It is a judgement shaped as much by Pogacar’s 2026 campaign as his past success in Liège. Victories at Strade Bianche, Milano-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders have highlighted his ability to impose himself across vastly different race profiles, while his runner-up finish at Paris-Roubaix reinforced that even outside his ideal terrain, he remains central to the outcome.
Seixas emerges as the closest challenger
Whilst Nibali places Pogacar firmly at the top of the hierarchy, his analysis also reflects the growing noise around Paul Seixas ahead of Sunday’s Monument.
The 19-year-old arrives at Liège-Bastogne-Liège on the back of a defining week, having become the youngest winner in the history of Flèche Wallonne. That result, added to his second place behind Pogacar at Strade Bianche and his dominant overall victory at the Tour of the Basque Country, has accelerated his rise from promising talent to genuine contender.
“We’ve seen him battling against Tadej during Strade Bianche recently, trying and searching to keep him close,” Nibali noted, pointing to the first clear indication that Seixas can operate at the same level as the sport’s biggest names.
That performance has fed a wider narrative in the build-up to Liège, with Seixas increasingly framed as the rider most capable of disrupting Pogacar’s dominance.
Vincenzo Nibali at Milano-Sanremo 2026
Praise… but a clear line drawn
Even within that praise, Nibali’s assessment remains grounded. “Maybe he can stay close, but Tadej, in the end, is also faster, so I think it is still difficult for Seixas to beat Tadej.”
It is a distinction that matters. Matching Pogacar on a climb or over shorter efforts is one thing. Beating him in the decisive phase of a Monument, where strength, endurance and race instinct all converge, is another challenge entirely. “I don’t think he can already compete with Tadej. He is still very young.”
That balance between rapid progression and remaining gap defines Seixas’ position heading into Sunday. The level is rising quickly, but the final step and overturning Pogacar, is the hardest to take.
Evenepoel completes the leading trio
Alongside Pogacar and Seixas, Remco Evenepoel remains central to the race dynamic. A two-time winner of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Belgian brings both experience and proven success on this terrain. His ability to sustain long-range efforts offers a different kind of threat, particularly if the race opens up early on the key climbs.
Yet even within that elite group, Nibali’s view reinforces a familiar hierarchy. Pogacar is not just another contender. He is the standard against which the others are measured.
Tadej Pogacar during recon for Liege-Bastogne-Liege 2026
The challenge facing the rest
Liège-Bastogne-Liège has repeatedly been shaped by the rider capable of making the decisive move on the final climbs and holding it to the finish. For Seixas and Evenepoel, the task is clear. They must not only respond when Pogacar accelerates, but find a way to surpass a level that, for now, still appears just out of reach.
Nibali’s verdict leaves little ambiguity. Pogacar remains the benchmark, and the rider everyone else must find a way to beat.