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PREVIEW | UAE Tour 2024 stage 4 - Can Tim Merlier win again? Massive column of sprinters await likely chaotic finale
CyclingWednesday, 21 February 2024 at 13:45
Preview. After two important GC days, the race returns to the hand of the sprinters. Stage 4 of the UAE Tour should see another mythical battle among the over two dozen strong sprinters present at the race.
A stage in Dubai. The first part is in downtown Dubai, passing around the Burj Khalifa before crossing Deira and skirting the Grand Flag. The race will leave the city heading towards the desert, passing by classic sites of these stages such as Al Qudra Cycletrack and the Jumeirah Islands. It then passes through Palm Jumeirah to finish in Dubai Harbour. The entire route runs on very wide and substantially straight roads, interspersed with very large radius traffic circles and well paved.
STAGE 4, DUBAI POLICE OFFICER'S CLUB-DUBAI HARBOR, 173 KM
The finale will have nothing of technical. By the sea, the riders may be exposed to wind which can make the difference in the sprint. The peloton takes on a 90-degree right turn at the entrance of the final kilometer and then have a clean run-in to the line.
The Weather
Map UAE Tour 2024 stage 4
Some wind from the west. Most of the stage will be in an urban setting so echelons are unlikely, the riders will not be exposed. The finale could be exposed however with some cross-headwind in the final kilometers, and then as well in the final straight of 700 meters in distance. Can this make a difference for the final sprint?
The Favourites
Tim Merlier - Winner on the opening day. That's where Merlier usually performs, but now the rest of the race follows. The truth is this will be a chaotic sprint likely where whoever finds the best opportunity wins. The Belgian is good at that though, and he has the experience moving around finales like this. A pure powerhouse, he will enjoy this sprint.
Sam Welsford - BORA - hansgrohe arguably have the best leadout in the peloton at the moment. Danny van Poppel did crash though and this could be the make or break for the German team. If he feels it in the legs (or in the head) and is unable to get Welsford in prime position, I doubt the Australian can figure himself out amongst the chaos. However if they do work it out as they did at the Tour Down Under, Welsford has in my opinion the speed to beat all the competition that we've got.
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My honest opinion is there is little insight to be given ahead of this sprint. We've got little to no technical features and sprinters will know it's all about timing. The "classic" leadout does not work here, because the stage is pan-flat, with no wind, everyone will arrive fresh at the finale and we have around 15 sprinters capable of fighting for victory with their own support riders. There simply is no space for everyone, so many will find themselves isolated in the middle of the pack.
Fernando Gaviria and Juan Sebastián Molano launched early on the opening day. I argue this is not a bad strategy, someone who does this can be rewarded but needs to time it to perfection and have the luck of not having anyone immediately in the wheel. Riders such as Mark Cavendish, Elia Viviani and Simone Consonni have experience on the track and could benefit from it.
Arvid de Kleijn and Jakub Mareczko had brilliant results on the opening day, outsiders like these can absolutely rule among chaos. Don't discount the likes of Arne Marit, Pascal Ackermann and Stanislaw Aniolkowski who can be i a similar situation. We've got Fabio Jakobsen and Sam Bennett with a point to prove with their new teams.
Then we've got other clear victory contenders such as Dylan Groenewegen, Olav Kooij, Phil Bauhaus and Kaden Groves. None enter the stage above the others, but all have a chance of succeeding here.
Prediction UAE Tour 2024 stage 4:
*** Tim Merlier, Sam Welsford
** Dylan Groenewegen, Arvid de Kleijn, Fabio Jakobsen
* Olav Kooij, Kaden Groves, Juan Sebastián Molano, Phil Bauhaus, Fernando Gaviria, Mark Cavendish, Jakub Mareczko, Simone Consonni
Pick: Sam Welsford
Preview written by Rúben Silva.
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