“I have never seen a favourite have so much luck on his side” - Chris Horner makes striking Jonas Vingegaard claim after Giro d’Italia rival list keeps shrinking

Jonas Vingegaard arrived at the 2026 Giro d’Italia as the clear favourite for the Maglia Rosa, but the first weekend has only strengthened that position in brutal fashion. Before the race had even left Bulgaria, the list of riders expected to challenge him had already been heavily reduced.

Joao Almeida, Mikel Landa and Richard Carapaz were all absent before the Giro even began. Then came the horror crash on Stage 2, which forced Adam Yates, Jay Vine, Marc Soler and Santiago Buitrago out of the race, while Derek Gee also hit the deck and lost more than a minute.

For Chris Horner, the pattern around Vingegaard’s 2026 campaign is becoming impossible to ignore. Speaking on his YouTube channel after Stage 3, the former Vuelta a Espana winner made a striking observation about the Dane’s run of fortune in major stage races this season.

“Keep in mind for Jonas Vingegaard, every one of his stage victories here in the 2026 season, Paris-Nice and Catalunya, all the top GC guys have crashed out,” said Horner. “Yesterday’s stage, with Adam Yates crashing out...”

Horner was not suggesting Vingegaard has done anything wrong. The Visma | Lease a Bike leader has stayed upright, stayed calm and shown strong legs already at this Giro, attacking on the final climb of Stage 2 before the race came back together in the run to Veliko Tarnovo.

But the American believes the wider context around the Dane’s season is remarkable. “I have never seen a hands down outright favourite have so much luck on his side as we’ve seen with Jonas Vingegaard,” Horner continued. “For the second, third, and sometimes fourth best GC guys crashing out at big-time stage races like I have here with Team Visma | Lease a Bike’s Jonas Vingegaard, luck is certainly on his side.”

The point lands heavily after a brutal opening weekend. UAE Team Emirates - XRG have been hit hardest, losing Yates, Vine and Soler after the Stage 2 crash. Yates had started the race as one of the biggest remaining threats to Vingegaard following Almeida’s pre-race absence, but his Giro ended after delayed concussion symptoms.

Buitrago, another rider expected to feature in the high mountains, also abandoned after the same crash and was taken to hospital for further checks. Gee-West remains in the race, but his GC bid has already taken an early hit after being caught in the same incident.

The result is a Giro that still has danger and depth, but already looks very different to the race many expected before the start. Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe still have Giulio Pellizzari and Jai Hindley, Netcompany INEOS have Egan Bernal and Thymen Arensman well placed, and Lidl - Trek’s Giulio Ciccone has started sharply.

Yet Vingegaard’s position has clearly improved without him needing to take major time himself. Stage 2 showed the Dane was willing to move early when the race situation demanded it, but the larger shift has come through the repeated removal or weakening of possible rivals.

That is the pattern Horner focused on. Vingegaard has the form, the team and the status of favourite. He now also has a race where several of the names expected to test him have already disappeared from the equation.

After three days, the Giro has not yet reached Italy. The mountains that should decide the race are still to come, with Blockhaus looming as the first major climbing test. But the road to the Maglia Rosa already looks less crowded than it did a week ago.