PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2023 stage 6 - Breakaway favourite to win as riders tackle 20% climb

Preview. Stage 6 of Paris-Nice is a very treacherous day where the GC riders will have to be on their toes, but in the fight for the stage win there will be many riders who are capable of being within the fight.

Stage 6 an explosive day where once again the classics riders can clash with the sprinters, but the GC riders will be just as much into favouritism. Breakaways can surely succeed as well. The day starts with a small rise where a strong group has the opportunity to go up the road. As the riders head into Nice they face mostly flat roads, but there will be two big challenges before reaching La Colle-sur-Loup.

Start Time: 11.50CET

Finish Time: 16:40CET

With 64 kilometers to go the peloton finishes the Côte de Cabris. 9.4 kilometers at 4.7% does not sound dangerous in any way but it's a climb split into three uphill sections. The middle one featuring 500 meters at 16% and the ramps go up to 22%, it's a crazy steep climb and it does provide space for an attack.

Over the summit there was a plateau and a very fast run-up to the final ascent. Here it will be known what is to be the outcome of the day.

The climb to the Côte de la Colle-sur-Loup is 2 kilometers at 9.7%, which summits with 28.5 kilometers to go. It's a very hard climb again with ramps over 20%, a crazy steep ascent. Over the summit there is a plateau with rolling roads. The intermediate sprint with 21 kilometers to go sees another steep ramp, with 500 meters at 9%, another opportunity for an attack.

It is more than enough to create gaps, however it is a day where the GC riders may prefer to save their legs, ahead of the decisive weekend. Following that climb the terrain will be up and down all the way into the finish. It will be incredibly quick, however in the final kilometer the riders will find uphill gradients into the final sprint.

The Weather

Strong northwestern wind in the first part of the stage before the riders head into the hills, it will make for a very nervous and dangerous start, crosswinds will be present and there is a real risk of echelons. Deeper into the stage however the peloton heads into a more covered area, here the effect of the weather should fade completely. It will be a very tense day on the bike.

Will the GC fight be the headline of the day?

On the eve of a queen stage and with the strongest in the race holding the yellow jersey, with a flat finish, the GC riders should be conservative. However Tadej Pogacar is anything but that. The race could explode once again in such tricky terrain, as a surprise. David Gaudu and Jonas Vingegaard should most likely be the closest competition.

If the stage were to come down to a GC day but one where late attacks could succeed, I wouldn't be surprised to see in-form riders such as Romain Bardet, Neilson Powless, Kévin Vauquelin and Aurélien Paret-Peintre succeed, with Max Schachmann another possibility for such a scenario.

Will the sprinters be able to take it home?

The sprint. So unlikely in such a day, but having such a field of climbing sprinters somewhat changes that. Team Jayco AlUla may want to control things, they seem to have a strong team and Michael Matthews looks to be in great form. With Mads Pedersen, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Bryan Coquard and who knows Arnaud De Lie, an interesting alliance could be formed around the idea of one more opportunity for the fast men.

Sure enough some may also want to take part in a breakaway. The field does not only come down to those men, but riders such as Fred Wright, Iván Cortina or Jhonatan Narváez could also do well too on such an explosive day.

Breakaway is most likely to succeed

In such a day it will be very hard to control it. Although the strong winds towards the start may incentivize a strong pace throughout the whole day, the rolling terrain towards the end of the stage will be very hard to have an organized chase in. There are arguments against a breakaway, but I think at this point of the race, and with Pogacar in the yellow jersey - besides being the eve of the queen stage - that the GC riders will be relatively conservative (that is, if they don't put an intermediate sprint ahead of Pogacar).

It's a tough day. Want it or not, whoever wins needs to be at least a decent climber. With only one stage under the belt, and a UAE Team Emirates that is very much careless on energy expenditure due to Pogacar's confidence, the jersey is unlikely to change hands and riders in the Top30 won't have much freedom. However there are quite a few that have good chances for such a day.

When it comes to the puncheurs and riders who will most likely look to make a difference in the climbs you have Kevin Geniets and Rudy Molard for Groupama, Kobe Goossens for Intermarché, Gregor Mühlberger for Movistar, Luis Leon Sánchez for Astana, Omar Fraile for INEOS and Clément Champoussin for Arkéa that could have the freedom but also the legs to go for the win.

This is a day well suited to the rouleurs however. Quick-Step have two dangerous weapons in Rémi Cavagna and Kasper Asgreen. The other Belgian team Lotto Dstny have also two big specialists in days like this such as Thomas de Gendt and Brent van Moer, it could be an interesting battle just to form a breakaway.

Prediction Paris-Nice 2023 stage 6:

*** Rudy Molard, Rémi Cavagna, Tadej Pogacar
** Brent van Moer, Clément Champoussin, Omar Fraile, Michael Matthews
* Mads Pedersen, Bryan Coquard, Arnaud De Lie, David Gaudu, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Kobe Goossens, Kévin Feniets, Luis León Sánchez, Kasper Asgreen, Thomas de Gendt

Pick: Rémi Cavagna