"To be able to follow Pogacar will be a victory in itself": Bakelants doesn't believe in Evenepoel's Liege-Bastogne-Liege bid

The main cycling event of this week, the 2026 Liege-Bastogne-Liege is just around the corner. There's no secret who the main favourite is, however the three-time winner Tadej Pogacar will face some rather challenging opponents in two-time winner Remco Evenepoel and fresh La Fleche Wallone champion Paul Seixas. Neither of the two have defeated Pogacar head to head so far this season, yet this is the first time all three meet at the same race, which promises a whole new dynamics.

Although Tom Boonen always skipped Ardennes in his active racing days, the former world champion knows a thing or two about winning at the highest scene - and in particular that it isn't ever an easy thing to do. That is why it's quite intriguing to hear the Belgian praise 19-year-old Seixas for the mature victory at the appetizer race before this Sunday.

"With Liège still to come, he won in a very intelligent way," he states on the Wielerclub Wattage podcast. Seixas climbed the Mur de Huy with authority, leaving more experienced favourites with no cards to play.

But most importantly, it seemed as though he didn't pedal extra on Wednesday, something Bakelants fears didn't apply for Evenepoel, who had to dig deep at Amstel Gold Race: "That is why I am a bit more conservative regarding Evenepoel," he admits fears that the Belgian rider might not be in his absolute best. "Either he rode very controlled and intelligently in the Amstel on Sunday, or that flash of brilliance that will decide everything on Sunday is missing."

The two analysts seem to agree that what puts Pogacar (and now also Seixas) apart from Evenepoel is the ability to attack uphill by ramping up the effort - something they haven't seen in Evenepoel yet. "They layer upon layer," Boonen analyzes. "They start riding at a pace that would be a breakaway to someone else. Then they add another layer on top, and only then do they go."

Bakelants adds: "There is a kind of light-footedness in that which characterizes climbers, and which Remco doesn't always have as a time trialist." According to him, Evenepoel does possess "that one powerful sprint finish, like on Sunday in the Gold Race", but he can use that quality much less than Pogacar and Seixas.

So what are the options of Evenepoel if competing uphill is going to be difficult? Making the race hard by anticipating the others' moves will not be easy against the strong UAE lineup. "What are you going to do before the Roche-aux-Faucons? UAE really isn't going to give him a free pass," Boonen feels like there won't be an opening for attacks until at 15 kilometers to go.

Bakelants is, if anything, even more direct about Evenepoel's limited chances in Liège. "The cards are simple for Evenepoel. He will just have to follow," he states. "The only one who can ride away from the other top riders is Pogacar. Otherwise, following Pogacar is a victory in itself."

Although Boonen is cautiously optimistic that his compatriot stands a chance against the best, Bakelants is more harsh about the Red Bull rider's prospect for La Doyenne. "On the eve of the race, I am actually more inclined to think of a sprint between Seixas and Pogacar."