Itzulia Basque Country is one of the most explosive and exciting races of the year. The Basque race takes place from the 1st to the 6th of April and will feature many of the world's best climbers in a route full of climbs every single day. We preview the race ahead.
The race features six days of racing and the route is not as hard as in previous years. After a 10-kilometer time-trial that will kick off action in Irun, the riders find two days that should be ending in a sprint. The race then gradually becomes harder; with stages 4 and 5 having flat finales after hilly days where explosive climbs close to the finish can make differences. Stage 6 around Eibar will be the most important day for the overall classification where the longer climbs can make for bigger differences.
The Favourites
Jonas Vingegaard & Sepp Kuss - Vingegaard has won Tirreno-Adriatico in style and without real competition - although it was a strong one. The terrain here is not as well suited however; we've got more tactical racing, shorter and more explosive climbs and an early time-trial where he may lose time to rivals. The big favourite? I would say so, but certainly not an easy task against some of the riders he will also face at the Dauphiné and Tour de France. Due to his recent performance in Catalunya, he should have Sepp Kuss as a domestique for the week.
Remco Evenepoel & Mikel Landa - I would say a co-leadership, and that would be the best strategy for Quick-Step in all honesty. This is terrain where Remco Evenepoel should thrive, but his rivals know all to well that he must be covered at all times. Don't expected him to get away by himself throughout the week, so it's in the climbs that he would have to make the difference. Here, I do not see him dropping someone like Vingegaard, but he does pack a good sprint and an initial time-trial where he may win. Still if Quick-Step want to win the race it will be a good idea to give an in-form Mikel Landa the freedom to make his own moves and not be on the deffensive as he can certainly climb, will be motivated and will not be a marked man.
Primoz Roglic & Jai Hindley - BORA are in a bit of an uncertain position. In ideal conditions this type of race is perfect for Roglic, but he certainly didn't look super sharp at Paris-Nice. If he hasn't improved his form he should be there, but not in the fight for the win. If he did, he's certainly a threat, and BORA can also play with a very strong Jai Hindley the same way Quick-Step can with Landa (although both riders are not really explosive so it's not easy to surprise).
UAE Team Emirates - UAE pack a strong team with plenty options. Juan Ayuso most likely the key piece, second at Tirreno-Adriatico and the rider who is best suited to this type of climbing. Brandon McNulty should be dangerous to chase stages but his pure climbing is not at a level that sees him as a victory candidate. However the team can play with their depth which also includes Isaac Del Toro who will race for the first time against some of these big figures - besides Marc Soler and Jay Vine who are everyday wildcards.
Mattias Skjelmose & Tao Geoghegan Hart - The Lidl-Trek duo do not have responsibilities of controlling or attacking the race. Hart I would say a Top10 contender - although at his best, certainly more - but Mattias Skjelmose packs a strong time-trial and loves these shorter climbs. After his display in Paris-Nice he definitely carries the capacity to fight for a Top5 or more here if he's got his best form, he should also have the freedom that other big rivals will not have in stages where it can get quite tactical.
The field is absolutely luxurious however, virtually a mini Tour de France. INEOS Grenadiers have both Tom Pidcock and Carlos Rodríguez here in what is the final big stage-race of the spring before the Grand Tour season begins. Bahrain - Victorious have Paris-Nice performer Santiago Buitrago and home rider Pello Bilbao, whilst the likes of Felix Gall and David Gaudu can certainly also be in the fight for the podium, and you never know what Ion Izagirre - six-time podium finisher and winner in 2019 - may do in these roads which he knows like the back of his hand.
We can also expect action from the likes of Simon Yates, Eddie Dunbar and Kévin Vauquelin if they find good form but that is not certain. Add Ruben Gueirreiro, Rigoberto Urán, Esteban Chaves, Clément Champoussin, Romain Grégoire, Louis Meintjes, Oscar Onley and Steff Cras to the equation and we've got plenty battles awaiting us.
The race will also feature a few sprinters who should have at least one or two opportunities. As was the case in Catalunya however, it is a very modest field. We've got Ethan Hayter and Alex Aranburu leading the World Tour figures, whilst Orluis Aular could also be in the mix for Caja Rural. The likes of Vito Braet, Ide Schelling, Quinten Hermans and Andrea Bagioli could possibly also feature in these finales; whilst the likes of Matteo Sobrero, Michal Kwiatkowski and an in-form Paul Lapeira aren't expected to be in the mix for the GC but could be very interesting in the hilly stages.
Prediction Itzulia Basque Country 2024 overall classification:
*** Jonas Vingegaard
** Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Mattias Skjelmose, Juan Ayuso
* Isaac Del Toro, Brandon McNulty, Sepp Kuss, Jai Hindley, Tao Geoghegan Hart, Kévin Vauquelin, David Gaudu, Santiago Buitrago, Tom Pidcock, Carlos Rodríguez, Felix Gall
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
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