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PREVIEW | Tirreno-Adriatico 2023 stage 7 - Classics riders may explode race and break through possible sprint on final day
CyclingSunday, 12 March 2023 at 10:59
Preview. After Primoz Roglic virtually sealed the win at Tirreno-Adriatico, he now only needs to arrive safely to the finish of stage 7 to win the edition. The final stage should be one for the sprinters, however the hilly start may provide a lot of spectacle with the tough terrain.
The final day of interesting will be fast and furious. San Benedetto del Tronto will once again host the finale of the race and the final half of the stage is pan-flat, with a circuit that is ideal for the sprinters. However, the first half of the stage is very hilly with several hilltops where a strong breakaway can go up the road, and many riders will be looking for a last-minute charge.
Start Time: 12:15CET
Finish Time: 16:30CET
Stage 7: San Benedetto del Tronto - San Benedetto del Tronto, 154 kilometers
4.7Km at 5%, 2.6Km at 8.6%, 1.4Km at 5.6%, 3.4Km at 6.3% and 8.5Km at 4.5%. This terrain is all packed into the initial 64 kilometers of a 154-kilometer day, followed by a medium-sized descent. Then the riders reach the sea and it's pan-flat roads.
The finale into San Benedetto del Tronto is the same as in 2022, with no gradients and high speeds expected. There is an S turn with just over 800 meters to go which will stretch things out, but a bunch sprint is likely at the end of the day and the race.
Stage 7 Finale
The Weather
Tirreno-Adriatico stage 7 map
12 degrees maximum and a slight northeastern breeze. It will most likely not affect the stage, although the finale could have some tailwind. In a sprint every centimeter matters as we sometimes see.
Breakaway to take the day?
I will be completely honest, I believe in a very aggressive start to the stage. It is very well suited for a strong breakaway to go up the road, with several climbs. Most are rolling, but one features quite hard gradients where the sprinter teams can't just control what happens. There are plenty of strong classics riders here warming up for the classics, and none has actually achieved success throughout the race.
I expect Wout van Aert to attack early on, he clearly has gotten the green light from Jumbo-Visma to go for a win, and the two hilly stages didn't go his way. As will he, most likely the likes of Mathieu van der Poel and Tom Pidcock will join in - there's no reason not to try, and they are all building form towards the classics (although Pidcock's form line is rather confusing).
Filippo Ganna was also incredibly impressive over the opening days. Julian Alaphilippe, Valentin Madouas and Benoît Cosnefroy are also riders with incredibly punchy skills which don't have anything to take from the race. Axel Zingle, Quentin Pacher, Alex Aranburu, Lorenzo Rota, Warren Barguil, Quinn Simmons and Alessandro De Marchi are also riders who are very well suited to the start to the day. A breakaway with a few of these riders will force the sprinter teams to the maximum.
If it comes down to a sprint
Jasper Philipsen - Philpsen is ideal for a technical finale. That won't be the case here. The Belgian team will no longer have the pressure to take the win, and likely Mathieu van der Poel will have the green light to attack.
Fabio Jakobsen - Here we find the same thing, as the team already took a stage win and Julian Alaphilippe will most likely want to attack early in the day. He can go for the victory or block a breakaway's chances depending on team strategy so it's ideal. Although it won't be easy, Jakobsen will just have to count on the support of Quick-Step and if it comes back together a bunch sprint would suit him.
Dylan Groenewegen, Jordi Meeus, Fernando Gaviria, Matteo Moschetti and Juan Sebastián Molano would be riders that would be well suited to a regular bunch sprint here, having the pure speed. Never to discard Phil Bauhaus as well who was the winner in this very spot last year.
The likes of Biniam Girmay, Simone Consonni and Edward Theuns could benefit from a difficult and confusing day, with the sprinters suffering way before the sprint, and that climbing capacity could allow them to keep some of their edge towards the line. Giacomo Nizzolo, Peter Sagan and Mark Cavendish remain outsiders, who in the past would be main favourites here.
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Prediction Tirreno-Adriatico 2023 stage 7:
*** Jasper Philipsen, Wout van Aert
** Fabio Jakobsen, Dylan Groenewegen, Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Biniam Girmay
* Jordi Meeus, Juan Sebastián Molano, Tom Pidcock, Filippo Ganna, Julian Alaphilippe, Alex Aranburu
Pick: Wout van Aert
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