Maastricht - Berg en Terblijt, 252.5 kilometers
252.5 kilometers on a menu. A test of endurance, a race that features small but repetitive climbs in Limburg to make for what is one of the most unique days of the season. It is the first of the three Ardennes classics, and the one that suits the most the rouleurs and riders who are coming straight from the cobbled classics campaign.
Climbs come thick and fast throughout the whole day, it is unlikely that serious action will come before the final hour though as it will be crucial to spend as little bullets as possible In order to have the legs towards the finale.
Gulperberg (43Km to go; 60mm at 6%), Kruisberg (38Km to go; 700m at 7.3%), Eyserbosweg (36Km to go; 1.1Km at 7.6%), Fromberg (31Km to go; 1.7Km at 3.8%) and the Keutenberg (27Km to go; 1.6Km at 5.2%) will set things up and may see some attacks. Both in anticipation of the Cauberg, but also as some of the main favourites may find the right timing to make a move. Every climb provides an opportunity, and in these 16 kilometers you’ll see a lot of action off the front as it’s very hard to control.
The Cauberg comes with 17.5 kilometers to go, it’s the climb that used to close off the race. It still is the last serious climb of the race, but the attacks have to be done earlier. 800 meters at 6.5%, which then see a set of rolling roads where to make differences will be very complicated, sense of opportunity will be more important than raw power at this point, unless if a sprint is to be expected – which is unlikely.
The Bemelerberg is the final climb of the day, just 500 meters at 5.6% with 6 kilometers to go. It is a possible Launchpad but slipstreaming is very possible. From there on there will be some narrower roads, very fast all the way into Berg en Terblijt.
The Weather
Map Amstel Gold Race 2024
A breeze from the northwest. Realistically speaking, the riders will be changing directions all day long and so this is unlikely to make much of a difference. It may however, if there is a close finale, make in the run-up to the line as it is in exposed and flat roads - but even here the direction changes are constant. Still, there is a headwind in the finishing straight which may make the difference in a possible sprint.
The Favourites
Mathieu van der Poel - The World Champion is on the form of his life. Without injuries and illnesses for year and a half, he just keeps getting stronger. After undisputed wins in Flanders and Roubaix, he races a fourth consecutive Sunday on an explosive race exactly as he used to in Cyclocross. He loves the distance, he loves the short and sharp climbs and has good memories of this race; he will be the main favourite although that's not a good thing in this route as it's not so hard towards the end and he may end up being put on the spot more than he'd like. Alpecin do have a very strong team behind him however with
Jasper Philipsen as a wildcard and possibility if he resists the climbs well; in-form puncheurs
Quinten Hermans, Gianni Vermeersch and
Axel Laurance and eve if not in his best form,
Soren Kragh Andersen who is also well suited to this type of route.
UAE - The absolute wildcard team. They come here seeking a win and they can realistically get it. Six out of seven riders can be leaders. I recon
João Almeida perhaps does not have the explosivity, but is a card to play. The team have puncheurs in
Jan Christen and
Marc Hirschi, a very underated
Finn Fisher-Black who could be one of the few who can match van der Poel;
Juan Ayuso who will look to attack the toughest climbs and
Brandon McNulty who can climb but is extremely dangerous in the flat roads. The team have riders for hours of aggressive racing and if played well, they certainly can wear out the rest and ride into glory.
EF Education - The team's leaders followed a non-traditional run-in to the Ardennes, with the Region Pays de la Loire Tour where Marijn van den Berg won the overall classification and Ben Healy primed his form. Healy was second last year and has this as a major goal for the season; van den Berg looked in the best form I've ever seen at Brabantse Pijl and showed himself as a rider to attack even on the climbs although his power lies in the sprints. Add Richard Carapaz to the mix and we've got a very interesting.
Matteo Jorgenson - No beating around the bush, Visma have had a horrible few weeks. The last glimpse of glory was Matteo Jorgenson's win at Dwars door Vlaanderen and the American may be the one to bring the team back from the hole it currently finds itself regarding injuries. He skipped Paris-Roubaix, which did not suit him but was in the schedule, which is not the best of signs. He completely cracked in Flanders but I know that he can perform on races such as this with the distance. Climbing-wise, a victory contender in any sense.
Tiesj Benoot adds some depth to the team, although it's not above rival teams.
Mattias Skjelmose - The leader of Lidl-Trek showed great form at Itzulia Basque Country but lost the race on the final day. But here he will not have the same long climbs - where he does good, but has riders who can drop him. Skjelmose loves the sharp climbs, packs a sprint and is perhaps not as much covered as big riders such as van der Poel and Pidcock. For me, a combination that can earn him a big win, although I do think he has better chances at Fléche Wallone.
Max Schachmann - Seeing Schachmann at Itzulia was such a pleasure. It had been years since we've seen the best from the BORA - hansgrohe rider and I honestly didn't think we'd see it again. Back to good form, hopefully, he will try to improve on the 5th and 3rd spots of his last two attempts here in 2019 and 2024. Honestly, a race that suits him very well, and I hope he has the same legs that he showed at the Basque Country it will with no doubt make him a victory contender.
Matteo Sobrero presents himself as another strong outsider who can be dangerous.
Tom Pidcock - Third last year, I think he may struggle with the distance. Still, he built up towards the Ardennes, and he can certainly do these climbs with the best. He can also sprint. A rather irregular rider, but one that on his best day can win and so he can't be given freedom by anyone. Michal Kwiatkowski, defending champion, is also present in INEOS Grenadiers' lineup.
Benoît Cosnefroy - Winner of the Brabantse Pijl, Cosnefroy like the EF Education riders seems to have found his best form whilst avoiding the top races in the calendar. Second last year, the Frenchman has unsettled business as it was a photo-finish that decided his loss. If he is to win the Ardennes it will be here, he is a fearless attacker on the climbs but if he does want to win he will have to make his moves inbetween climbs where other riders may look at each other instead of sprinting into his wheel.
Michael Matthews - Matthews found his love for cycling once again and has had an amazing spring. He was second at Milano-Sanremo losing the race by a thread, and was then third at the Tour of Flanders - before being relegated. At the Brabantse Pijl his fragility was reminded however, he can always sprint for a strong result but is frequently put to work as he's a stronger sprinter than most. In a classic like this, when you're not actually stronger than others, it's a deadly situation. Thankfully he does have riders like Mathieu van der Poel who will take most of the attention, perhaps he can finally win it this year.
Maxim van Gils - Van Gils has been nothing but impressive this spring. He won the Andalucia TT, third at Strade Bianche, seventh at Milano-Sanremo and most recently second at the GP Miguel Indurain. A pure puncheur, consistent this spring and in the lead of Lotto Dstny. This is a rider who is climbing like an animal, and on ascents he can certainly form part of the winning group, but can also win if he finds the best timing inbetween climbs.
Israel -
Simon Clarke and
Jakob Fuglsang with plenty experience in this race but likely as supporting riders here...
Dylan Teuns is on superb form and will be looking forward to the climbs where he can actually make a difference even in a field as strong as this. Tour Down Under winner
Stephen Williams has dropped Tadej Pogacar at Catalunya and he is also a strong win contender if he finds himself in his best day once again...; whilst
Corbin Strong can also climb but should be saved for a sprint finale wherever he manages to find himself at the end of the race.
Groupama - Groupama with a trio of contenders, one in Stefan Küng who can be a threat if he finds himself alone off the front at some point in the race. Romain Grégoire and Valentin Madouas as further options for the French team who want to perform here.
But the list doesn't actually end there, we've got more riders very much capable of fighting for a top result on a day like this. Bahrain - Victorious has Pello Bilbao. Other teams have numbers to play with. Movistar have three fast finishers in puncheurs such as Alex Aranburu, Iván García Cortina and Carlos Canal.
Arkéa have Kévin Vauquelin and Vincenzo Albanese who can be played in different scenarios; DSM have Warren Barguil and Oscar Onley; Uno-X have Tobias Johannessen and Andreas Leknessund; Astana is led by Christian Scaroni, Simone Velasco and Samuele Battistella whilst Cofidis has Ion Izagirre.
Prediction Amstel Gold Race 2024:
*** Mathieu van der Poel, Mattias Skjelmose, Maxim van Gils
** Juan Ayuso, Finn Fisher-Black, Matteo Jorgenson, Max Schachmann, Dylan Teuns
* Jasper Philipsen, Quinten Hermans, Brandon McNulty, Marijn van den Berg, Ben Healy, Tom Pidcock, Benoît Cosnefroy, Michael Matthews, Stephen Williams, Kévin Vauquelin
Pick: Mattias Skjelmose
