ANALYSIS: Can Tadej Pogacar or Primoz Roglic win the World Championships?

Slovenia’s dominance of the 2024 Grand Tour season, with Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic combining to win all three tours, is a testament to the nation's current cycling prowess. Now, these two titans of the sport are teaming up for the UCI World Championships in Zurich, where a climber-friendly course awaits.

This will mark the first time since 2021 that Pogacar and Roglic ride together in an international event, and the Slovenian team will enter the competition as one of the favourites to claim the coveted rainbow jersey.

A Perfect Route for Climbers

The World Championships Road race in Zurich will be one of the most challenging in recent memory. The route features 4,200 meters of climbing over a gruelling distance, making it one of the best courses for climbers. For Pogacar and Roglic, this presents an ideal opportunity to finally claim the world title that has so far eluded both of them.

While both have proven themselves capable on the Grand Tour stage, neither has won a World Championship title, despite their generational talent. Pogacar, a three time Tour de France champion, and Roglic, fresh off his fourth Vuelta a España victory, have often been among the top contenders but have always fallen short in the rainbow jersey race. In Zurich, they’ll be among the main favourites once again, alongside powerhouse riders like Remco Evenepoel and Mathieu van der Poel.

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Slovenia will also field a strong team to back up their star duo. Matej Mohoric, who has had a stellar season, is a dangerous wildcard and could play a key role in supporting Pogacar and Roglic. Jan Tratnik, who has shown himself to be a versatile rider, will also be vital for Slovenia’s ambitions. Three more riders—Domen Novak, Luka Mezgec, and Matevz Govekar—will provide the necessary support to ensure that Slovenia has the depth and tactical flexibility to succeed on race day.

With such a well-rounded team, Slovenia will be hard to beat. But, as history has shown, World Championship races are notoriously difficult to control, especially on a course as demanding as this one.

This isn’t the first time Pogacar and Roglic have joined forces at the World Championships. The two Slovenian superstars rode together in both the 2020 and 2021 editions of the race, though without the success they would have hoped for. A look back at those races reveals how challenging it is to translate individual talent into team success on the global stage.

In 2020, the World Championships in Imola, Italy, featured a hilly course, but it was not enough to shake off the punchy riders. Pogacar and Roglic were key figures in Slovenia’s squad but found themselves up against Julian Alaphilippe on incredible form, who ultimately claimed the victory with a perfectly timed solo attack. The race highlighted the difficulty of coordinating tactics in a chaotic and unpredictable race, even with two of the world’s best riders on the same team.

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In 2021, the World Championships in Flanders presented a different challenge. The route was more suited to riders with strong sprinting and punchy climbing abilities, and while Pogacar and Roglic both showed signs of strength, the race once again came down to an inform Julian Alaphilippe, who successfully defended his title. Slovenia’s star duo couldn’t keep pace in the final phases, and they left empty-handed once again.

Since that 2021 race, Roglic has not competed at the World Championships. He has opted to focus on other goals, leaving Pogacar as Slovenia’s key figure on the international stage. Last year in Glasgow, Pogacar delivered his best-ever performance at a World Championship, securing a bronze medal behind Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert. That race, held on a punchy course that favoured heavier riders, wasn’t ideally suited to Pogacar’s climbing strengths, but he still managed to shine, proving his versatility.

This year’s race in Zurich, however, is perfectly tailored for the Slovenian climbers. With more than 4,000 meters of climbing, Pogacar and Roglic will both be in their element, and this may well be their best chance yet to claim the rainbow jersey.

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Who Will Lead Slovenia?

While most assume that Pogacar will be Slovenia’s leader, given his status as one of the sport’s brightest stars, Roglic cannot be discounted. The 34-year-old is still in imperious form, having just won his fourth Vuelta a España title earlier this month. If Pogacar falters—whether due to poor form or an unfortunate incident—Roglic is more than capable of taking over leadership duties for Slovenia. The dynamic between the two riders will be fascinating to watch, and how Slovenia manages its tactics will be crucial in determining their success.

The World Championships, unlike a Grand Tour, is a one-day race, and anything can happen. Pogacar’s explosive climbing abilities make him the natural favourite, but Roglic’s experience and consistency make him a strong backup option, and perhaps even a surprise leader if the situation calls for it.

The Competition

Despite Slovenia’s strength, they will not have it easy. Riders like Remco Evenepoel, the reigning world champion, and Mathieu van der Poel, one of the most versatile cyclists in the peloton, will pose serious threats. Evenepoel, with his ability to attack from distance and solo to victory, will be particularly dangerous, while van der Poel’s relentless racing style and punchy climbing ability make him a constant contender.

Wout van Aert would have been one of the favourites for glory in Zurich, had it not been for his crash at the Vuelta that saw him abandon the race, whilst leading the points and mountains classifications. Still, with such strong competition, Pogacar and Roglic will need to be at their very best to secure victory.

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Slovenia heads into the 2024 UCI World Championships in Zurich with high hopes, and rightly so. Tadej Pogacar and Primoz Roglic, two of the sport’s greatest climbers, will find the mountainous course perfectly suited to their strengths. Backed by a strong team and riding on the momentum of their Grand Tour successes, Slovenia will be the team to watch.

However, the unpredictability of the World Championships means that nothing is guaranteed. Whether it’s Pogacar’s explosive climbing or Roglic’s tactical nous that carries Slovenia to victory, this year may finally see the nation claim its first-ever rainbow jersey.