ANALYSIS | 24.6km against the clock: Can Ben O'Connor hold on to the podium?

As the 2024 Vuelta a España reaches its climax, the final stage promises to be anything but a procession. Unlike the traditional parade into Madrid, this year’s race will be decided by a 24.6km individual time trial.

With the podium positions still in the balance, this stage could deliver a dramatic conclusion to the final Grand Tour of the season.

The Current Standings

As the riders prepare for the decisive time trial, here’s how the top five look:

1. Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-Hansgrohe) – 81:22:19
2. Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team) – +2:02
3. Enric Mas (Movistar Team) – +2:11
4. Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) – +3:00
5. David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) – +4:48

Primož Roglič, the undisputed time trial specialist among this group, appears poised to secure his fourth Vuelta title. Having won the 2021 Olympic time trial and sealed the 2023 Giro d'Italia with a stunning final day performance, Roglic knows how to handle the pressure of a decisive time trial. Although memories of his 2020 Tour de France collapse still linger, the absence of a certain Tadej Pogačar today means that Roglic is unlikely to face a similar scenario. The Slovenian has looked supreme over the last couple of stages, and will not need to take any risks in this time trial.

The Battle for the Podium

While Roglic’s victory seems assured, the real intrigue lies in the fight for the remaining podium spots. Ben O’Connor, currently in second place, faces a stern test to hold onto his position. With just nine seconds separating him from Enric Mas and a 58 second cushion over Richard Carapaz, the Australian must deliver one of the best time trials of his career to maintain his place on the podium.

O’Connor has been one of the standout performers of this year’s Vuelta. His remarkable consistency saw him don the red jersey from stage 6 to stage 19, and he now stands on the brink of his first Grand Tour podium. However, his time trialling abilities may give his fans some cause for concern.

The Vuelta began with a 13.6km time trial in Lisbon, where O’Connor finished 58th, 35 seconds behind Roglič. On that day, he also trailed Enric Mas and Richard Carapaz, who finished 32nd and 35th respectively. While those results may not inspire confidence, O’Connor’s form has improved since then.

Earlier this year, at the Giro d’Italia, O’Connor produced strong performances in the time trials, finishing 7th and 11th on two crucial stages. This is the sort of performance that O’Connor will hope to replicate on this final grand tour stage of 2024. The flat profile of today’s course may not suit his climbing strengths, but O’Connor’s determination and resilience have seen him overcome tougher challenges.

Enric Mas, a two-time Vuelta runner-up, knows what it takes to deliver on the final day. The Spaniard’s consistency in Grand Tours is well-documented, and his ability to perform under pressure makes him a serious threat to O’Connor’s second place ambitions. Mas is not known for his time trial prowess, but his performance on the opening day in Lisbon, where he finished ahead of both Carapaz and O’Connor, suggests he could pull off a surprise.

Mas has built his career on consistency and mental fortitude, and with just nine seconds to make up on O’Connor, he will undoubtedly be giving it everything to move up to second place.

Richard Carapaz, the 2019 Giro d’Italia winner, is renowned for his attacking style and ability to seize opportunities. While he sits just under a minute behind O’Connor, Carapaz is the kind of rider who thrives in high-stakes situations. His time trial performance in Lisbon was solid, finishing just one second behind Mas, and he has a history of delivering in crucial moments.

Carapaz’s aggressive racing style could see him take risks on the technical sections of today’s course, hoping to close the gap and potentially leapfrog both O’Connor and Mas. Though he is not the favorite to win the stage, Carapaz is not one to be underestimated.

David Gaudu, currently in fifth place, is an outsider for the podium. The Frenchman has had a strong Vuelta, but his time trial performances have historically been a weak point. Gaudu finished 55th in the Lisbon time trial, just one second ahead of O’Connor, and has shown little to suggest he can gain significant time on his rivals today.

While a podium finish may be out of reach, Gaudu will be focused on defending his position in the top five and finishing the Vuelta on a high note.

The 24.6km time trial route is relatively flat, with a few technical sections that could catch out the unwary. The riders will need to manage their efforts carefully, balancing speed on the straights with precision on the corners. For the top five, every second will count, and a small mistake could mean the difference between a podium finish and a missed opportunity.

Roglič, with his wealth of experience and strong time trialling pedigree, is expected to excel on this course. The real tension, however, will be in the fight for second and third place. O’Connor, Mas, and Carapaz will all need to deliver their best performances of the race to secure their spots on the podium.

Conclusion: A Grand Finale

As the riders roll down the start ramp for the final time in this year’s Vuelta, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Roglič is on the verge of yet another Grand Tour victory, while O’Connor, Mas, and Carapaz are set for an intense battle for the remaining podium positions. Today’s time trial will not only decide the winner of the 2024 Vuelta a España but will also provide a thrilling conclusion to what has been another spectacular three weeks in Spain.

The final stage is set to be a true test of nerves, technique, and determination. For the riders, the glory of Madrid awaits, but only after they have faced one last challenge against the clock.