Stage 7 (ITT): Foligno - Perugia, 40.6 kilometers
It is a relatively simple time-trial, up until a certain point. The first 34 kilometers will be flat and straightforward where riders can set a consistent pace and will have over half an hour here to make differences. It will be meaningful, but the last 6 kilometers of the effort could be just as important.
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No bike switching is expected, but the final climb will start off with 1.3 kilometers at over 10%. This is serious, it's climber territory, and after the summit is a relatively constant uphill drag to the line. This will be a hard effort to measure, it features different sections, you can maintain a constant power output but certainly it will be key to save a lot for the final climb. An interesting mix of specialists and stage-racers will take over the Top10 on the day.
The Weather
Modestly strong wind from the northeast. It will be coming as a crosswind throughout most of the effort but it shouldn't change intensity throughout the day so it shouldn't benefit anyone specifically.
The Favourites
UAE -
Tadej Pogacar, the main favourite for the day? I would say so, he may not be the best in the flat section but we've got 6 kilometers of climbing including a very steep section towards the end. The Slovenian took it easy today, thinking of the big picture surely, and will have here the opportunity to take his first win in pink. UAE also have
Mikkel Bjerg who is a strong contender to hunt for a win on a day like this.
INEOS - On the opposite side of the table is INEOS, with their endless amount of quality time-trialists.
Tobias Foss, Thymen Arensman and
Magnus Sheffield can all be considered for a top result, but the fight for the stage win will rely on
Filippo Ganna. In good form and already on the attack a few times this week, the Italian will certainly have the power to make the difference over the main section of the time-trial. In the climb he won't be the best, but we know he does quite well and he can take the win on a day he specifically focused on. The team also have
Geraint Thomas who will be looking to put time into his direct rivals.
GC fight - Pogacar will certainly enhance his lead, whilst Geraint Thomas and Daniel Martínez will very likely also expand their current podium positions. I do not think it's complex math, but how much time is only going to be seen on the road tomorrow. Unfortunately all the riders behind will be looking to limit as much as possible. Cian Uijtdebroeks, Einer Rubio, Lorenzo Fortunato, Juan Pedro López, Jan Hirt and Esteban Chaves are all in the Top10 but their losses to the top riders will be of minutes.
We've got a few men that can take advantage of this day to climb up like Alexey Lutsenko, Ben O'Connor and Luke Plapp. Note however that they are 9th, 11th and 15th in the GC and they are not top time-trialists, but can benefit from a GC field that is incredibly modest in the discipline. Hence, an important day when it comes to the overall classification.
We could see a few riders outside of these lists who can contest for a place in the Top10 such as
Benjamin Thomas, Edoardo Daan Hoole, Felix Grossschartner, Max Schachmann, Rainer Kepplinger, Michael Hepburn, Lorenzo Milesi, Stefan De Bod... Maybe even Jonathan Milan who is in contention for the points classification and can add something here.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 7:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Filippo Ganna
** Geraint Thomas, Magnus Sheffield, Mikkel Bjerg
* Thymen Arensman, Tobias Foss, Daniel Martínez, Ben O'Connor, Benjamin Thomas, Max Schachmann
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
