Analysis: Who can challenge Slovenia in the World Championship road race?

This Sunday, cycling fans around the world will be treated to one of the most highly anticipated races of the season – the men’s road race at the 2024 UCI World Championships. Held in Zurich, Switzerland, this year's race features a brutal route with 274 kilometres of punishing terrain and over 4,200 meters of climbing. With such a demanding course, the road race is set to favour both climbers and one-day specialists who thrive in the toughest conditions. Defending champion Mathieu van der Poel will be lining up to protect his rainbow jersey, but with top-tier challengers such as Tadej Pogačar and Remco Evenepoel in the mix, he’ll face a monumental task to keep it.

The race will begin in Winterthur, where climbing starts almost immediately, including a steep 1.3 km ascent at 10% gradient with 230 kilometres still to go. From there, the riders will grind their way through a hilly landscape before entering a challenging final circuit in Zurich. With such a challenging route, strong teams will be crucial for riders hoping to control the race, manage breakaways, and save their leaders for the decisive moments.

Slovenia

The team everyone is talking about is Slovenia. Slovenian riders dominated the 2024 Grand Tour season, and they bring an all-star team to Zurich, led by two of the sport’s biggest names: Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic. Pogacar, who is fresh off winning both the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France, and Roglič, who just secured his fourth Vuelta a España title, have combined to win all three Grand Tours this year. But both riders are missing one thing: a rainbow jersey.

This course suits them both to perfection. Pogacar excels in hilly one-day races and has already proven himself in long, gruelling events like Liege and Il Lombardia. Meanwhile, Roglic’s experience and form, as shown by his Vuelta win, make him a formidable contender. The pair have shared leadership responsibilities before, but the World Championships is a one-day event, which might complicate matters. Can Slovenia afford to hedge their bets on both riders, or will they be forced to rally behind just one as the race unfolds? Its more than likely that Pogacar will be their sole leader, but Roglic has shown time and time again that he can’t be discounted.

Whilst Slovenia boast a team to fear, they are certainly not the only team with riders capable of racing for gold.

Belgium

When it comes to strength in numbers, Belgium is consistently one of the most formidable teams at the World Championships, and 2024 is no different. Their leader, Remco Evenepoel, is coming into the race with supreme confidence. Having won the 2022 World Championships and the 2024 Olympic Road race, Evenepoel is an elite rider in one-day races and has all the tools necessary to reclaim the rainbow jersey.

However, the big story for Belgium is the absence of Wout van Aert. Van Aert was forced to abandon the Vuelta a España after a crash, missing his opportunity to race at Worlds. His absence will be felt keenly, especially since he was in spectacular form, winning three stages and leading both the Points Classification and the King of the Mountains at the Vuelta.

Still, Belgium aren’t lacking firepower. Evenepoel will be supported by an incredibly strong team, including seasoned riders like Victor Campenaerts, who has proven himself as a powerful breakaway specialist. Tiesj Benoot, another valuable teammate, offers strength in the mountains and on tough terrain, while Laurens De Plus and Quinten Hermans bring further depth to Belgium’s climbing capabilities. Lotto Dstny's Maxim van Gils and UAE Team Emirates' Tim Wellens round out the squad, with Wellens providing a versatile option for the hilly course.

Even without van Aert, Belgium has the capacity to control the race and set up Evenepoel for a shot at glory. This team will be key in policing attacks from other nations, and with the right tactics, Evenepoel could find himself adding another world title to his already impressive palmarès.

Netherlands

Mathieu van der Poel is the reigning World Champion, but defending his title will not be an easy task in Zurich. While van der Poel has been one of the most dominant riders in the Classics, winning the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix earlier this season, this course presents a different kind of challenge. The sheer amount of climbing could work against him, particularly if teams like Slovenia or Spain push a brutal pace in the mountains.

The Netherlands have brought a capable team to support their leader, but they will face a delicate balancing act. Van der Poel will need his teammates, including Oscar Riesebeek, Wilco Kelderman, and Sam Oomen, to help him survive the toughest climbs. Bauke Mollema, another key team member, is an experienced Grand Tour rider who could provide valuable assistance. However, van der Poel may find himself at a disadvantage on this mountainous course, especially if rivals attack on the steeper sections where his explosiveness may not be enough.

If van der Poel can remain in contention through the climbs, his chances increase significantly, as few riders can match him in a fast, technical descent or a small-group sprint. The Dutchman’s versatility and sheer determination should not be underestimated, but his team will need to ride a near-perfect race to keep him in contention for the win.

Spain

The Spanish team is built for a course like this. With multiple strong climbers in their ranks, Spain will be looking to play an aggressive game, especially as they have no single standout favourite but plenty of options. Leading the charge will be Enric Mas, fresh off a third-place finish at the Vuelta a España. Mas is in great form and has proven himself capable of racing the best time and time again.

Mikel Landa, Pello Bilbao, and Carlos Rodríguez are three more riders who excel in the mountains. Bilbao just finished second behind Pogacar at the GP de Montréal, highlighting his excellent form. Landa and Rodríguez were both prominent figures at the Vuelta, with Rodríguez cementing his status as one of Spain’s top young riders.

The rest of Spain’s squad offers depth and versatility, with Pablo Castrillo, who won two stages at the Vuelta, and Alex Aranburu, a classics specialist, rounding out the lineup. Aranburu’s abilities on rolling terrain make him a key figure if the race becomes more tactical in the latter stages.

If Spain can use their numbers effectively and launch attacks on the key climbs, they have a real shot at controlling the race. However, they will need to coordinate well to ensure their leaders are protected, and it will be interesting to see how they manage having multiple riders who could feasibly contend for the medals.

Who Has the Edge?

Looking at the teams on paper, it’s clear that several nations are bringing formidable squads to the World Championships. Slovenia boasts the impressive duo of Pogacar and Roglic, making them a fearsome duo on a course like this. Belgium, with Evenepoel, has the firepower to challenge, while the Netherlands will be banking on van der Poel’s versatility. Spain, with its wealth of climbers, could create chaos on the steep climbs if they attack at the right moments.

Ultimately, the race will be shaped not only by individual talent but by team tactics. Slovenia has the most balance with two top leaders and strong support, but they’ll need to avoid internal conflict over who leads the team. Belgium’s strength will be in their ability to control the peloton and manage breakaways for Evenepoel, while Spain’s aggressive climbing approach could make them a wildcard.

Who will emerge victorious? We’ll have to wait for Sunday to find out, but one thing is certain – the 2024 World Championships is shaping up to be a battle for the ages.