"He'll probably crash in Roubaix" - Belgian pro warns Remco Evenepoel to stay away from 'Hell of the North' and Sanremo

The spring classics are very tense races, and most of the riders fighting for the top results are specialists in positioning and also in the difficult fights for positioning that take place throughout hours. Remco Evenepoel is a rider that at times struggles with this, and his compatriot Oliver Naesen highly suggests Evenepoel to be very careful when considering racing Milano-Sanremo, Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix - which may be decided and announced in the coming days.

Right away, Naesen draws a line on what he believes is safe: "I would definitely stay away from Paris–Roubaix. Speaking of myself: I'm a risk-averse rider who has probably had eleven really bad crashes in his career. More than half of those crashes were in Paris–Roubaix," Naesen warned in an interview with Het Nieuwsblad. "Remco is physically stronger, but I'm technically better. He'll probably crash in Roubaix anyway."

Naesen, now 35, has raced against the likes of Peter Sagan and Greg van Avermaet as a direct rival in the late 2010's. He was an incredible performed in the cobbled classics, but despite his 10 starts in both Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, he was only able to finish on the Top10 on three occasions (interestingly, all three were 7th places at the Tour of Flanders; with a second place at the 2019 Milano-Sanremo also being noteworthy.

Incredibly, he has finished all 27 monuments he has started, but he has crashed on many times. Even when it seemed the least likely. In the 2017 edition of Flanders for example, he was in the fight for victory, when he and Peter Sagan crashed on the Oude Kwaremont itself after getting their bikes tangled in jackets from the crowd. Even when avoiding the chaos of the battles for positioning and the dangerous roads, in these sorts of races there are many variables and anything can happen.

"I wouldn't do San Remo for the same reason. You know, there, before the Cipressa—near Imperia, with all those bollards—we'll crash with forty riders. For me, that's 'accepted risk,' but for a rider with so many goals after the spring season?" Naesen believes Evenepoel is a tremendous rider and one with legitimate ambitions to win races such as the Giro d'Italia or Tour de France. Hence, it might not be worth risking such goals for performances in the spring classics, specially as with the stars of the modern peloton - such as Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar - taking a win is just incredibly diffficult.

"Even if we ignore the safety aspect: San Remo is so hard to win. Even Pogacar, with a perfect lead-out and perfect position on the Poggio, hasn't managed it yet. I'm not saying Remco can't win Sanremo, but in principle, the climbs are too short for him to make a difference." Hence, if Evenepoel were to choose one of the spring classics to make his debut on, Naesen would suggest the one where he has also performed best over the year:

"If I were Evenepoel, I'd aim for the Tour of Flanders in the spring classics. There, you can make a difference much earlier than in Sanremo, purely physically, purely on power." Flanders over the last few years has also become less and less tactical, as the climbing and endurance abilities of riders such as Pogacar and van der Poel make early attacks almost insignificant in the battles for victory.

"I would make a potential participation depend on what Pogacar plans to do in the Ardennes. By which I mean: if Pogacar starts in Liège, Evenepoel needs an A-level preparation for that race. With a stage race like the Basque Country or Catalunya beforehand. If Pogacar doesn't start, you can go to Liège with a B-level preparation that does leave room for the Tour of Flanders." This ultimately means that the Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale believes that Evenepoel should let go of the Giro d'Italia and instead race the Tour de France, if he wants to have chances of succeeding in the spring.

"I wouldn't do the Giro – which seems to have a patent on the worst weather in Europe in May. In Belgium, there's already a perception that every race Remco rides and doesn't win is a failure. That's a heavy burden to bear. Because if he does the Giro, he has to ride to win. And then to go to the Tour afterward... Pogacar can ride the Giro as a 'health walk' beforehand, but even Evenepoel shouldn't be following Pogacar," he concluded.