"If Tadej Pogacar doesn’t attack on La Redoute, that’s proof his DS' still have influence" - Jan Bakelants believes UAE will have fear of Remco Evenepoel in Liege

This afternoon, Liege-Bastogne-Liege closes the Ardennes Classics and a mouth-watering dual between world champion Tadej Pogacar and the Olympic champion Remco Evenepoel is expected to provide some more blockbuster racing for fans to enjoy. The question of who has the advantage however, is one that is splitting opinion.

According to Belgian ex-pro Jan Bakelants, himself an 11-time starter at Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it might be Evenepoel that has the mental advantage after the Soudal - Quick-Step leader's performance at the recent Amstel Gold Race. "Yes, he came up short on Wednesday (at La Fleche Wallonne ed.), but I’d chalk that up to his preparation and the fact that he’s still coming back from injury. On the climbs, he’s not quite at his best yet," writes Bakelants in his column for HLN. "People say Evenepoel isn’t explosive uphill, but I’ve seen things from him in the Vuelta that convince me otherwise. He’s just not at that level right now."

"Sunday could be tricky again on La Redoute. If Pogacar attacks there, I don’t think Remco will be able to follow. And for me, that’s the big question this weekend: what will Pogacar do on La Redoute - will he go for it, or not?" Bakelants adds with intrigue.

It's the belief of Bakelants that after Pogacar's long-range solo at the Amstel Gold Race was caught by Evenepoel, UAE Team Emirates - XRG might be a little wary of allowing the world champion to go from too far out again in Liege, knowing the capabilities of his main rival in the chase. "If Pogacar does attack on La Redoute, chances are he’ll have to ride the final solo again - and that opens up the possibility of Evenepoel coming back, alone or with help," he explains. "The stretch between La Redoute and Roche-aux-Faucons is long and suits Evenepoel more. There’s the Côte des Forges in between, but that’s more of a tempo climb. Right now, Evenepoel is most vulnerable on the explosive climbs. He’ll be hanging on at La Redoute, but afterward, he could close the gap."

"But maybe Pogacar does it differently this time. Maybe he learned something from Amstel - that it’s not always wise to drop everyone right away. Maybe on Sunday he waits until Roche-aux-Faucons to make his move," Bakelants continues thoughtfully. "Does he want that? Did Amstel make him reflect? Is he going to go for a bit of restraint - or is he still more interested in putting on a show?"

"I’ll be watching closely. If he waits, that tells me Evenepoel impressed him in the Gold Race - that he respects him enough to think things through. If he doesn’t wait, that means he saw last Sunday as just a bump in the road," concludes the Belgian analyst. "And one more thing: if he doesn’t attack on La Redoute, that’s proof his sporting directors - Mauro Gianetti and Joxean Matxin - still have influence. Because they’d definitely see the wisdom in holding back a little. But if he does attack? Then that tells me Pogacar is the real boss in that team, doing things his own way. I’m curious to see which version we get."