"There's no course that can stop you" - Armstrong and Bruyneel reflect on 2026 Tour de France route and Tadej Pogacar

The 2026 Tour de France now has an official route, Lance Armstrong and Johan Bruyneel shared their analysis in his podcast The Move on what the race, the mountains and the favorites will be like. They especially focused on Tadej Pogacar and his mental challenge to take on the victory in his fifth TDF that would make him equal Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault and Induráin as the record holder.

Armstrong stresses that the design of the 2026 Tour maintains the excitement until the end: "Although we all know that there is a big favorite, the uncertainty will remain until stages 18, 19 and 20, because they are extremely hard". The race starts in Barcelona with a 19-kilometer team time trial, with two short climbs, a format that, according to Armstrong, "gives Pogacar an advantage, because he's going to have someone from his team who can climb those climbs with him, whether it's Del Toro or another teammate."

The total route includes 21 stages, eight mountain stages (five summit finishes), seven flat and four undulating, totaling 54,000 meters of elevation gain, up from 48,000 meters in the previous edition. Armstrong says the key stages will be in the Pyrenees, with stage 6 including Aspin and Tourmalet; in the Alps, at the end of the Tour; in the Massif Central, with a hard stage (stage 10); and in the Vosges, where Pogacar already won (stage 14).

On the finish in Paris, he notes, "There will be three times Montmartre, and the last climb is 15 kilometers from the finish. That gives a chance to some of the stronger riders, not so much to the sprinters."

For Armstrong, in the end "the strongest wins" and the big favorite is still Tadej Pogacar. Jonas Vingegaard remains his main competitor, while other riders like Remco Evenepoel, Florian Lipowitz, Oscar Onley or Felix Gall appear one level below. About Pogacar, Armstrong assures: "It doesn't matter the route. Once you're at the level of winning the Tour, there's no course that can stop you."

Regarding the stage 16 time trial, short and with the first 10 kilometers uphill, Armstrong warns that "it's not favorable for Evenepoel against the mountain specialists". He also highlights Pogacar's advantage in having a solid team: "If we say Pogacar is number one, Jonas second, the third and fourth places are probably in Pogacar's team. That gives him tremendous reinforcement."

The route clearly favors strong climbers. Armstrong stresses that the mountain stages of the last week are decisive: "These three consecutive stages will make the difference in the end, and although everyone has to be strategic, after one or two mountain stages we will start to see differences in the overall".

He also recalls the importance of concentration from the start: "Already on stage 3, even if it's not a high mountain, it's a mountain day. If you're not 100%, you're in trouble".

Armstrong also compares Pogacar's pressure to his own experience: "There is no rider who can ignore everything going on around him. It takes its toll mentally, but if you need to, you're a killer in the last week. It's just about managing the pressure and expectations." This year the Slovenian struggled in the final week with the fatigue, but ultimately brought home a fourth Tour triumph.

Finally, he highlights the hierarchy in the peloton: "The favorite is Pogacar. Second, Jonas. After that, those who occupy the other podium places will probably be in Pogacar's team, like Del Toro or Almeida. For the other riders, it's difficult to compete at the same level."

Bruyneel highlights the strategy of the Tour's design: "The route is very well balanced. The hardest stages are at the end, which keeps the excitement going until the end of the race." He points out that the Tour starts with a 19-kilometer team time trial in Barcelona, with two short climbs: "This allows you to see how the leaders are supported by their team, something that can make tactical differences from the start."

For Bruyneel, the big favorite remains Tadej Pogacar, with Jonas Vingegaard as his main rival: "We have seen in recent years that Pogacar and Jonas are a step above the rest. No one else has the ability to challenge them on a consistent basis."

He stresses that Pogacar has a very strong team, capable of placing his teammates in key positions in the overall: "If we say that Pogacar is number one and Jonas second, positions three and four will probably be in Pogacar's team, like Del Toro or Almeida. That gives him a lot of control over the race."

About riders like Remco Evenepoel, Bruyneel considers that certain stages do not favor him: "The time trial on stage 16, 27 kilometers long with the first 10 kilometers uphill, is a disadvantage for Evenepoel against the GC specialists".