ANALYSIS: What does Tim Merlier's electric start to 2025 mean for Remco Evenepoel, Jasper Philipsen and the Tour de France

At 32 years old, Belgian cyclist Tim Merlier is experiencing a remarkable start to the 2025 season, positioning himself as arguably the most in form rider in the entire sport. His early-season performances have been nothing short of superb, reminding everyone just how fast he is and solidifying his status among the elite sprinters in professional cycling.​

But what does Merlier’s red hot form mean for him, his team, and the other sprinters? Let’s take a closer look.

Merlier's season commenced with a dominant display at the AlUla Tour in late January, where he secured two stage victories. These wins not only demonstrated that he was starting off strong but also set the tone for what has become an extraordinary season to date.

Even in January, Merlier looked like he was near to his best shape, as in the sprints his rivals simply had no answer for him. And things only got better from there.

Building on his early success, Merlier continued his winning streak at the UAE Tour in February, claiming two more stage victories in a field that included the world’s very best. His sprints were nothing short of sensational, as he outclassed the likes of Jasper Philipsen and Biniam Girmay.

These performances not only added to his growing list of accolades but also highlighted his consistency and ability to perform against the very best, most of which are considerably younger than him now.

Merlier's momentum has carried into Paris-Nice this weekend, where he astonishingly won the opening two sprint stages, and he may now be the fastest man in the peloton. These victories so far in 2025 have elevated his career win tally to 56, reflecting a rider in the form of his life at the age of 32.

His form in the early part of the season has not only brought personal accolades but also significant attention to his team, Soudal – Quick-Step.​

Merlier's scintillating form has led to his inclusion in Soudal – Quick-Step's provisional lineup for the 2025 Tour de France, as he return to the race after a four year absence.

His previous appearance in 2021 saw him claim a stage win, and his current form suggests he is well-positioned to add to that achievement. The decision to include Merlier alongside Remco Evenepoel, the team's general classification (GC) contender, presents both opportunities and certainly also challenges for the squad.​

Integrating a top sprinter like Merlier into a team with GC ambitions will require some serious tactical planning. Traditionally, teams focus their Tour de France rosters either on sprint stages or overall classification, seldom both, due to the differing demands of supporting a sprinter versus a GC rider.

However, Soudal – Quick-Step is confident in their ability to balance these dual objectives, and why not when they have one of the world’s best climbers and one of the world’s best sprinters too.

Team management believes that Merlier's presence can complement Evenepoel's GC aspirations. Tom Steels, the team's sport manager, expressed this idea, stating that having Merlier on the team could also benefit Evenepoel, especially in the early, often chaotic stages of the Tour. Steels emphasised that Merlier's inclusion was part of the plan even before Evenepoel's training crash in December, indicating a well considered strategy to pursue stage wins whilst continuing to support Evenepoel in the mountains.

Remco Evenepoel, who finished third overall and won the white jersey in his Tour debut last year, has expressed his support for Merlier's inclusion, as he acknowledges Merlier's status as one of the fastest sprinters in the peloton and sees his participation as a strategic advantage.

Evenepoel highlighted that on sprint stages, riders like Merlier and his lead-out man, Bert Van Lerberghe, can protect him during the race's early phases before focusing on their sprint objectives. This approach allows the team to pursue multiple goals without compromising Evenepoel’s hopes of challenging Pogacar and Vingegaard.

While the prospect of targeting both stage wins and the overall classification is exciting, it presents inherent challenges for the team. But what are these challenges?

Supporting a sprinter requires dedicated riders to manage the race situation, position the sprinter optimally, and control breakaways during flat stages. On the other hand, supporting a GC contender necessitates climbers and all-rounders capable of protecting the leader in various terrains, particularly in mountainous stages.​

Balancing these roles within an eight-rider team demands careful planning, by including riders that can support both a sprinter and a climbers. Soudal – Quick-Step must ensure that domestiques can adeptly switch roles as race situations evolve, providing support to both Merlier and Evenepoel as needed. This double focus strategy deviates from the norm, where teams typically prioritise one or the other, and simply try and manage and survive the races they aren’t trying to win.

The concept of a team pursuing both sprint and GC goals at the Tour de France is not unprecedented but remains relatively rare in modern cycling. Teams often opt to specialise, focusing resources either on securing stage wins through sprints or on the overall classification.

But, make no mistake about it, if their dual-leadership pays off, Soudal – Quick-Step could be one of the stars of the Tour in July.

As Merlier prepares for the Tour de France, he will be up against one of the most stacked fields of sprinters heading to the Tour in years.

Notable rivals include the defending green jersey champion Biniam Girmay, who made history in 2024 by becoming the first Black African cyclist to win a Tour de France stage and subsequently secured the green jersey. Girmay's consistent performances and ability to navigate chaotic sprints make him a formidable opponent, and he will not let the green jersey go easily.

Another key contender is Jasper Philipsen, who dominated the sprints in the 2023 Tour, winning four stages and the green jersey. Despite facing challenges in 2024, Philipsen's partnership with Mathieu van der Poel remains a significant advantage as the Dutchman, who is not only possibly the best classics rider in the sport, but just so happens to be the best lead out man too.

Then there’s the 24 year old Jonathan Milan, who may just be the biggest danger to Milan. The Italian will be racing in his first Tour this year, but the two time Giro points winner could just be the fastest on raw pace out of the lot.