On the 10th of August we have got the first World Tour event following the Tour de France. The Clásica San Sebastián is often one of the most reputable one-day races, and every year sees a quality field of classics riders and climbers fight for victory. We preview the race ahead.
The route will total a long 236 kilometers on the road with over 4400 meters of climbing which will leave the climbers and puncheurs as the main favourites. The race sees a lot of climbs early on, although it never goes into the high mountains, instead going through some hilly roads, and the final 10 kilometers will decide the outcome with four key climbs.
The first is the Jaizkibel, 7.4 kilometers long at 5.8% and summits with 94 kilometers to go, with a rather technical descent afterwards. It is farther from the finish this year with the addition of a new climb, but it remains the race's most iconic ascent. It ends with 60 kilometers to go and prepares for the main climb of the day.
It's followed by the Erlaitz ascent with it’s summit at 40Km to go, it averages over 10% for 4 kilometers, differences can be made, attacks can be dealt and serious damage can be created for the race’s outcome. With it's constant and tough gradients it may be the location where the climbers are the most comfortable and where the race can explode. A plateau section follows before descending into San Sebastián for the first time.
Then finally, the race's new climb. It's not fully new so to say, as it is right besides other climbs that are traditionally used and are part of the same hill, but through a different road. Pilotegi, the race's new monster... 2.1 kilometers at 11.3% and it's one where the riders save themselves to the final ramp. Why? Because it reaches an insane 27% close to the summit. A brutal 'goat track' which will make differences regardless of what happens.
The descent to the finish then is technical, fast and will leave the riders with only 3 kilometers to go. It is then a fast flat road into the heart of San Sebastián where there will be a solo winner or small sprint for victory.
The Weather
A warm day in the Basque Country but the weather won't affect the race much. There will be a breeze from the north but besides Jaizkibel the climbs are not exposed and they will also be very steep where the wind has even less effect.
The Favourites
Daniel Martínez - The Colombian in my opinion is a great favourite for this race. He does need to find his best form, but this season with BORA he seems to have gotten the motivation and a working plan. Martínez has won during the Volta ao Algarve in long and also explosive climbs, has proven to have a strong sprint amongst the climbers but mostly during the Giro he really showed his quality as a consistent climber. If he has his level, he can certainly win his first big classic.
UAE - UAE has, as is the case everywhere, a very strong team. But their main leaders are indeed missing. So the team starts with a few wildcards, several with good chances of finishing on the podium. After winning the Czech Tour it is certain that Marc Hirschi carries good form but also nice climbing legs. Isaac Del Toro will be testing himself in a strong field but I do not put a limit as to what he can do; Pavel Sivakov (second in 2022) who should have freedom here after a Tour de France working for Tadej Pogacar.
Mikel Landa & Julian Alaphilippe - The Quick-Step duo will be trying to defend Evenepoel's win of the past two years. Will they do it? Alaphilippe is a former winner here, but the race has since become more oriented to the climbers and he is not one. I recon he'll struggle, but he did look great at the Olympic Games so maybe he's got it in him. Mikel Landa rode a superb Tour - the best Grand Tour in his career, in my opinion - and if he shows the same form he will be a menace in the climbs, supported by the many home fans that will be cheering for him on the road. Mauri Vansevenant and William Lecerf Junior could also be interesting outsiders.
Jhonatan Narváez - This isn't a route perfectly suited to the Ecuadorian. I rate his chances as realistic, but not overly likely. It depends on how the race goes; if it is very hard throughout the day he will likely lack the explosivity towards the end... But he can tackle the short steep climbs like few others and will be a danger for a top result, backed up by INEOS.
Jonas Vingegaard & Sepp Kuss - The American has won the queen stage of the Vuelta a Burgos at Lagunas de Neila and I feel like he's got the form necessary to tackle this race, he found it just at the right time. To win, he has to go solo and on the climbs. A hard task, but not impossible for the Visma rider, who is surely going to be up there once the riders go up.
Vingegaard is a late addition to the race and perhaps the biggest favourite alongside it. Visma have the team to put in a strong pace all day long and this is a race for the climbers. The Dane has shown extremely high level during the Tour and now, recovered, he may be close to that level. If he is he may be the biggest of threats in the climb to Erlaitz and can create serious differences.
It is in fact a rather open race. With the lack of the 'usual suspects' the top climbers such as Pogacar and three-time winner Evenepoel; it means that it is easier for surprises to pick up strong results in this race. Other top climbers who aren't among the flashiest names in my opinion also have a shot at winning this race. Think for example the likes of Simon Yates, Ben O'Connor and Romain Bardet - each, on their best day, can certainly match any other climber on this startlist.
We have Giulio Ciccone who is also a very strong climber and just off a Top10 at the Tour de France as well as Santiago Buitrago; ultra-steep climb expert Michael Woods who surely has a race here where he has his best chance of thriving; Home rider Ion Izagirre who frequently performs very well on these roads; Lotto Dstny duo Maxim van Gils and Lennert van Eetvelt who haven't found their best form recently but if they show it here, both can win; And who knows Caja Rural's Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda has been hugely impressive over the season and on these steep climbs the Colombian will be in his element.
Add to the mix riders like Matthew Riccitello, Einer Rubio, Tobias Johannessen, Stef Cras... Lenny Martínez if he has recovered from the odd decision of Groupama to put him at the Tour de France. Former winner Neilson Powless will also be on the start line.
Prediction Clasica San Sebastian 2024:
*** Daniel Martínez, Jonas Vingegaard
** Mikel Landa, Sepp Kuss, Simon Yates, Santiago Buitrago
* Julian Alaphilippe, Isaac Del Toro, Marc Hirschi, Pavel Sivakov, Ben O'Connor, Giulio Ciccone, Maxim van Gils, Michael Woods, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, Lenny Martínez, Ion Izagirre
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
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