ANALYSIS: The anti-Pogacar plan – the three riders who could stop his 2026 dominance

Over the past two years, professional road cycling has been completely dominated by Tadej Pogacar. The Slovenian has become the sport’s defining figure, winning across almost every terrain and style of race, with only a handful of rare defeats. As the 2026 season approaches, all the signs point towards an even stronger grip on the sport.

On Pogacar’s calendar for the new campaign with UAE Team Emirates - XRG are the following races:

Later in the year, he is also expected to target the World Championships in Montreal, the European Championships in his home country of Slovenia, and Il Lombardia. Once again, it shapes up as a season built around the Tour de France, the rainbow jersey and the five Monuments, especially Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix, the two he still has not won.

That is why the spotlight is already on three riders who could stop him from completely ruling the sport.

There is no need to overthink it. Those three riders are Mathieu van der Poel, Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard. Each in his own way, and on his own terrain, the leaders of Alpecin, Red Bull and Visma are the men most likely to challenge Tadej Pogacar and stop him from finishing yet another season as the clear number one.

But how can they do it? Here is where each of them can hurt Pogacar, and why 2026 might not be as straightforward as 2024 and 2025.

First up, the star of Alpecin-Premier Tech. Although his calendar has not yet been revealed, as he is still racing cyclocross in search of his eighth rainbow jersey, it is taken for granted that Van der Poel will target the spring Monuments: Milano-Sanremo, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix.

San Remo and Roubaix are where Mathieu van der Poel’s role will be most decisive. The Classicissima comes first, where the key will be surviving Pogacar’s attacks on the Cipressa and the Poggio.

Then comes the chance to beat him again in the Hell of the North, where Van der Poel has won the last three editions. A fourth in a row would also lift him to the top of the all-time winners list. At present, Tom Boonen and Roger De Vlaeminck share that record with four victories each.

If Van der Poel can beat Tadej Pogacar again in Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix – and keep him in check at Flanders too, even if it is harder there to live with an attack from the “little Cannibal” – then, whatever happens elsewhere, the two biggest goals of Pogacar’s season will already have slipped away. For the UAE Team Emirates - XRG leader, that would change the tone of his entire year.

Even if losing San Remo and Roubaix would be a major blow, Pogacar would still have plenty of chances to turn 2026 into another historic season. Above all, the Tour de France will again define everything.

If Tadej Pogacar wins the Grande Boucle this year, he would move level with the all-time record of five Tour victories at just 27 years of age. That mark is currently held by Eddy Merckx, Miguel Indurain, Jacques Anquetil and Bernard Hinault.

That is why Jonas Vingegaard holds such power over Pogacar’s legacy. If the Dane can win his third Tour de France, he would not only reopen the debate about who is the best Grand Tour rider of their era, but also block a moment that would live forever in cycling history.

Right now, though, the feeling is that Vingegaard may face a tougher road. He has chosen to ride the Giro d’Italia for the first time, which could be valuable preparation, but is still a demanding three-week race with huge climbing. Meanwhile, Pogacar looks set to use Romandie and the Tour de Suisse to arrive at the Tour in perfect condition.

Last, but far from least, is Remco Evenepoel, who ended 2025 feeling worn down by life in Pogacar’s shadow. At the World Championships, European Championships and Il Lombardia, the Belgian was clearly the strongest rider behind Pogacar. He rode solo in all three races, but only to finish second each time, because there was always one man ahead of him.

If Van der Poel is meant to handle the spring Monuments and Vingegaard the Tour de France, then Evenepoel’s mission is the back end of the season. Even though he will also go to the Tour dreaming of yellow, realism is needed despite his move to Red Bull - BORA - hansgrohe.

At Red Bull-BORA, it is widely expected that Evenepoel will take another step forward, helped by different training methods and a new environment. Perhaps this will be the year he can hold enough power to resist Pogacar’s long-range attacks at the World Championships and in Lombardy, two races where he is expected to line up, even if they are not yet confirmed on his calendar.

That said, the reality is still clear. Barring a major surprise, Tadej Pogacar will win most of the races listed above. There is no doubt he is already one of the greats, and that he currently stands a level or two above Mathieu van der Poel, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel.

In truth, the shock would be if he lost more than Milano-Sanremo and Paris-Roubaix. But the fact that there are at least three riders capable of stopping him in the right race, on the right day, is what gives 2026 its edge.