Tirreno-Adriatico 2025 stage 2 preview, profiles, favourites & predictions - Van der Poel, Van Aert, Del Toro and Roglic face on gravel summit finish

Tirreno-Adriatico 2026 is taking place from the 9th to the 15th of March and is, as is the case every year, one of the most important races of the spring. It not only provides sprinters, time trialists and climbers with golden opportunities in one of Italy's top events; but also provides the classics specialists with ideal races to prepare for their big goals. We preview stage 2, which is expected to start and finish at 10:55 and 15:45CET.

The race was created back in 1966 and as the name suggests, it takes rider riders from the Tyrrhenian sea all the way to the Adriatic; crossing central Italy from west to east with a variety of stages that suits all types of riders. Dino Zandegù won the first edition, but it didn't take long for big international names to join the race; even if Paris-Nice was always in the same slot, calendar-wise. The six consecutive GC wins of Roger de Vlaeminck from 1972 to 1977 boosted the race to the highest of levels possible, and lots of legends have cemented their name in the week-long stage-race.

Francesco Moser, Giuseppe Saronni, Joop Zoetemelk and Tony Rominger are riders who won throughout the 20th century; whilst this century a few editions did not have mountain stages which increased the variety of overall winners. Classics specialists such as Paolo Bettini and Óscar Freire won it at their prime; Fabian Cancellara won it back in 2008 and even Greg Van Avermaet took the title in 2016 most recently...

However the quality of the winners over the past 15 years is outerwordly, with many of the world's very best climbers winning the overall classification at the prime of their career. Cadel Evans, Vincenzo Nibali, Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana, Primoz Roglic, Simon Yates, Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard... It's hard to image a better list. In 2025 Juan Ayuso inserted his name amongst the greats, winning the overall classification after winning the queen stage, dethrnoing a Filippo Ganna who showed the very best climbing legs of his career.

As soon as stage 2 of the Italian race begins, there is a small climb. 206 kilometers on the menu starting off in Camaiore with a small hilltop; which then gives away to a very long flat transitional section that will leave the riders at the foot of a stage finale can be very treacherous.

The last 80 kilometers will be a constant up and down, and a very tense couple hours of racing as it features several rolling climbs, a few steep ones, and plenty descents. Tricky roads, in which positioning is crucial and splits can certainly happen.

None of the climbs are overly hard however, and so it's not likely for the peloton to explode. Instead, there should be a full-on leadout to the base of the hilltop finish in San Gimignano. The climb, in total, is 7 kilometers long, and is a finale that is very different from what pro cycling usually has.

The first 1.3 kilometers are at 7.6% and are fully in a sterrato sector. This sector is over 5 kilometers long and will leave the riders with just under 2 kilometers to go; with the off-road sector including uphill and flat areas. After coming off the gravel the riders face a 1.2-kilometer hilltop finish at just over 7% where the puncheurs and climbers will fight for the stage win. However, it is quite likely that we will see important gaps on this finale; whilst the off-road nature can provide unexpected circumstances as well.

This is perhaps a stage that is more important for the overall classification. And yes, most of the riders in the finale will be climbers and GC figures, that is inevitable. Only a few can really take advantage of this terrain, being well adapted to the gravel and the explosive climbs, with Isaac del Toro being the obvious headliner. UAE have the team as well, so the question is whether they can attack whilst still off-road, or wait for the final climb and a sprint. In both scenarios however, Del Toro would be the main favourite amongst these men. Jan Christen serves as a secondary option, it's not known whether he will have to work for the Mexican or be given a free role.

I think Bahrain is very dangerous, with Santiago Buitrago finding a perfectly fit hilltop finish, whilst Antonio Tiberi has shown at the UAE Tour how strong he is riding at the moment as well. Giulio Ciccone and Lennert van Eetvelt on paper are also a perfect match for such an uphill sprint, but it depends a lot on their current form.

We have BORA to take into consideration, Giulio Pellizzari and Jai Hindley are not explosive so it's hard to see them win here, but a late attack could do it; whilst Primoz Roglic put in a stellar time trial and would on paper also be a very good option for the late uphill sprint. Positioning may be the trio's issue. Matteo Jorgenson and Michael Storer are also very valid options to add into the mix; whilst it will be interesting to see how INEOS will do with a Thymen Arensman that often struggles in such a stage but is the leading GC figure, a Filippo Ganna who leads the race and could well survive under optimal conditions tomorrow, and Magnus Sheffield who is a complete wildcard but is carrying good form.

This is perhaps a finale that is too hard for those sprinters who climb well, however you can't fully count out men such as Paul Magnier and Tobias Lund Andresen out, who really can ride incredibly well at their best level - whilst Arnaud de Lie is in the same situation, only less likely to survive as his form is still lacking as of the Opening Weekend.

Wout van Aert's form is not perfect but he could well be up there in the mix for the stage win if he is able to position well into the climbs; whilst Mathieu van der Poel is the main man to look at. The finale suits Del Toro better but that requires a long effort and no breaks in the rhythm. Technically and with positioning, van der Poel should do very well, so if he is let on to the final sprint without having been taken to the limit beforehand, it will be hard to beat him.

The likes of Ben Healy, Roger Adrià, Julian Alaphilippe, Paul Lapeira, Jonas Abrahamsen, Alberto Bettiol, Clément Champoussin and Andreas Kron are all men to consider whilst if it comes down to a sprint you also have to keep under eye riders such as Corbin Strong and Andrea Vendrame.

*** Isaac del Toro, Mathieu van der Poel
** Santiago Buitrago, Giulio Ciccone, Primoz Roglic
* Ben Healy, Wout van Aert, Julian Alaphilippe, Clément Champoussin, Antonio Tiberi, Giulio Pellizzari, Jan Christen, Matteo Jorgenson, Paul Magnier, Corbin Strong, Andrea Vendrame

Pick: Mathieu van der Poel

How: Sprint between a small group.