ANALYSIS: Can Mathieu van der Poel defend his World Championship title?

The men’s elite road race on Sunday, September 29th, promises to be a spectacle of endurance, tactics, and explosive attacks. As the marquee event of the 2024 UCI Road World Championships, cycling fans around the globe will be watching closely, especially to see if defending champion Mathieu van der Poel can replicate his heroic victory from last year. But this year’s race in Zurich presents a different kind of challenge , one that may play to the strengths of climbers and all-rounders more than powerful, explosive riders like van der Poel.

Standing in his way are some of the biggest names in the sport. Tadej Pogačar, who has had an extraordinary 2024, winning both the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France, is determined to add the rainbow jersey to his already illustrious career. Meanwhile, Remco Evenepoel, the newly crowned World Time Trial Champion and 2024 Olympic road race winner, will be eager to regain the world road race title he won in 2022. With a course featuring over 4,400 meters of elevation gain, van der Poel faces a true test of his all-around abilities, but can he hold onto the coveted rainbow stripes?

The Course: A Climbers' Playground?

The 273.9 km course in Zurich is an unforgiving one, with several long, grinding climbs and fast technical descents that will challenge the most seasoned riders. It’s a race designed to push every rider to their limit, and in many ways, it’s not a course that naturally plays to van der Poel’s strengths. With over 4,400 meters of climbing, the route favours lighter, more specialized climbers who can cope with the relentless elevation gain.

Unlike last year’s Glasgow circuit, which featured numerous short, punchy climbs suited to van der Poel’s explosive style, the Zurich route will see riders tackle longer, more sustained climbs. The key climbs on the route include gradients that stretch for several kilometres, a stark contrast to the more punchy terrain of Glasgow.

This kind of course will likely see a steady whittling down of the peloton as each climb saps the energy from the legs of those who can’t keep up. The final circuits around Zurich will be especially punishing, with their combination of sharp bends and long ascents, setting the stage for a dramatic final few hours of racing. For van der Poel, the challenge will be not just in managing these climbs, but in ensuring he has the reserves left to make an impact in the final stages.

Despite the course being stacked against him, Mathieu van der Poel has shown, time and time again, that he cannot be written off. In fact, his form heading into the World Championships has been promising. His recent victory on Stage 1 of the Tour de Luxembourg, for instance, demonstrated that he remains a force to be reckoned with. That stage, a 158 km race with four categorised climbs and 2,578 meters of elevation, may not have been as taxing as the World Championship route, but it did prove van der Poel’s ability to perform on challenging terrain.

In addition to that, his victory at last year’s World Championships in Glasgow came on a course with 3,570 meters of climbing — not entirely dissimilar to the Zurich route, although the nature of the climbs in Glasgow was more favourable to van der Poel’s explosive style. What made his 2023 victory so remarkable was not just the manner of his dominance, but the fact that he recovered from a crash and still managed to beat his closest rival, Wout van Aert, by a whopping 1 minute and 37 seconds. This year’s course may not allow the same kind of dominance, but if anyone can adapt to a new set of challenges, it’s van der Poel.

In terms of preparation, van der Poel has reportedly been focusing on dropping weight to improve his climbing ability, a move that could pay dividends on the tough climbs of Zurich. Known for his larger frame compared to the lightweight climbers he’ll face, van der Poel’s ability to manage his power-to-weight ratio on long climbs will be critical.

Physique: Can Size Work Against Him?

At 6’1” and around 75 kg, van der Poel is certainly one of the bigger riders in the professional peloton. This makes him a powerful presence on the bike, capable of producing the kind of explosive efforts that win him races like the Tour of Flanders and the Strade Bianche. However, on long, sustained climbs, that extra mass becomes a disadvantage compared to the more featherweight climbers like Pogačar or Evenepoel, both of whom are more compact and built to thrive on prolonged ascents.

While van der Poel has been known to grind his way up even the toughest climbs, there’s no doubt that this course will require him to ride more conservatively than he might on a course with less elevation. Reports suggest that he has taken steps to lose weight in anticipation of the World Championships, with the aim of improving his ability to compete on the longer climbs. But it’s unclear whether this strategy will be enough to overcome the natural disadvantage he faces against the lighter climbers.

The Rivals: Pogačar and Evenepoel

Perhaps the two most dangerous threats to van der Poel’s title defence come in the form of Tadej Pogačar and Remco Evenepoel — both of whom have enjoyed sensational seasons in 2024.

As a double Grand Tour winner this year, Pogačar enters the World Championships as the best rider in the world. Though he has never won the rainbow jersey, the 26-year-old Slovenian has all the tools needed to do so. His climbing ability is unmatched, and his tactical nous means that he can take advantage of any opportunity that presents itself. Pogačar has a reputation for launching devastating solo attacks, and on a course like Zurich, this could be his moment to claim his first world title. Van der Poel will need to keep a close eye on him, particularly in the later stages of the race when Pogačar is most likely to make his move.

Having obliterated the competition in the Olympic road race and recently claimed his second World Championship time trial title, Remco Evenepoel is another rider van der Poel must be wary of. The Belgian’s sheer power and ability to ride at the front for long periods make him a formidable opponent on a course like this. In 2022, Evenepoel won the World Championship road race with a solo attack, a tactic he may well try to repeat in Zurich. For van der Poel, staying in contact with Evenepoel on the longer climbs will be essential if he hopes to defend his title.

Conclusion: A Tough Defence, But Not Impossible

Mathieu van der Poel faces an uphill battle — both literally and figuratively — in defending his World Championship title. The course in Zurich, with its long, punishing climbs, will test his endurance in a way that last year’s route in Glasgow did not. However, van der Poel’s ability to rise to the occasion, even when the odds seem stacked against him, makes him a rider that should never be counted out.

Pogačar, Evenepoel, and others will be formidable opponents, but van der Poel’s unique combination of power, tactical intelligence, and sheer determination gives him a fighting chance. If he can stay in contact on the longer climbs and conserve his energy for the final push, van der Poel may yet surprise us all and defend his rainbow jersey.