PREVIEW | Amstel Gold Race 2023 - Can Tadej Pogacar win all three Ardennes classics?
Cycling
Preview. The Ardennes classics begin here! The three World Tour one-day races in mid-April are an important step of the season, with the culmination of the spring classics. The first of these three takes place in the Netherlands on the 16th of April and it is Amstel Gold Race.
As always, a race of endurance. Taking place in the hilly area around Valkenburg, it's a race that doesn't feature a single long ascent, but instead dozens of small climbs. There will be over 3000 meters of climbing in what is the most gentle of the Ardennes, but it's a race for the classics specialists - both puncheurs and those who typically thrive in the cobbled classics as well.
Estimated start and finish times for Amstel Gold Race: 10:20-16:50CET.
252.5 kilometers on a menu. A test of endurance, a race that features small but repetitive climbs in Limburg to make for what is one of the most unique days of the season. It is the first of the three Ardennes classics, and the one that suits the most the rouleurs and riders who are coming straight from the cobbled classics campaign.
Climbs come thick and fast throughout the whole day, it is unlikely that serious action will come before the final hour though as it will be crucial to spend as little bullets as possible In order to have the legs towards the finale.
Gulperberg (43Km to go; 60mm at 6%), Kruisberg (38Km to go; 700m at 7.3%), Eyserbosweg (36Km to go; 1.1Km at 7.6%), Fromberg (31Km to go; 1.7Km at 3.8%) and the Keutenberg (27Km to go; 1.6Km at 5.2%) will set things up and may see some attacks. Both in anticipation of the Cauberg, but also as some of the main favourites may find the right timing to make a move. Every climb provides an opportunity, and in these 16 kilometers you’ll see a lot of action off the front as it’s very hard to control.
The Cauberg comes with 17.5 kilometers to go, it’s the climb that used to close off the race. It still is the last serious climb of the race, but the attacks have to be done earlier. 800 meters at 6.5%, which then see a set of rolling roads where to make differences will be very complicated, sense of opportunity will be more important than raw power at this point, unless if a sprint is to be expected – which is unlikely.
The Bemelerberg is the final climb of the day, just 500 meters at 5.6% with 6 kilometers to go. It is a possible Launchpad but slipstreaming is very possible. From there on there will be some narrower roads, very fast all the way into Berg en Terblijt.
The Weather
There will be some northeastern wind, it will be strong enough to create some tension in some moments, but shouldn't be decisive in the day as direction changes are constant. If it comes down to a small sprint the riders will find a cross-tailwind to the finish.
The Attackers
Tadej Pogacar - The big question of course. Most will term Pogacar the man to beat, but the truth is in Amstel there never is a man to beat, it's simply a route that is too open for that. However Pogacar is a monster in any sort of climb, and if UAE can keep things relatively controlled until the final 50 kilometers (which is very possible, featuring Matteo Trentin, Marc Hirschi and Sjoerd Bax as domestiques) Pogacar could attack and anticipate raids. This is the least likely Ardennes classic for him to win, but the way he's raced in 2023 will make it hard for anyone else to match.
Tom Pidcock - Pidcock's history with Amstel Gold Race is not the best, but as long as it doesn't come to a photofinish he can be a contender. Either a winner or not even in contention, neither would surprise. Ideally, following the legs he showed in Flanders, he may have good form back and I will consider him a favourite. The team also features defending champion Michal Kwiatkowski, but more dangerously Magnus Sheffield.
EF Education-EasyPost - Because they have been in minor races they come under the radar but EF have a very strong team here. Ben Healy is just off a second place at Brabantse Pijl, he and Sean Quinn won stages at the Settimana Internazionale Coppi e Bartali whilst James Shaw also performed there. Andrea Piccolo is a strong puncheur too for such a race, whilst the team mainly features spring breakthrough rider Neilson Powless off Top5 at the Tour of Flanders, and also Mikkel Honoré.
Soudal - Quick-Step - The Belgian team lack Alaphilippe and Evenepoel, but on their best day they could honestly win this. Rémi Cavagna has been showing great form recently and although the race is hilly he can be a treacherous rider for an early attack. Meanwhile, both Mauro Schmid and Andrea Bagioli have the legs to match the best in these explosive efforts and both can certainly sprint, as long as they have a good day.
Benoît Cosnefroy - Cosnefroy was second last year here and is clearly a strong contender. He showed good form at the Brabantse Pijl's final kilometer, clearly has the explosivity and will be a contender for the win here. The winner on that day Dorian Godon won't be able to benefit from the tough weather, but in this terrain he could surely make a bid for a result.
Tiesj Benoot & Attila Valter - Tiesj Benoot is not a candidate for victory here I reckon because he lacks explosivity. However for a podium he certainly is if he finds his best legs. He teams up again with Attila Valter as it was the case in Strade Bianche. Both need to attack on the climbs and hope for alliances out front to prevent the need for a sprint.
Alpecin-Deceuninck - Two riders who will have their freedom and can be quite dangerous in a team that is highly motivated and in form. Gianni Vermeersch looked great at Paris-Roubaix, Soren Kragh Andersen looked great at Milano-Sanremo and the E3 Saxo Classic, both well suited to this route.
BORA - hansgrohe - Ide Schelling is in my opinion the team's best card here, if it does come down to a more compact race as he has a strong sprint. BORA have numbers, Sergio Higuita will also be dangerous, but both him and Jai Hindley will prefer the tougher terrain to face later in the week.
Rui Costa - Rui Costa has been building back up. In the past he's performed well here, he's a fan of long distances and these types of climbs. If he shows the same form he had over the opening months of the season the Portuguese is a strong contender for the podium, with Lorenzo Rota another card for Intermarché-Circus-Wanty.
Groupama - FDJ - David Gaudu will be warming up for the latter Ardennes classics but will be an interesting rider. Here however it'll be about Valentin Madouas and Kévin Geniets most likely who have better suited terrain here.
Matej Mohoric - A strong spring, but he's not had the same results over the cobbled monuments. Mohoric can at his best level thrive in this type of terrain, he's great at solo attacks and long distances. He can't match the likes of Pogacar uphill anymore but the climbs aren't brutal here.
Trek - Segafredo - Trek have Mattias Skjelmose as a good option, but at Itzulia he struggled when it mattered the most. Nevertheless he, Bauke Mollema and Quinn Simmons make for several cards to play.
Alexey Lutsenko - Just off a win at the Giro di Sicilia, Astana finally got a rider in good form and capable of influencing the races. The Kazakh was under-23 World Champion in these roads, he's not the first choice but in form he's definitely a dangerous figure for this explosive terrain.
Israel - Premier Tech - Israel have plenty cards actually, but I can't say that any give guarantees. Simon Clarke and Corbin Strong are both good options for a Top10 however. At their best level you could also perhaps see Michael Woods (who will prefer the latter classics), Daryl Impey and Nick Schultz fight for a result.
Bryan Coquard - Coquard can't be rated as a big favourite for victory, as if he was to be taken close to the line he'd be attacked. However he isn't a name nearly as big as some of the riders above, and so could prove an ally in a chase. Despite a long career in a difficult situation he keeps bringing in the wins for Cofidis and will be an interesting figure in a race that suits him. Axel Zingle is another card for Cofidis.
Alex Aranburu - The Spanish team did great over the cobbles but now find different ground. Alex Aranburu is another rider who's had a good display at Itzulia but he had problems with positioning. In a race like Amstel that's rather crucial into the climbs. Nevertheless his strong sprint will be a threat, taking into consideration that he's not viewed as a sprinter and more of a puncheur.
Matteo Sobrero - The Team Jayco AlUla rider will be a dangerous outsider who perhaps won't be covered by the main favourites. A time-trialist, he's shown terrific form at Itzulia Basque Country finishing close to victory on several occasions. The kind of rouleur who can deal with this terrain brilliantly.
Outsiders - A few other riders could be interesting in the fight for the race, albeit likely a minor result. Andreas Kron, Maxim van Gils, Mathieu Burgaudeau, Tobias Johannessen, Alexander Kamp and Warren Barguil are contenders.
Prediction Amstel Gold Race 2023:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Tom Pidcock
** Neilson Powless, Benoît Cosnefroy, Sergio Higuita, Alexey Lutsenko
* Andrea Bagioli, Ben Healy, Tiesj Benoot, Attila Valter, Ide Schelling, Rui Costa, Axel Zingle, Matteo Sobrero
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
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