PREVIEW & FAVOURITES | Vuelta a España 2025 stage 14 - Can João Almeida take more time on Jonas Vingegaard?

We preview stage 14 of the Vuelta a Espana, which will take place on the 6th of September. After the Alto de l'Angliru comes another brutal mountain stage with a summit finish at La Farrapona. Will João Almeida be able to cut through Jonas Vingegaard's lead? Or will the Visma rider take revenge? The stage is estimated to start at 13:50CET and finish at 17:10CET.

Stage 14 will take the riders up to the Alto de la Farrapona, a short stage but with a difficult second half where more important gaps are set to be created in the fight for the overall classification. After the brutality that the last few stages has presented, this could be even more dangerous for the GC riders, who must battle their way through fatigue to put on a strong performance in another key stage.

Although the summit finish is quite difficult this is not a stage where you must only look towards one climb. The penultimate ascent, Alto de San Lorenzo, is in itself a brutality and a climb which can be attacked just as hard.

10 kilometers at 8.6% and the final 5 kilometers average over 10% with no resting sections. It's a grueling constant effort which can be very dangerous for those who do not have the best of days. The climb ends with 34 kilometers to the finish, not too far.

But the climb to La Farrapona is the one to take into consideration the most. It's 17 kilometers in total, although you could argue it's even longer if you count false-flat roads. But the final 7 kilometers average 8.5% and that's where the biggest differences should be made on the day.

Strong southern wind on the final climb, which will come as a crosswind, but likely one that is exposed and will allow for riders to have more benefit from riding in the wheels. Not good news for the riders looking to make a difference.

Jonas Vingegaard - There is an interesting question I raise on the Dane which is why he didn't take the front today to win the stage. He did not have the legs, it seems clear, which is interesting because it didn't look like it on the Angliru - and it also means we have a true and tight battle for the overall win. The downhill technical finish was a given victory for whomever entered it in front, but despite being in the wheels for the entire final 6 kilometers, Vingegaard could not physically overtake Almeida. That's lack of legs, or in other words, strength of the Portuguese. We can certainly say Visma isn't going to be chasing all day long for the sake of hunting a stage anymore, regardless of the circumstances. Vingegaard is in the lead, and remains the man to beat in this race, but his focus should not be on riding defensively and in Almeida's wheel. Although if he has the legs, and this is a brutal stage where it may be the case, he should attack to try and gain time on the competition.

João Almeida - The UAE rider will have gotten a lot of motivation from today, seeing his team stronger than ever in this race, leading him up the climbs confidently and putting himself ahead of Jonas Vingegaard. Yes, closing this entire gap is always going to be hard, but possible. On this climb the wind may hamper his plans of making the difference, but certainly he will try. He will be more confident than ever after the mighty Angliru.

GC Fight - The fight for the podium, if anything, will also be quite interesting. Unfortunately, these seem a level below the Top2, so they will likely just follow Visma and UAE and then do their own race behind instead of attacking each other. However the gaps are small. Tom Pidcock is hanging on with 42 seconds over Jai Hindley and 57 over Felix Gall. In the blink of an eye on a stage like this we could see the gap fade, but Pidcock is on a generational Vuelta and he could well also hang on to this position at least for the time being.

BORA have the men to push the pace and pressure Pidcock, but Giulio Pellizzari is fighting for the white jersey and with Matthew Riccitello right in his wheel, there will be no sacrifice from either of them for now. Both should be up there quite confidently, whilst everyone else - except for Sepp Kuss and Matteo Jorgenson - will likely not have the legs and fall behind the main battle.

Breakaway - I think their chances are substantial, as we see a few riders put down impressive climbing performances and at this point in the race most will have freedom. Visma have no reason to attack now, but UAE does have reasons to push and try to replicate today's success, which may make the break's goals hard. Having men in the breakaway is also likely to be a priority for the top teams, as few will go over San Lorenzo if the pace is high in the peloton.

Abel Balderstone, Santiago Buitrago, Bob Jungels, Harold Tejada, Juan Guillermo Martinez, Eddie Dunbar, Mikel Landa and Javier Romo are the men to watch. UAE is likely to have someone in the breakaway, but I think that unless Almeida is on a bad day, they will all play a role in aiding him and not be prioritizing the stage win.

*** Jonas Vingegaard, João Almeida
** Jai Hindley, Javier Romo, Harold Tejada
* Sepp Kuss, Giulio Pellizzari, Matthew Riccitello, Felix Gall, Tom Pidcock, Mikel Landa, Santiago Buitrago, Abel Balderstone, Bob Jungels, Eddie Dunbar

Pick: Jonas Vingegaard

How: I think we will have a GC battle for the stage win but this time around, although very small, the Dane will have the upper hand.