. He's won a stage so I doubt he'll go crazy and try to join a breakaway, also because in a head-to-head he has legitimate chances of taking a win. The final steep climb is perfect for him, he packs a nice sprint and being outside the Top10 right now gives him the possibility of skipping work if he finds himself within a strong group heading to a sprint. Nothing much to lose for the Colombian, he will not be a marked man either.
Primoz Roglic & Aleksandr Vlasov - Today BORA finally clicked. Vlasov has shown legs like these in the past, but today we've seen the best of the Russian once gain. Now with this triumph, Roglic and Vlasov sit 6th and 10th in the GC; 1:21 annd 2:05 behind McNulty. I expect attacks, because they have nothing really to lose. Roglic is now unlikely to even be in the podium, whilst Vlasov can either risk and try to go for the win or podium, or settle for a lower Top10 spot even if he's on a good day. The math is there, this is a day for attackers and BORA have the cards to play.
We will certainly have other riders in the mix fighting for the GC such as Luke Plapp, Egan Bernal and AG2R duo of Aurélien Paret-Peintre and Felix Gall, but I do not expect too many risks and also not one of them to drop the rest of the field. Nevertheless names to take into consideration.
However this is traditionally a day where the breakaway usually succeeds, and even more likely with the weather conditions that will be present. I expect a fierce GC fight which will not make it easy, but still chances are high for those who start the last climbs with some advantage.
Will Barta, Laurence Pithie, Matteo Sobrero, Harold Tejada, Ruben Guerreiro, Alexey Lutsenko, David Gaudu, Gerog Zimmermann, Pello Bilbao, Christian Scaroni, Ion Izagirre and Michael Storer are all dangerous riders for such a day.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2024 stage 8:
*** Remco Evenepoel, Mattias Skjelmose, Ion Izagirre
** Primoz Roglic, Santiago Buitrago, Laurence Pithie, Pello Bilbao
* Brandon McNulty, Wilco Kelderman, Aleksandr Vlasov, Egan Bernal, Harold Tehada, Christian Scaroni, Michael Storer
Pick: Remco Evenepoel
☀️ Sélection des équipes de #ParisNice 2024 ☀️ ✅ Les 18 UCI WorldTeams ✅ 🇧🇪 @lotto_dstny et 🇮🇱 @IsraelPremTech, 1ère et 2ème UCI ProTeams en 2023. ✅ 🇫🇷 @TeamTotalEnrg et 🇨🇭 @TudorProCycling, invitées par les organisateurs. ☀️ Team selection #ParisNice 2024 ☀️ ✅ The 18 UCI…
