1. UAE Team Emirates Are the Dominant Force, Even Without
Pogacar
UAE Team Emirates have made their intentions clear from the
outset.
Brandon McNulty’s victory in the opening time trial, clocking a time of
12:35, not only earned him the coveted Red Jersey but also signalled that UAE
are the team to beat in this year’s Vuelta. McNulty’s performance was nothing
short of spectacular, especially considering the challenging conditions faced
by the riders who started later in the day when the wind had picked up
considerably.
McNulty’s win highlights the depth of UAE Team Emirates,
even in the absence of their star rider, Tadej Pogačar. Last season, UAE took
their share of beatings as Jumbo-Visma, led by the indomitable trio of Jonas
Vingegaard, Primož Roglič, and
Sepp Kuss, dominated the Grand Tours, winning
all three. However, it appears that UAE have learned from those defeats and
have come back stronger in 2024.
This year, UAE have already shown their prowess, and
McNulty’s victory suggests that they are keen to replicate Visma’s success from
last season. With the American now in the Red Jersey and Joao Almeida
positioned as one of the key GC contenders after a strong ride that placed him
10th on the day, UAE Team Emirates have set the tone for what could be another
triumphant three weeks for the team. Almeida’s time of 12:54 puts him right in
the mix, just 19 seconds behind his teammate McNulty, and he will be looking to
build on this strong start as the race progresses.
2. Visma-Lease a Bike Are Already on the Back Foot
The team that dominated the 2023 Grand Tours,
Jumbo-Visma—now Team Visma | Lease a Bike—find themselves in an unfamiliar position
after the opening stage of the 2024 Vuelta. The defending champions have
struggled to find their rhythm this season, and the first stage of the Vuelta
suggests that their challenges are far from over.
Visma-Lease a Bike had reasons to be optimistic early in the
day when Edoardo Affini set a blistering time of 12:37, which stood as the
benchmark for much of the time trial. With Wout van Aert still to ride, there
was a genuine belief within the team that they could secure the Red Jersey and
begin the Vuelta on a high note.
However, as the day progressed, their hopes began to
unravel. While van Aert managed to better Affini’s time, the rising winds and
the exceptional performances of their rivals, particularly McNulty, meant that
Visma-Lease a Bike was unable to secure the stage win or the leader’s jersey.
Worse still, Sepp Kuss, the defending champion, had a disappointing start to
his title defence. Kuss, who played a pivotal role in Visma’s success last
season, finished 53 seconds down on McNulty’s time, placing him significantly
behind his GC rivals.
Kuss’s underwhelming performance means that he will now need
to attack in the upcoming mountain stages if he is to have any chance of
defending his title. The pressure is on Visma-Lease a Bike to respond, but with
the team already on the back foot, it’s clear that this year’s Vuelta will be a
far tougher challenge than the one they faced in 2023.
3. It Could Be Another Difficult Grand Tour for the Ineos
Grenadiers
Ineos Grenadiers, like Visma-Lease a Bike, have endured a
challenging 2024 season, and the opening stage of the Vuelta did little to
alleviate their concerns. Once the dominant force in Grand Tours, Ineos have
found it increasingly difficult to compete with the likes of UAE Team Emirates
and Visma-Lease a Bike in recent years, and the signs from Lisbon suggest that
this trend could continue.
Joshua Tarling, Ineos’s 20-year-old time trial specialist,
was tipped as one of the pre-stage favourites, but he could only manage sixth
place, finishing with a time of 12:38. While sixth place in a Grand Tour time
trial is nothing to scoff at, it was another frustrating result for the young
Welshman, who narrowly missed out on an Olympic time trial medal in Paris
earlier this summer due to a mechanical issue.
The bigger concern for Ineos, however, will be the
performance of their GC contender, Carlos Rodríguez. Rodríguez, who has been
touted as one of the future stars of Grand Tour racing, finished a
disappointing 49th on the stage, 46 seconds behind McNulty. This result leaves
him with a significant deficit to make up if he is to challenge for the overall
victory in Madrid. Given the strength of the field and the challenging route
that lies ahead, Rodríguez will need to produce something special in the mountains
if he is to get back into contention.
4. The Battle for the Red Jersey Is Wide Open
While McNulty’s victory has given UAE Team Emirates the
early advantage, the battle for the Red Jersey is far from over. The opening
time trial was a relatively short and flat affair, and there is still plenty of
racing to come, including the mountainous stages where the GC will truly take
shape.
Primož Roglič, one of the pre-race favorites, put in a solid
performance with a time of 12:52, just 17 seconds behind McNulty. Roglič has a
wealth of experience and has won the Vuelta three times before. His time trial
performance suggests that he is in good form, and he will be one to watch as
the race progresses.
Joao Almeida, as mentioned earlier, also delivered a strong
ride, and he will be aiming to build on this in the coming stages. Almeida has
shown in the past that he is a consistent performer over three weeks, and his
time of 12:54 indicates that he is ready to challenge for the overall victory.
Meanwhile, the likes of Cian Uijtdebroeks and Adam Yates
also put in respectable performances, but they will need to find something
extra if they are to challenge the likes of Roglič, and Almeida in the GC
battle. Uijtdebroeks, in particular, will be looking to improve on his time of
13:20 as the race heads into more challenging terrain.
Conclusion
The 2024 Vuelta a España is already shaping up to be a
thrilling and unpredictable race. UAE Team Emirates have made a strong start,
with Brandon McNulty taking the first Red Jersey of the race and Joao Almeida
positioning himself as a key contender for the overall victory. However, the
likes of Primož Roglič and the other GC hopefuls will not go down without a
fight, and there is still plenty of racing to come.
Visma-Lease a Bike and Ineos Grenadiers, meanwhile, have
some work to do if they are to get back into contention. Both teams have
endured a challenging start to the race, and they will need to find something
extra in the coming stages if they are to challenge UAE Team Emirates for
overall glory.