Pedal Punditry #11 - Juan Ayuso, UAE Team Emirates and the Vuelta a Espana; a story where everyone will lose

UAE Team Emirates are having a near perfect season so far but among the much-celebrated success and stacks of money lay personal ambitions. The team is at the very limit when it comes to the amount of leaders it can keep satisfied and one is certainly the topic of a serious discussion. In this Pedal Punditry I discuss Juan Ayuso's complicated position with UAE Team Emirates and how the Vuelta a España is being the catalyst for even more chaos.

This piece has been written on the 5th of August and at the time of writing, it is reported that Ayuso will not race the Vuelta a España but is the first reserve, in case someone in the lineup falls ill or injured ahead of the race. All the arguments are presented in this timeline, which although unlikely, can potentially change in the upcoming weeks.

Juan Ayuso's upbringing

The first and most important piece of this interesting puzzle is Ayuso himself. A 21-year old Spanish climber who will turn 22 on the eve of the start of La Vuelta. He was an incredibly impressive rider in the junior ranks, winning both national titles in 2020 and in his first year as an under-23 with Team Colpack he dominated the under-23 Giro d'Italia, winning over Tobias Johannessen and Henri Vandenabeele. His talent was undeniable and already at this point several World Tour teams were on the hunt to sign one of the riders who promised the most in upcoming years. UAE Team Emirates took a step further and made an offer to buy out his contract and sign him with immediate effect in the middle of the season.

Hence, Ayuso celebrated his new contract in June 2021, and within one month he almost took his first pro win at the Prueba Villafranca at age 18 in a World Tour peloton. In 2022 he finished fifth at the Volta a Catalunya, fourth at the Tour de Romandie, took his first pro win at the Circuito de Getxo... This earned him a debut at the Vuelta a España where at 19 years of age he finished third in the overall classification, only behind Remco Evenepoel and Enric Mas. He effectively made history, becoming the youngest ever Vuelta podium finisher and second youngest ever Grand Tour podium finisher, only behind Henri Cornet who was only a few days younger when he did the same at the Tour de France in.... 1904. Hence, Ayuso's potential was confirmed, and UAE didn't only have a diamond in the rough, they had a full-fledged jewel in their hands - that was reminisent of Tadej Pogacar who achieved a similar result in his debut Vuelta only 3 years before.

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A tendon injury derailed his start to the season in 2023, which only happened in late April. Nevertheless the Spaniard won time-trials in the Tour de Romandie and Tour de Suisse - finishing second in the GC of the latter - and proved he was back. He set out to the Vuelta as sole team leader as co-leader alongside João Almeida. Eventually, he finished fourth, with an equally strong performance as the past year but unable to crack the Visma armour which completed the whole podium. He was the closest competitor, but victory was never on the table. Notably, he would not work much together with teammate João Almeida who was ninth.

But that was another part of a story that began in the 2022 Volta a Catalunya. After winning stage 4 to Boí Taüll, Almeida had climbed to the lead of the race and on stage 6 Richard Carapaz and Sergio Higuita attacked the start of the stage and succeeded in a mythical raid that overturned the overall classification. UAE had three riders in the reduced peloton all day long, Rui Costa did his best to control the attack but without success, but Ayuso notably did not work for the team leader on terrain where it would've made a big difference and the team lost the race lead. It was the first sign that Ayuso was not signed to be domestique.

Important to say, and this is a key piece of this story, that it may not have been Ayuso's personal decision but instead UAE's decision so as to preserve his GC result (fifth in the end), so as to score UCI points. UAE are dominating the standings in 2024, but in 2023 were in a close battle with Visma and sponsors take this classification very seriously - the reason? I'm not sure... Bragging rights, non-understanding of cycling, being an argument for UAE to keep investing in the team... Any of those could be.

Juan Ayuso and João Almeida during the 2022 Vuelta a España. @Sirotti

2024... Year of establishment?

Going into the 2024 season Ayuso's goal was publicly to aim for the Tour de France. The team already had it's Tour shortlist decided in the winter and he was part of it, alongside Tadej Pogacar, Adam Yates and João Almeida. An incredibly strong team, but he clearly was not looking to be in a secondary role. "Tadej is the leader, but I'm not going to give up any opportunity that the race proposes. I'll go out to try to win a stage and, depending on how it goes, fight for my personal goals for the overall," he initially said in December. "Tadej is our leader, but we can play other cards to put pressure on other teams," he said in January. Regardless of who is in the team, he wants his own result. It is not unnatural for a rider of his talent, but is a different message than other riders such as Almeida and Adam Yates who knew Pogacar was always going to be the main card. 

In the eve of the race his ambitions, after a DNF in the Dauphiné, were different, but he never said in public that he would be working. "If everything goes well and Tadej is, quote unquote, calm, I may have a chance," he said. After Yates and Almeida dominated the Tour de Suisse with first and second and Pogacar was in great form following a victory in the Giro with no rival, Ayuso was for most relegated to fourth place as the most reliable GC rider. The Tour starts, and on stage 4 UAE Team Emirates goes all-out attacking the Col du Galibier. With the whole team in front, many noticed Ayuso racing away from the block but having good climbing legs; up until Almeida gestured him to come to the front. At the time there was already a discussion on his role and attitude within the team. Ayuso called the gesture unnecessary, whilst Adam Yates between the lines was very critic of Ayuso: "I had to do my job early cause some guys weren't in position".

Juan Ayuso won the 2024 Itzulia Basque Country, joined on the podium by Carlos Rodríguez and Mattias Skjelmose. @Sirotti

On stage 11 the team once again went all-out to attack the race whilst Ayuso was in the back of the peloton by himself. Having a bad day, he was dropped and lost several positions in the overall classification whilst UAE's attack backfired and Jonas Vingegaard won the stage ahead of Tadej Pogacar. Ayuso was not part of the block or the team plans seemingly. Perhaps the team already suspected of Covid symptoms and opted to keep him away from the GC riders. Two days later he would test positive but continue in the race, only to abandon in the first kilometers of the stage having been dropped in the early kilometers. The team went on to collectively thrive and win the race, whilst Ayuso began to focus on his other goals (Olympic Games and who knows, a possible Vuelta a España return).

UAE Team Emirates

But if Ayuso was to race the Vuelta, he would team up with Almeida and Yates. Knowing his ambitious nature and the clear frustration from his two other teammates regarding him, it is unclear how smoothly the group would perform - specially as all three are similarly strong climbers and each can realistically dream of the final victory at the race which is lacking many of the world's best climbers. UAE and specially Joxean Matxin are very protective of Ayuso. This is justified, it is easy to forget that he is still 21 years old. Matxin himself, a quality scout, tracked down Ayuso as a junior and took him down the same path as Pogacar at UAE. After the Galibier incident, Matxin shrugged off any issue, and UAE are clearly very keen on keeping him onboard as they have signed him with a contract until no less than 2028. UAE wants Ayuso, but does Ayuso want UAE? The answer is yes, but not in the way the team is currently shaped, I assume. But that will not change. Pogacar is signed until 2027 (although rumours are of negotiations already for a lengthier and wealthier contract), Almeida until 2026 and Yates until 2025. Ayuso is young enough to wait for his opportunities in reality, but that would require him to stagnate in his current role and not evolve. Leading the team at the Tour de France is also pretty unrealistic taking into consideration his teammates but specially Pogacar who is seemingly still evolving every year. 

Ayuso has already consolidated himself as a strong leader. Although not always the most consistent, he has proven himself to be a great climber and time-trialist, winning Itzulia Basque Country and finishing second to Jonas Vingegaard at Tirreno-Adriatico this spring. But will he be able to take the next step with UAE? That is a good question, and there is a key statement to consider that came in the closing days of the Tour by team boss Mauro Gianetti: "Ayuso was supposed to do the Tour. Do you see him? No, he won’t do the Vuelta. I have a lot of strong riders to send there". Although not always the case, cycling features a lot of media training with riders and managers alike keeping issues private and avoiding controversial topics. The words from Gianetti were clear as water when it comes to how the team felt discontent with Ayuso, and are not on board with sending him to the Vuelta.

João Almeida and Juan Ayuso set Tadej Pogacar up for an attack on the Col du Galibier. @Sirotti

Ayuso, at the time being, is not scheduled to race the Vuelta, that besides the previous two riders mentioned will also feature Marc Soler, Brandon McNulty and Grand Tour debutant (and Tour de l'Avenir winner) Isaac Del Toro who is yet another huge prospect for the Grand Tours and will coincidentally also make his GT debut at the Vuelta (could he go down the same path as Pogacar and Ayuso? Possibly...). Talking in literal terms, Ayuso showed good form at the Olympics having recovered from Covid - he finished 22nd - and his addition to the team would make it stronger, we cannot argue against this. But if the team takes him he would have to be forced into a domestique role, something that has never happened in the past in a stage-race of this level. But the team already has so much climbing talent lined up that they likely will not feel the need to take this decision. Ayuso is left without a complete Grand Tour, an uncomplete season, and UAE is purposefully keeping one of it's strongest riders away from the lineup and simultaneously making him unhappy. A lose-lose, in my eye.

A lot has been said and written in the past few weeks about Ayuso wanting to leave the team. There is a major problem which is that he is signed until 2028 with a massive contract and termination clause of... 100 million. No team will buy this out obviously, but it makes it possible for him to somehow break the contract, quit or just refuse to race with the team. Breaking a contract is now not unheard of following Cian Uijtdebroeks' drama last winter and even now other riders such as Tom Pidcock also have millionaire long-term contracts but are in discussions to sign with a different team. Primoz Roglic's departure from Visma last year was a similar situation. It's not impossible that Ayuso may want the same, but fuel is added to the fire occasionally with believable false reports, even with some media outlets falling for a fake reporter account that stated he would leave.

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Vuelta a España

I have established that Ayuso's relationship with the team is not an ideal one. Cycling is at the end of the day a team sport and the Spaniard is in my fair opinion put himself in a place where he is not going to be defended by a few people in his team, and his departure would not be missed by some that's for sure. The thought of what Isaac Del Toro may do until the rest of the year will also be in the team's head, and if the Mexican actually finishes the Vuelta in a good GC position it will add another piece to a puzzle that feels hard to fit. But perhaps the most confusing decisions, or rather, statements, don't come from either Ayuso or the Vuelta. See whilst UAE is not eager to have him on the lineup, race director Javier Guillén has openly stated that he is trying to convince the team to have him on the race. He is one of Spain's most reputable riders and a headliner in both past editions.

Still during the Tour de France, in words to the EFE Agency, Guillén said Ayuso was confirmed for this year's edition. This was a lie. Just one week later he would state that he is not confirmed but that he is in talks with UAE: "As of today we don't have Ayuso's confirmation and I also think that there is a question to analyze and that is that the teams are made in advance. The riders have their preparations done and I don't think it's easy to remove a rider from a team to put another one." And publicly, he has made it clear how much he wants this to happen. "From there, as a Spanish race, I ask the team to bring us Ayuso. But I ask it with affection, I ask it cordially and I ask it understanding any circumstance. Of course, both the rider, the race and the country need Ayuso to be there".

'I ask the team to bring us Ayuso' is quite the statement from Guillén, which I understand but struggle to comprehend why he would say in public. It is already a desperate plead that looks bad in my opinion but it is also unlikely to succeed. The Vuelta will also not have one of it's stars because of the situation that has developed. I think Ayuso's participation in the race would benefit everyone but his teammates, and the management is not willing to make that compromise.

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