PREVIEW | Itzulia Basque Country 2024 stage 4 - Will Primoz Roglic be able to respond to attacks after tough crash?

Thursday, 04 April 2024 at 12:06

Stage 4 of Itzulia Basque Country will be another hilly day but this time around quite tougher. The finale will not be easy and will put to the test Primoz Roglic who crashed today.

Stage 4 has a flat start in the Basque country, overall the first two thirds of the day are quite calm, mostly flat and the riders will mostly save themselves for the finale which features three climbs. It's a day with 2100 meters of climbing.

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Stage 4: Etxarri-Aranatz - Legutio, 157.5 kilometers

The riders climb Olaeta which is 3.2 kilometers at 5.7% with 38 kilometers to go and following a technical descent the riders enter into the second ascent directly. This one is 2.4 kilometers at 8.1%, a steep one where attacks may certainly come. This one ends with 25 kilometers to go and sees another short but technical descent after the summit.

After a flat section, the riders head into the ascent of Leintz-Gatzaga, the decisive one of the day. It's 2.9 kilometers at 8.% which goes up to 12%. The climb is explosive, it's tough and features a few switchbacks. The climb ends with only 10 kilometers to go.

Gaps can certainly emerge in this section of the stage, but regardless of that happening or not, a lot can happen in the remaining flat kilometers. There is no descending; so attacks can be consolidated, or attacks may come in the run-up to the line in Legutio.

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The Weather

Map Itzulia Basque Country 2024 stage 4

Sunny sky but strong southwestern wind. Again this will mostly mean headwinds early in the day which does not favour the breakaway. Risks of echelons are high afterwards however from kilometers 70-80. Not too likely however. The final climb will be in a headwind. The run-up to the finish line is then briefly headwind, crosswind and lastly tailwind to the finish.

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The Favourites

This is another stage that is quite hard to predict. We've got three days of racing left, with growing intensity. That, together with the headwind in the final climb would equate to a more conservative race from the big favourites... But we've got a race leader, Primoz Roglic, who crashed hard today and might not have his best legs. It certainly would be a waste for other riders not to test the BORA - hansgrohe rider. Pure climbers like Jonas Vingegaard, Felix Gall, Mikel Landa or Juan Ayuso (who also crashed today) might not want to make moves or have the explosivity to make the difference, but we've got tons of other quality climbers who can make damage on ascents like this.

I wouldn't necessarily expect Remco Evenepoel to attack the climb, because I doubt he can drop his rivals there. But he will certainly eye the final flat section as a gap there would virtually mean a win. I believe UAE will definitely attack as they additionally have Isaac Del Toro, Brandon McNulty, Marc Soler and Jay Vine and this is the kind of finale where they can use their numbers to do damage.

On the climb itself some of these may attack and trigger bigger moves. We just don't know, but several riders have also lost time these days and already have the pressure to win it back. Ion Izagirre is another dangerous attackers to take into consideration. But we could quite well have a sprint between riders like these, in which case the likes of Mattias Skjelmose and Kévin Vauquelin also have a big saying, alongside Bahrain - Victorious duo Pello Bilbao and Santiago Buitrago who can be present in any scenario.

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There is the possibility that indeed the climb is not too attacked, and a sprint between a rather modest peloton will decide the outcome of the day. That is not an outlandish possibility as we've got plenty puncheurs who can sprint well present here - well, the past two stage winners prove it. Quinten Hermans, Alex Aranburu and Paul Lapeira are riders who can certainly go on to fight for the win. Bahrain's Edoardo Zambanini was a big surprise today, perhaps he could also take the next step this week. The likes of Andrea Bagioli, Natnael Tesfatsion, Vito Braet, Samuele Battistella and Ide Schelling are also cards on the table.

For other types of finales where a late attack, both in the climb or flat section can decide the stage, other riders can also play a role in such a day. Take into consideration Gonzalo Serrano, Max Schachmann, Archie Ryan, Clément Champoussin, Eddie Dunbar, Romain Grégoire, Oscar Onley and Warren Barguil.

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Prediction Itzulia Basque Country 2024 stage 4:

*** Remco Evenepoel, Isaac Del Toro
** Kevin Vauquelin, Mattias Skjelmose, Quinten Hermans, Alex Aranburu
* Jonas Vingegaard, Primoz Roglic, Juan Ayuso, Brandon McNulty, Pello Bilbao, Santiago Buitrago, Romain Grégoire, Samuele Battistella, Paul Lapeira

Pick: Brandon McNulty

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