Analysis: Landa, Ayuso, Remco, the red of Sepp Kuss and the stage in the Sierra of Madrid

This coming Saturday we will live the last great chapter of the Vuelta a España 2023 in a torture through the Sierra de Madrid. In total, the riders will have to face a day of more than 200 kilometers that will be a continuous up and down that looks more like an Ardennes than a stage of a grand tour by stages.

The riders will have to overcome a total of 10 mountainous difficulties, all of them of third category. Obviously, if UAE Team Emirates or Bahrain Victorious want to have any chance (however remote) of trying to put Mikel Landa or Juan Ayuso on the podium or, above all, to take a stage win, they will have to make the day very hard from the start. If what happened on stage 17, when they allowed a breakaway to start, happens again, everything will become more complicated.

Seeing the level shown in the last mountain stages by Jumbo-Visma's domestiques (Kelderman, Gesink, Valter and company), it won't be easy for the Dutch team to control the race. We'll see if Bahrain will once again give the race a run for its money by setting the pace at the front or if, on the contrary, attacks will follow one after the other and the stage will turn into a madness with leaders and no support riders.

What is clear is that if there is a fight Sepp Kuss is by no means assured of the red jersey. It could be that Jonas Vingegaard or Primoz Roglic will have to jump into some attacks and that, due to race circumstances, they will end up in some front group.

As I said, the key will be that the interests of the fight for a stage win could unite with the interests of trying to blow up the general classification. There Remco Evenepoel, who is sure to try for his fourth win in this Vuelta, can be a key player for anyone who wants to blow up the race.

The last two climbs, the Puerto de la Cruz Verde and the Alto de San Lorenzo del Escorial, are not too hard, but after 19 stages behind and 8 climbs and descents and 180 km behind, they can do a lot of damage if, as I explain, there is pace from the start and a desire to do real damage. Alberto Contador proved in Fuente Dé in 2012 that, when you want to, you can. Will anyone dare?