Volta a Catalunya 2026 stage 1 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Vingegaard, Pidcock and Evenepoel fight for win on explosive hilly finish
CyclingSunday, 22 March 2026 at 18:31
The 2026 Volta a Catalunya takes place from the 23rd to the 29th of March. The Catalan race has been widely regarded as the most important mountain test throughout the spring and is one of the most difficult races outside of the Grand Tours; which often sees many of the best climbers in the world go head-to-head in the Pyrenees. We preview stage 1, which is expected to start and finish at 13:00 and 17:00CET.
The race was first held in 1911, won by Sebastián Masdeu at the time. The race stopped during World War 1 but not during World War 2, remaining one of the top races in the calendar throughout those years. It is not only an event that holds great importance currently, as in the past none other than Jacques Anquetil and Eddy Merckx won it on consecutive occasions. The race's winner list is no joke, featuring the likes of Felice Gimondi, Bernard Thévenet, Freddy Maertens, Francesco Moser, Sean Kelly, Robert Millar, Miguel Induráin and Fernando Escartin still in the 20th century.
This century the race has become part of the then-created World Tour and has been won by Spain's golden generation with Alberto Contador (later removed), Alejandro Valverde and Joaquím Rodríguez all in the winner list; Nairo Quintana, Richie Porte and most recently two Slovenians have won the race. In 2024 Tadej Pogacar took the title and in 2025 Primoz Roglic did it for the second time in his career.
Profile stage 1: Sant Feliu de Guíxols - Sant Feliu de Guíxols
Sant Feliu de Guíxols - Sant Feliu de Guíxols, 172.6 kilometers
The race begins, as usual, in Sant Feliu de Guíxols, on the Mediterraneen coast. It is a day where the sprinters, classics riders and GC specialists can all fight for the stage win; whilst the overall classification is always at play in the treacherous finale.
At first glance the stage does not seem too difficult, with a few climbs in the first two third however nothing excessive. The riders arrive to the key part of the stage relatively fresh, however it is the final 23 kilometers that really create damage.
That is because the riders take on a road which is famously a non-stop twist-and-turn, with several small climbs and technical descents. These are roads where positioning is absolutely key and so there will constantly be a very high pace over terrain where the peloton will inevitably be stretched and with several climbs to tackle.
Whilst attacks aren't likely to succeed here, there is a very technical descent all the way into the final kilometer where last year Tibor del Grosso almost took a breakthrough win on the road. The final. The final 600 meters then average 5%, a sprint that is by no means easy and can in itself be a massive barrier for the sprinters.
The Favourites
Although it does not look like it much on paper, this is a GC day. Positioning is an absolute priority for all GC teams and they all have to battle not to lose time in a stage that, in comparison to the three mountain days, has nothing to do. But time can be lost in a finale that is so explosive and technical, whilst the uphill sprint means splits are likely.
Hence, don't make exceptions regarding which GC men will be up there, they all will be. But a few can also fight for the stage win, and will be the main favourites even. In 2023 Remco Evenepoel was second here but showed that with good legs he is a clear favourite. He and Tom Pidcock are two riders that pack a very strong sprint and are absolutely big contenders to win here.
But even amongst the climbers there are so many that sprint very well. If INEOS can't rely on Dorian Godon, Oscar Onley can without a doubt pull it off; Lidl-Trek have both Giulio Ciccone and Mattias Skjelmose to play; David Gaudu performs only a few days a year but at the Vuelta last year he beat none other than Jonas Vingegaard and Mads Pedersen in a hilly sprint...
There is Lenny Martínez, in incredible form and very explosive, fresh off just having beaten Jonas Vingegaard in the final sprint at Paris-Nice (as well as Santiago Buitrago who can do quite well as well). And of course Vingegaard himself, who will be aiming for bonus seconds and not losing time on his rivals.
When it comes to the sprinters, there are a few options. INEOS Grenadiers is the most obvious cause with Dorian Godon, fresh off a Paris-Nice win, however the team has to manage that with the fact that they have to protect Oscar Onley and Carlos Rodríguez as well.
There is Magnus Cort Nielsen who can do something if he has the form, however I don't think that is much the case; whilst Henok Mulubrhan is also a specialist in this kind of explosive finale and could surprise.
I think it's in NSN where the the wildcards are, the only actual sprinter team who will aim for a result here. Ethan Vernon can certainly hunt the stage win if he is able to arrive to the final climb in position, but that is a very difficult task. However he and Brady Gilmore are both well adapted to such a finale and there is a chance that sprinter may still win it.
Prediction Volta a Catalunya 2026 stage 1:
*** Remco Evenepoel, Tom Pidcock
** Dorian Godon, Ethan Vernon, Giulio Ciccone, Lenny Martínez
* Jonas Vingegaard, Mattias Skjelmose, Oscar Onley, David Gaudu, Magnus Cort NIelsen, Henok Mulubrhan, Brady Gilmore
** Dorian Godon, Ethan Vernon, Giulio Ciccone, Lenny Martínez
* Jonas Vingegaard, Mattias Skjelmose, Oscar Onley, David Gaudu, Magnus Cort NIelsen, Henok Mulubrhan, Brady Gilmore
Pick: Tom Pidcock
How: Reduced bunch sprint.
Original: Rúben Silva
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- Thats a fair point. Matthieu didn't look good after the crash&chase and it surely drained him. But you shouldn't discredit the influence the crash had on Tadej too. Basically we could say the chances had even out if they both fell and cheased. Maybe Matthieu would have stayed with them. Maybe it would look the same. Or maybe Tadej's attack would be even more devastating. We cannot know it. Everything will remain just a pure speculation.BenAflec22-03-2026
- MVDP had 3 bloody/cut fingers due it the crash-- no question that affected his performance (as he said)-- i think he would have stayed with Pog & won the sprint otherwise....Xrider5122-03-2026
- Quintana had a great period from 2103 to 2016, but eventually faded into the background. Still, 51 wins is impressive! The article leaves out the doping and painkiller allegations that derailed his career a few years ago, for which he lost much respect. It’s good to see him leave on his own terms, and maybe one of his accelerations will stick again, this year - but he’s a rider from another decade, and I doubt they will. Still fun to watch, though!RidesHills22-03-2026
- Pogacar seems motivated by losses (each loss makes him more focused on the win), and by crashes. This crash led to a chase, an attack at just the right moment, and so on. The 2025 Strade Bianchi crash led to a chase, a truce with Pidcock, and an attack at just the right moment. The 2021 Strade Bianchi win came after he was part of that truly crazy wind-blown insanity (with Alaphilippe crashing and wisely leaping out of the way of those who crashed after him). In all three cases, he was up and on his bike as quickly as possible, faster than nearly anyone else, pure focus, pure determination. It’s like he sprints away from the crash, rushing to get back. Perhaps the crashes focus his mind even more than before and produce what seems like an angry response, “not like this, how dare you take away my chance!”RidesHills22-03-2026
- You forget him leading our Jasper the disaster after he begged in MSR a couple of years back - vdp totally could have won that year as wellCrashjames22-03-2026
- Looking at the strade numbers it seems Pog was 40w faster in 26 than 25 - more than 10% - at this stage in his career to get 10% faster in a year? Sadly it makes me wonder how that’s possible without “hep”Crashjames22-03-2026
- The only negative thing about this edition was that the sprinters had absolutely no chance. It reduces the spectacle when there aren't any sprinters who can contend. A route change can be done to fix this. Instead of starting in and winding about on the south side of the Po plain, the race should start in Novara. That'd mean that in the first 50 km they'd lose 80 m of altitude (in the current route they gain that amount instead). Novara is well on the north side of the Po, while Pavia is right next to it, so that'd be more faithful to the Milano to Sanremo idea. The second change is that Passo di Cadibona should be used instead of Passo del Turchino. This rises to an altitude of 459 m as opposed to the 591 that Passo del Turchino rises to. That's a very big difference which makes it better for the sprinters. Colle di Cadibona is also significant as it the official boundary between the Alps and the Appenines. If the tunnel is used then the highest point is 435 m. That route follows the river valley of the Bormida (as opposed to the current route which follows its tributary the Orba), and so the pass is lower. After that the riders would descend to Savona. The final 105 km would remain unchanged. Colle di Cadibona would be summitted 125 km from the finish, and though that is later than the 150 km that separate Passo del Turchino from the finish, that has no impact because it is an easier climb, so gentle it's not possible to call it one. With these route changes the race would be 298 km with 2010 m of climbing. For context in 2026 the race was 298 km with 2545 m of climbing. That reduction by 535 m is very significant for the sprinters. Crucially, these changes are all to the parts of the race which are not decisive at all, so the rest of the race is the same.
Rafionain-Glas22-03-2026 - As Orla Chennoui said "It's easy to say you let him go when you couldn't follow him" Unlike in 2025 the pace in the chasing group was very high, as they never gave up hope of catching Pogačar and Co. Lidl--Trek pulled very hard and the gap was very small. That meant that everyone was dead by the end. Wout, on the other hand, had to chase back alot, and due to the increase to pace on the Cipressa he only made it back before the Poggio. Wout could ride his own pace and didn't do any big efforts so he attacked. No-one lets anyone go with 2 km to go in Milano-Sanremo. Wout was just strongerRafionain-Glas22-03-2026
- I MVDP is a team player when he needs to be, but perhaps not as much as we would like him to be. But to be fair…Look at all those lead outs he’s done for Jasper. Alpecin had Jasper get him back after Cipressa but he had to fight for his own position. They didn’t help and guide him the way that POG had McNulty. I used to dislike MVDP because I started watching cycling through cyclocross. No my opinion is he just needs to win. So sometimes he looks selfish, but he was more than willing to sacrifice himself at the Tour de France and other races for Jasper.Cbastnagel22-03-2026
- I wonder if perhaps MVDP came back too quickly after cyclocross and potentially is living on borrowed form. He started winning right away when he came back to the road. It’s just a theory. A more important point though is that Tom Pitcock stayed with Pog This whole POG and MVDP domination thing is getting old. I find myself watching the women’s racing as it is less predictable. So I was Disney-Jacked to see Tom and even WVA give us so hope for more dynamic competition.Cbastnagel22-03-2026
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