Tadej Pogacar & Jonas Vingegaard's Tour de France dominance will last for "at least another three years" says Alberto Contador

For the last five years in succession, either Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard has ended the Tour de France on the top step of the podium, wearing the iconic Maillot Jaune. With both superstars expected to once again lead the fight for yellow in 2025, how much longer will their dominance last?

Well, according to Spanish icon Alberto Contador, himself a two-time Tour de France winner, we should expect to see Pogacar and Vingegaard at the top of the general classification standings for a little while yet. "I think this dominance will continue for a bit longer – I’d say at least another three years," he explains in conversation with AS. "I wouldn’t go beyond that, because we’re seeing a new generation of young riders breaking through very quickly, constantly improving and pushing the limits. So no more than three years, but yes, they’ll keep dominating in that period."

As for this year, Contador struggles to see past another win for Pogacar, despite his clear respect for Vingegaard. "Based on what we’ve seen so far, I think Pogacar is the favourite. But Vingegaard is a rider who already knows what it takes to win the Tour, and he’s also finished second twice," evaluates the Spaniard. "He’s extremely methodical, detail-oriented, professional, and never loses focus – a really tough rival for Pogacar."

Currently, the likes of Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic are thought of as the nearest challengers to Pogacar and Vingegaard. Contador though, sees a notable gap between the two peloton leaders and all their rivals. "On paper, they’re clearly on another level," he says. "Of course, we have to see how the Tour plays out and what condition each rider brings, but yes, they are definitely the two big favourites. I’d say Pogacar has a slight edge over Vingegaard, but they’re both the ones to beat. The rest are probably a step below."

In fact, it could be Pogacar's own teammate at UAE Team Emirates - XRG João Almeida, that is the closest to breaking the duopoly at the top of the Tour de France GC. "We haven’t yet seen what he’s fully capable of on his own," says Contador on the Portuguese star. "At the end of the day, he’s part of UAE Team Emirates and will need to work for Tadej Pogacar. But it’s also true that not long ago, Adam Yates managed to finish on the podium at the Tour while riding in support of Pogacar. So we’ll have to see how the race unfolds."

"We saw a very strong João Almeida at the Tour de Suisse, and now we’ll see if he can carry that form into the Tour. I think if Pogacar and Vingegaard weren’t racing, he’d clearly be a contender for the win – particularly in the Giro or the Vuelta," Contador adds. "He’s a very solid rider and currently in a great moment of maturity. The only thing is, he needs to be given the chance to go for it."

And as already mentioned, Contador knows exactly what winning the Tour de France can do for a rider's career. "The Tour is the biggest race in the world, and it was the one I dreamed of winning as a child – it was my obsession. I didn’t think about the classics, the world championships, or even the Giro or the Vuelta. From the start, it was always the Tour de France for me," he reflects of his relationship with the biggest race in the sport. "I imagine that’s true for a lot of kids, but for me, it actually happened – and without question, it’s the most important victory of my career."