ANALYSIS | Is Primoz Roglic’s 2025 season in crisis after Giro d’Italia disaster?

Stage 15 of the 2025 Giro d’Italia was nothing short of a disaster for Primoz Roglic. Once seen as the firm pre race favourite for his second Maglia Rosa, the Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe leader was completely out of sorts on Monte Grappa, the towering final climb of the day. It was a painful watch for fans of the five-time Grand Tour champion, who could do little more than watch the pink jersey group ride away from him while he clung on behind, unable even to follow the pace of teammates trying to guide him to the summit.

Roglic eventually crossed the finish line 1:30 behind Isaac del Toro, the current race leader and revelation of the 2025 Giro. That gap tells a brutal truth. He didn’t just lose time, he was dismantled and completely unravelled. He now finds himself 3:53 adrift of Del Toro in the general classification, barely hanging onto a place in the top 10. It is the kind of performance that prompts serious questions about a rider’s health, form, and future in the race. Given Roglic’s recent string of crashes, multiple in just the past week, it is no surprise that speculation is swirling about whether he will even continue after the second rest day. Rumours of a Giro abandonment are growing louder.

But is the situation truly as bleak as it seems?

Roglic is no stranger to adversity in Grand Tours. We all know that Roglic, for all his brilliance, has experienced his fare share of bad luck, crashes, and misfortunes in three week races. But this hasn’t always ruined his seasons.

In fact, if there’s one recurring theme throughout the Slovenian’s remarkable career, it is his uncanny ability to bounce back from crashes, setbacks, and outright disaster. To truly understand whether a Giro withdrawal is the right call, it’s essential to place Sunday’s disappointment in the broader context of his career. History suggests that what may appear like the end of a campaign is often just the beginning of another.

Take 2024, for example. Roglic made his Grand Tour debut for BORA at that year’s Tour de France. It was a relatively strong start; he placed third in the stage 7 individual time trial and sat in fourth overall heading into stage 12. But disaster struck on a descent near the finish line, Roglic crashed heavily and was diagnosed with a fractured vertebrae. He had to abandon the Tour once again, ensuring his French curse followed him from Visma to BORA.

For many riders, a season ending injury like that would mean a long recovery and a full reset. Not for Roglic, as just a month later he lined up at the Vuelta a España.

There, too, the early signs weren’t great. On stage 6, Ben O’Connor stormed into the race lead with a commanding win from the breakaway, gaining nearly five minutes on Roglic. The race looked lost already.

But over the following weeks, Roglic did what he does best, he chipped away at the deficit. Stage by stage, climb by climb, he reeled O’Connor back in. Despite suffering a 20-second penalty on stage 15 for illegally drafting behind his team car, Roglic took time on key mountain stages and finally delivered a solo masterpiece on stage 19 to reclaim the red jersey atop the Alto de Moncalvillo. He went on to win the Vuelta, his record equalling fourth title at the race.

In 2022, a similar narrative unfolded, as Roglic went to the Tour de France and quickly found himself in trouble again. On stage 5, he crashed into a stray hay bale, dislocating his shoulder, a gruesome injury he had to pop back into place himself. With his GC hopes dashed, he became a domestique for Jonas Vingegaard before eventually withdrawing due to the lingering effects of his crash.

Once again, he rebounded for the Vuelta, though that time his fortune finally ran dry. A late crash with Fred Wright ended his campaign and denied him another title, as Remco Evenepoel took the red jersey. Still, the mere fact he was back in fighting form, targeting victory in the final week, underscores his ability to bounce back.

Even further back, in 2021, Roglic’s Tour was wrecked almost immediately after promising podium finishes in the opening weekend. A crash on stage 3 cost him over a minute, and after losing more than half an hour in the Alps, he pulled out on stage 9. The season, however, was far from a write-off. In fact, he returned with arguably the best form of his career, claiming Olympic time trial gold in Tokyo and then destroying the field at the Vuelta to win by over four minutes, the largest margin since 1997.

All of this points to a crucial truth: Primoz Roglic knows how to turn seemingly desperate situations around. While other riders may spiral after major setbacks, Roglic reorients. His body may get knocked down, but his mental toughness, race intelligence, and ability to rebuild are what have made him one of the most successful Grand Tour riders of the modern era.

This context matters because, unlike in 2024 and 2021 when the Vuelta was his comeback battleground, 2025 holds a different target: the Tour de France. Roglic is slated to return to the Tour this July. That makes his current dilemma at the Giro all the more delicate. Does he grind through the remaining stages of a Giro where his GC hopes are all but extinguished? Or does he step off the bike now, regroup, and ensure he’s fresh and healthy for another crack at yellow?

There is logic in cutting his losses. The Giro is a physically brutal race, especially in its final week. If Roglic is indeed carrying the effects of multiple crashes (as his form suggests) then continuing may only exacerbate the issue. The best case scenario in the Giro now is a top-five finish at most, and that may not justify the wear and tear if the Tour is the ultimate goal.

On the other hand, Roglic is a rider who thrives on momentum and rhythm. Abandoning the race may carry mental consequences, too, especially if his form in the Tour ends up lacking due to under-racing or too much recovery time. He has often used the Vuelta as a chance to turn his season around, but 2025 doesn’t present that same fallback. If the Tour goes poorly, there is no Grand Tour salvation waiting in Spain this time, as that would be his third grand tour of the year. That could raise the temptation to dig in and try to salvage something here in Italy.

But above all, there’s a strategic difference in the timing. A DNF now would give Roglic over a month to recover, rebuild, and recalibrate. That’s ample time, especially for a rider who has shown the ability to bounce back from serious injuries in even shorter windows. If there is an injury (whether muscle or bone) that is compromising his power output, it is better to manage it now than risk aggravating it further.

Given all we know about Roglic’s past recoveries, the smart money may be on caution. Letting go of the Giro now could set him up for a renewed tilt at Tour glory, something he has never achieved, despite coming agonisingly close in 2020.

So no, it’s not all bad news. Roglic's Giro GC challenge is in tatters, yes, but his season is not. If anything, history suggests this is just the first act. We’ve seen this story before, plenty of times. And every time, Primoz Roglic has found a way to rewrite the ending.

Don’t count him out yet.