PREVIEW | UAE Tour 2023 stage 3 - 21-kilometer long Jebel Jais promises climbing showdown

Preview. After Soudal - Quick-Step rode to the win on stage 2, the battle for the overall classification continues as stage 3 of the UAE Tour features it's first climb, the summit finish to Jebel Jais which will narrow down the contenders for victory.

Stage three will see another battle for the overall classification. This one will be a flat day into Jebel Jais, not pan-flat as most of the previous ones as the riders climb around 500 meters of altitude within the opening kilometers, but without any meaningful climb. The riders will head north towards the mountains close to the Strait of Hormuz. There they will find a very twisty mountain road.

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That is of Jebel Jais, a climb that has begun being used quite often in the last editions of the race, earning it's spot as the second summit finish after the UAE Tour cemented Jebel Hafeet as it's main attraction. This climb is a totally different beast however, as the gradients are constant and never overly high. The gradients start off quite gently, but in total the climb has over 21 kilometers in distance, averaging 5.4%.

And amazingly the gradients remain almost completely constant the whole way up the mountain. It reaches up to 7% towards the finale, but it's an ascent where the average speeds stay close to 30 kilometers per hour. Drafting is crucial, and attacking from far highly unlikely to succeed. Although it's a twisty road all of the hairpins are very long and don't actually allow for sudden accelerations to surprise. The final minutes of the ascent can make differences however as it's a decently long effort, and there will be important signs given between the riders who are fighting for the overall classification.

The Weather

The wind won't be strong but in the exposed areas there may be strong gusts from the west. This will however mean mostly crosswinds throughout the climb as it faces several direction changes. The finishing straight will have a headwind however.

Tactics

Jebel Jais is an interesting climb. It's not often that there is a summit finish on a climb as long but not very steep. Usually, this is not a climb for big differences, and I don't expect it to be different this year. The wind will be present, and although it may not directly harm the riders, it definitely won't favour attackers.

Usually it's a climb ridden at pace until the very last kilometers where the strongest have a slight edge. Often a sprint decides the winner, or a sprint between the GC riders occupies most of the Top10. This would be the expected outcome if stage 1 hadn't created such chaos. It may still be the case, but there are riders who must attack, UAE specially as they have have been shedding a lot of time.

With over one minute of disadvantage over Plapp and Evenepoel, UAE have to press on if they want to win the race, and with no doubt attack here. Jay Vine seems to be far from his best level which cuts the team's possibilities, but with both Adam Yates and Brandon McNulty they continue to have numbers to push on - with Vine and Soler possibly riders to bridge across.

Meanwhile, I think both Remco Evenepoel and Luke Plapp benefit from keeping the gaps as they are. Evenepoel would hence not be the man under pressure at Jebel Hafeet, and Plapp because that would mean a bigger buffer - and a lot of exposure and experience. Neither INEOS or Quick-Step have very strong teams to control the climb, but I believe in this ascent they can be the two strongest.

The Favourites

Remco Evenepoel - In this ascent it's tough to make differences, and his last climbing performance in San Juan will put doubts in his head. I think Evenepoel will play the long game, to see how he's feeling and only respond to attacks. A stage win and lead are on the table, but he would likely also benefit from staying just within reach so that Plapp and INEOS would keep the pressure for the final stage.

UAE - Jay Vine strugglewd in the crosswinds, and lost time today in the TTT. This is bad for the team who had a big weapon for the win here. He can play a tactical role nonetheless if he attacks early, but the team will depend on Adam Yates and Brandon McNulty. Yates is likely to perform in the queen stage, here McNulty has better chances if he's in good form, but either ways UAE are under pressure to attack the race if they want to win the GC.

Luke Plapp - Last season Plapp put on a great performance on this climb, but as a domestique. His powerhouse stance is perfect for this type of climb, it would be in no way a shock to see him take the win, or at least be able to respond to Evenepoel and Yates. He can definitely keep the race lead.

Pello Bilbao - Bilbao will likely not make any serious move. He can sprint and a group finish would benefit him. In Jebel Hafeet attacks can be made, but if he stays within such short range of the lead it won't be a bad scenario for him.

This won't be a perfect day for the climbers. Although it is a long climb, it is by far a steep one, and many riders with a good engine or great form can hang on to the main groups. The GC will mostly be decided at Jebel Hafeet, but here there will naturally be a thinning down of the contenders, and the form of the GC riders will be well understood.

There will be pure climbers such as Geoffrey Bouchard, Emanuel Buchmann, Michael Storer, Sepp Kuss and Einer Rubio who will likely prefer the final day, and here will be less comfortable. Then there will be other climbers who will have better chances in these kind of gradients.

Alexey Lutsenko, Jakob Fuglsang, Thomas Gloag and Antonio Tiberi are present. The likes of Simon Carr may also surprise as EF rode strongly today. Intermarché duo of Louis Meintjes and Rein Taaramäe are also to keep an eye on as the team leads the UCI rankings in spectacular form and are highly motivated.

Prediction UAE Tour 2023 stage 3:

*** Remco Evenepoel, Adam Yates
** Luke Plapp, Pello Bilbao
* Brandon McNulty, Jay Vine, Sepp Kuss, Einer Rubio, Alexey Lutsenko, Jakob Fuglsang, Thomas Gloag

Pick: Pello Bilbao