Pedal Punditry #21 | Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel, Del Toro, Roglic... - Who will race which Grand Tours in 2026

As we enter the off-season, the peloton begins to fully rest up from a full year of racing, before they begin to think about the 2026 season. With no Grand Tour routes revealed yet, very little plans have been made. But a few riders have already announced where they want to race in 2026 when it comes to the Grand Tours, and we also look into the likes of Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel and all the main figures to understand what options are most likely between the Tour de France, Giro d'Italia and Vuelta a España.

Cian Uijtdebroeks has confirmed his signing with Movistar Team and will move to the Spanish team with very clear goals. He will race the Giro d'Italia and Vuelta a España next year, being given the freedom to lead most likely solo at the Corsa Rosa where Einer Rubio has been given the responsibility over the past few years. This most likely means that both Rubio and Enric Mas will be racing the Tour de France, with Mas likely to combine the Tour with Vuelta a España which is what he has done over the past few years.

Another rider who has made his intentions very clear is Mattias Skjelmose, as CyclingUpToDate could confirm before the start of the Tour de France. At the time he argued that he had somewhat downplayed his GC chances there, but had been promised full backing for a leadership at the 2026 Giro d'Italia. The entry of Juan Ayuso in the team could however change plans.

The riders above have not made their intentions fully clear, but before the off-season begins, there is a lot that we can interpret from the riders' words and ambitions. This is, despite the Grand Tour routes not having yet been announced - the Tour will be announced this 23rd of October. It is possible to interpret, taking into consideration the team's structures, what could ultimately be the plan of some of the main figures in the world.

The leader of UAE Team Emirates - XRG is most likely only racing the Tour de France in 2026, chasing a record-matching fifth win. This year he had planned to return to the Vuelta a España but combining the months of preparation towards the Tour, the Vuelta and then his many late-season goals such as the climber-oriented World and European Championships, as well as Il Lombardia, was simply not viable. Whilst different types of riders, Jonas Vingegaard and João Almeida's post-Vuelta fatigue showed well that if the Slovenian had followed the same plan, he may not have had the same results to show for in the end of the season.

In 2026 the World Championships will take place in Montréal, in another hilly circuit where it seems difficult that someone will be able to match him if he once again finds his very best level. Sponsor obligations and his own personal ambitions mean he is extremely unlikely to miss the Tour, and in the bigger picture it simply doesn't make sense. He wants to win big in the spring, so it's not possible to have the ideal preparation for the Giro d'Italia in the first place whilst it fits well with the Tour. Pogacar can potentially ride the Giro in 2026, I am of the opinion that his 2024 Tour following the Giro was his best ever and his preparation was absolutely perfect, combining the physical and mental level. But if he does, he will go in certainly without an altitude camp or ideal preparation, and he could well battle with a peak form Jonas Vingegaard.

UAE is a team with plenty sharks, and balancing everyone's ambitions is not an easy task. With Juan Ayuso out of the team it changes things, but with Isaac del Toro turning on the nuclear button this year, and João Almeida also at his very best level ever, then there are important questions to be asked.

In my opinion Isaac del Toro is 95% guaranteed to go for the Giro d'Italia, with backing that will be strong enough to fight for the GC win as happened this year, but this time around as a solo leader. It makes no sense to take such an outrageous talent to the Tour to be a second card for Tadej Pogacar after he was this close to winning the Giro himself, whilst although around the same level, João Almeida has more experience as a domestique for the Slovenian and is a close friend of him. I believe Del Toro may race the Giro and this time around then prepare for the Vuelta where he will co-lead with Almeida who will try to follow through with the 2025 plan: Tour and Vuelta. Almeida can absolutely manage two Grand Tours in a row so it does make sense to have him support Pogacar at the Tour and then have his own ambitions once again at the Vuelta.

Visma have some interesting choices to make next year. Vingegaard, now a five-time consecutive podium finisher at the Tour and two times a winner, will go into another season where he will be facing a Pogacar who is simply stronger and virtually impossible to beat. The Dane had proposed the idea that if he won the Vuelta a España, he could go on to race the Giro d'Italia next year as all of a sudden he is on track to potentially be a winner on all three Grand Tours - even before Pogacar is. It is the fully logic decision, the Giro route with a lot of high mountains is something that simply fits Vingegaard and with a more modest field he can win the Giro in his debut honestly, whilst he will then combine it with the Tour. I think he should do the 2024 Pogacar plan, with the altitude camp between the two Grand Tours but no racing, whilst also having a very light spring so he can combine his professional duties with family time which is a priority in his life.

If this were to happen - which I find it objectively likely, not just a personal opinion - Visma has room to move around their other Grand Tour specialists. Will Matteo Jorgenson follow the Dane to the Giro again? I would say he remains fully focused in the spring classics, then races the Tour and then potentially has freedom or his first Grand Tour sole leadership at the Vuelta a España. He's shown he can manage this heavy calendar this year, and his versatility makes him ideal for a large mix.

I would say Simon Yates would follow Vingegaard into the Giro taking into consideration his defending title and his love for the Giro as well as being well adapted to it, whilst Sepp Kuss would do the same and follow him to the Tour afterwards. I believe Yates could also do Giro-Tour, as he seemed to do so quite well this year. If Vingegaard also goes on to succeed at the Giro it would remove pressure from the Tour whilst giving more freedom to Wout van Aert who should combine the spring with the Tour after finally giving the Giro a shot this year - successfully.

Perhaps the big question out of the 'big 3'. Evenepoel wants to win the Tour de France one day, but he also wants to win the Giro d'Italia and on paper it is the most natural evolution. He is now in a team with several leaders in Red Bull and will be able to have strong support regardless of his choice, but the team also has to manage mainly the ambitions of the ever-growing Florian Lipowitz and also the veteran Primoz Roglic.

Evenepoel I can't truly say where he will or should race. I believe he will wait for Vingegaard and Pogacar to play their cards, and then focus on the Giro if none go there, or focus on the Tour if Vingegaard (at least) does go to the Giro. He wants to win a Grand Tour and no longer be second, but it will of course be a hard mission, one that can be influenced heavily by the routes however as his time trialing ability is key in his goal of finally achieving this. I would say its more likely for him to focus on the spring and then the Tour however, to give him more time to adapt to the team, its material and new ways of working, whilst giving Florian Lipowitz the lead at the Giro d'Italia.

Lipowitz was third at the Tour, with an extraordinary level this year, which honestly can't realistically be improved in 2026. Having sole leadership at the Giro, likely with Giulio Pellizzari and potentially Jai Hindley there so as to make for a team capable of contesting for victory, makes full sense and he's given the team trust that he can do it. Evenepoel in the meantime would race the Tour and do what he knows he can do, whilst Primoz Roglic will join him at the Tour. Roglic I believe can work for his teammates, but has been put in a complicated position where he does have to sacrifice some of his personal ambitions as the team grows in level and sees two big GT leaders now onboard and above him in the hierarchy. Roglic will want to win the Tour de Suisse, his final 'big' World Tour stage-race, and perhaps he can focus on a more loose and different type of calendar where he can enjoy the lack of pressure he has seemed to find.

Pidcock's calendar choice is a big question because it does fully depend on whether Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team get invited to the Giro d'Italia or Tour de France. Not being chosen to one would right away end the wondering. I think Q36.5 can get a confirmed wildcard for the Giro, but in order to prepare properly for it as he did for the Vuelta, he would have to sacrifice some of his ambitions in the spring. I think he is willing to do that however, he wants to succeed in the three-week races and will be highly motivated after what he achieved this summer.

However he is a rider used to the high exposure, pressure and heat and ultimately the Tour does usually suit him better. Q36.5 should put all their chips into the Tour, promising a presence and full focus from the Briton as well as many of their newly-signed quality riders who put the team at par with many World Tour outfits, and then go all-in for GC where I think he can realistically fight for a Top5.

The Spaniard is an interesting character, now in another team with some big dynamics at play. Mads Pedersen and Jonathan Milan both want the Tour de France (whilst Milan needs his leadout men) and Mattias Skjelmose wants a leadership and full support at the Giro. How I would fit this would be to have Skjelmose at the Giro with a strong support crew and a Mads Pedersen who is always willing to help his compatriot. Then at the Tour, take Milan and his leadout for the pure sprints, Mads Pedersen potentially to help there but more to chase stage wins and support Juan Ayuso for the GC. A big ask yes, and Ayuso does have to prove that he is worthy of having big support at the Tour, but I think he will be able to do that, and somehow work on the situation that has developed even before he joins the team.

The Giro does make sense for Ayuso but if he was going over Skjelmose's goals that would be a direct blow to the Dane's motivation and bad for the environment of a team that is known to fit things well. Ayuso won't want that either, there's nothing to gain for him, so the Tour is the way to go.

Onley finished fourth at this year's Tour and I think that will always be hard to improve and he should change goals next year, to try and focus on the Giro and a potential Grand Tour podium. Let's be real, Picnic PostNL do not have a team capable of thriving in a Grand Tour if its actually put under pressure. The Scot benefited from the UAE-Visma battle which led every single mountain stage throughout the Tour, and only needed to rely on his legs most of the time.

At the Giro he can improve, he can find a new motivating goal, whilst I think that if he returns to the Tour a fourth is already the very best he can achieve once again and it may not be the best mentally.

There are no big plans announced by the team or its riders so its a matter of piecing the puzzle together, and it's not an easy one. Bahrain have something interesting which is that it has many quality riders, but they all have around the same quality and can't really match the world's best at the moment. Lenny Martínez fits in the Tour de France for obvious reasons and he will likely combine it with the Ardennes.

Antonio Tiberi and Damiano Caruso naturally fit in the Giro but they have done it very often over the past few years that I think a change of air could benefit Tiberi mainly who has been eyeing the same goals a lot throughout the past few seasons. Santiago Buitrago I feel like wherever he starts he will have just about the same ambitions of a Top10 and stage win and it doesn't really make a difference in which one it is; whilst the team also has Pello Bilbao and the rising Afonso Eulálio who can realistically do some very interesting things in Grand Tours as stage hunters, domestiques but also potentially leaders depending on the race situation and the competition.

The French team grows in size and ambitions, and with that comes some pressure too. Elephant in the room: Paul Seixas - What can he do? The sky is the limit for the Frenchman, but we know he will not race the Tour de France yet, and he really shouldn't because the French will go crazy for him and put an insane amount of pressure that even he - who seems well adapted to it - may not be able to handle healthily. The Giro d'Italia makes sense in my opinion, but honestly I would rather have him skip both and instead fully focus on a Vuelta GC stint as his first. It's the most relaxed of Grand Tours and it will give him more time to develop as well as certainly better chances of a lead.

The team has Felix Gall, whom I believe should finally go for the Giro where the high mountains can do him good, and they have also the newly-signed Matthew Riccitello who can both do the Giro or Tour. However it makes sense for them to have Olav Kooij at the Tour de France which was likely promised and helps both sides whilst either supporting a Top10 Riccitello stint or go for stage wins whilst Gall continues to have his block and support for the Giro where the team doesn't have to back a sprinter.

The British team in in the same situation as Bahrain I would say, lots of quality Grand Tour riders, none that stands out, none that can likely be on a Grand Tour podium. Thymen Arensman is a great rider but inconsistent and I don't know which one he should focus on, because he needs an easy Grand Tour start if he wants to then contest GC, but he will never be a sole leader obviously. The team has Egan Bernal, Carlos Rodríguez and Kévin Vauquelin as other options, with the latter certainly going for the Tour. I can't really see how they will fit the pieces together, specially as they put more focus into their stage hunters such as Ben Turner, Axel Laurance and of course never neglecting Filippo Ganna who will never truly be domestiques and will be always looking towards their own individual ambitions.

Why not? The team sees the departure of Remco Evenepoel but we still have a Mikel Landa who in 2024 had his best ever level. The Basque crashed out of the Giro and it spelled disaster for him. I think in 2026 they should try to replicate the same as this year though honestly, it's a winning formula, with Landa and the rising Paul Magnier spearheading the Giro where both have better chances of succeeding in their goals whilst at the Tour the team can fully focus on supporting Tim Merlier in the sprints unlike this year's co-leadership, whilst chasing stage wins all-round as they used to before the Evenepoel years. A back to basics.