ANALYSIS: What we learned from Stage 1 of the 2024 Vuelta a Espana

The 2024 Vuelta a Espana kicked off with a thrilling 12km individual time trial in Lisbon on Saturday, August 17th. As the final Grand Tour of the year got underway, UAE Team Emirates made a powerful statement, while some of their key rivals found themselves on the back foot.

Here’s what we learned from an exciting opening stage of this year’s Vuelta.

1. UAE Team Emirates Are the Dominant Force, Even Without Pogacar

UAE Team Emirates have made their intentions clear from the outset. Brandon McNulty’s victory in the opening time trial, clocking a time of 12:35, not only earned him the coveted Red Jersey but also signalled that UAE are the team to beat in this year’s Vuelta. McNulty’s performance was nothing short of spectacular, especially considering the challenging conditions faced by the riders who started later in the day when the wind had picked up considerably.

McNulty’s win highlights the depth of UAE Team Emirates, even in the absence of their star rider, Tadej Pogačar. Last season, UAE took their share of beatings as Jumbo-Visma, led by the indomitable trio of Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič, and Sepp Kuss, dominated the Grand Tours, winning all three. However, it appears that UAE have learned from those defeats and have come back stronger in 2024.

This year, UAE have already shown their prowess, and McNulty’s victory suggests that they are keen to replicate Visma’s success from last season. With the American now in the Red Jersey and Joao Almeida positioned as one of the key GC contenders after a strong ride that placed him 10th on the day, UAE Team Emirates have set the tone for what could be another triumphant three weeks for the team. Almeida’s time of 12:54 puts him right in the mix, just 19 seconds behind his teammate McNulty, and he will be looking to build on this strong start as the race progresses.

2. Visma-Lease a Bike Are Already on the Back Foot

The team that dominated the 2023 Grand Tours, Jumbo-Visma—now Team Visma | Lease a Bike—find themselves in an unfamiliar position after the opening stage of the 2024 Vuelta. The defending champions have struggled to find their rhythm this season, and the first stage of the Vuelta suggests that their challenges are far from over.

Visma-Lease a Bike had reasons to be optimistic early in the day when Edoardo Affini set a blistering time of 12:37, which stood as the benchmark for much of the time trial. With Wout van Aert still to ride, there was a genuine belief within the team that they could secure the Red Jersey and begin the Vuelta on a high note.

However, as the day progressed, their hopes began to unravel. While van Aert managed to better Affini’s time, the rising winds and the exceptional performances of their rivals, particularly McNulty, meant that Visma-Lease a Bike was unable to secure the stage win or the leader’s jersey. Worse still, Sepp Kuss, the defending champion, had a disappointing start to his title defence. Kuss, who played a pivotal role in Visma’s success last season, finished 53 seconds down on McNulty’s time, placing him significantly behind his GC rivals.

Kuss’s underwhelming performance means that he will now need to attack in the upcoming mountain stages if he is to have any chance of defending his title. The pressure is on Visma-Lease a Bike to respond, but with the team already on the back foot, it’s clear that this year’s Vuelta will be a far tougher challenge than the one they faced in 2023.

3. It Could Be Another Difficult Grand Tour for the Ineos Grenadiers

Ineos Grenadiers, like Visma-Lease a Bike, have endured a challenging 2024 season, and the opening stage of the Vuelta did little to alleviate their concerns. Once the dominant force in Grand Tours, Ineos have found it increasingly difficult to compete with the likes of UAE Team Emirates and Visma-Lease a Bike in recent years, and the signs from Lisbon suggest that this trend could continue.

Joshua Tarling, Ineos’s 20-year-old time trial specialist, was tipped as one of the pre-stage favourites, but he could only manage sixth place, finishing with a time of 12:38. While sixth place in a Grand Tour time trial is nothing to scoff at, it was another frustrating result for the young Welshman, who narrowly missed out on an Olympic time trial medal in Paris earlier this summer due to a mechanical issue.

The bigger concern for Ineos, however, will be the performance of their GC contender, Carlos Rodríguez. Rodríguez, who has been touted as one of the future stars of Grand Tour racing, finished a disappointing 49th on the stage, 46 seconds behind McNulty. This result leaves him with a significant deficit to make up if he is to challenge for the overall victory in Madrid. Given the strength of the field and the challenging route that lies ahead, Rodríguez will need to produce something special in the mountains if he is to get back into contention.

4. The Battle for the Red Jersey Is Wide Open

While McNulty’s victory has given UAE Team Emirates the early advantage, the battle for the Red Jersey is far from over. The opening time trial was a relatively short and flat affair, and there is still plenty of racing to come, including the mountainous stages where the GC will truly take shape.

Primož Roglič, one of the pre-race favorites, put in a solid performance with a time of 12:52, just 17 seconds behind McNulty. Roglič has a wealth of experience and has won the Vuelta three times before. His time trial performance suggests that he is in good form, and he will be one to watch as the race progresses.

Joao Almeida, as mentioned earlier, also delivered a strong ride, and he will be aiming to build on this in the coming stages. Almeida has shown in the past that he is a consistent performer over three weeks, and his time of 12:54 indicates that he is ready to challenge for the overall victory.

Meanwhile, the likes of Cian Uijtdebroeks and Adam Yates also put in respectable performances, but they will need to find something extra if they are to challenge the likes of Roglič, and Almeida in the GC battle. Uijtdebroeks, in particular, will be looking to improve on his time of 13:20 as the race heads into more challenging terrain.

Conclusion

The 2024 Vuelta a España is already shaping up to be a thrilling and unpredictable race. UAE Team Emirates have made a strong start, with Brandon McNulty taking the first Red Jersey of the race and Joao Almeida positioning himself as a key contender for the overall victory. However, the likes of Primož Roglič and the other GC hopefuls will not go down without a fight, and there is still plenty of racing to come.

Visma-Lease a Bike and Ineos Grenadiers, meanwhile, have some work to do if they are to get back into contention. Both teams have endured a challenging start to the race, and they will need to find something extra in the coming stages if they are to challenge UAE Team Emirates for overall glory.