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PREVIEW | Tour of Flanders 2023 - Mathieu van der Poel, Wout van Aert and Tadej Pogacar the big favourites
CyclingSunday, 02 April 2023 at 11:03
Preview. The Tour of Flanders - or Ronde van Vlaanderen - is the second monument of the season and the queen of the Flanders classics. Taking place in the Flemish region of Belgium, the race incorporates many of the most famous cobbled sectors and climbs in pro cycling.
272 kilometers on the menu this year. The distance will make for a brutal race, the Tour des Flandres has always been a race for the riders who are capable of performing on a bike at top level for a large number of hours and this year that capacity will be put to the limit. The start at Antwerpen will then see just a bit over 130 kilometers that are mostly set to be calm, approximately half of the race. However in the second half everything changes, as the Oude Kwaremont will open things up.
Estimated start and finish times for Tour of Flanders: 11:00 - 17:30CET.
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Brugge - Oudenaarde, 273.4 kilometers
From 137 to 88 kilometers to go there will be a long succession of bergs and cobbled sectors that will thin down the peloton. Big attacks will no happen here, as the main favourites need to save their bullets wisely, however set-up attacks, split attempts and a lot of fatigue buildup may happen here.
The crucial section of the race starts with the second passage over the Oude Kwaremont. Kwaremont, Paterberg and the Koppenberg come in quick succession and this trio of ascents will not only destroy the peloton, it will also provide opportunities to launch potentially decisive attacks. They come with 54.5, 51 and 44.5 kilometers to go. Not many riders will survive the peloton afterwards, and with a thinned down group decisive attacks can also come after as the chasing power will not be so meaningful.
Koppenberg: 600 meters; 13.3%; 44.5Km to go
Steenbeekdries (39Km to go), Taaienberg (36.5Km to go) and Oude Kruisberg (28Km to go) follow afterwards and provide further launching pads for dangerous attacks. After a small descent the race will enter it’s final sectors.
For the third and last time, the Oude Kwaremont. A grueling berg with inconsistent gradients, it summits with 16.5Km to go.
Oude Kwaremont: 2.5Km; 3.7%; 16.5Km
And after a short section, the final berg of the race is always one that may see the differences, the Paterberg. Short but sharp, essentially a one-minute all-out effort after around 6:30h of hard racing where slipstreaming is not a thing. A climb most will know like the back of their hand, it will summit with 13 kilometers to go.
Paterberg: 400 meters; 13.5%; 13Km to go
As every year, the run-up to Oudenaarde then is quite excruciating. Pan-flat after the small descent from the Paterberg, it is a place where attacks can still happen, but whatever happens depends on what will happen over the ascents.
Finale Tour des Flandres 2023
The Weather
Map Tour des Flandres 2023
Previous days to the race should see rain. The cobbles in some areas will very likely be wet, but overall it's a dry race. It will be a cloudy but very windy race in Flanders. There will be strong wind from the northeast. In the bergs it isn't expected to be meaningful as many are covered and in others the gradients make the wind irrelevant. The Oude Kwaremont may see some cross-headwinds however.
The crucial phase is following all the climbs, the flat finale into Oudenaarde. There it will be a cross-headwind. It doesn't favour solo attacks, and a group sprint - whether it be very small or with several riders - is likely.
The 'big three'
Wout van Aert - Jumbo-Visma do not have Dylan van Baarle at the start here, but they remain the strongest team. Van Aert has won the E3 Saxo Classic, helped the team dominate Gent-Wevelgem and seems to be hitting peak form at the right time as planned. He's also got the trust of Christophe Laporte who has been gifted the win at Wevelgem and Tiesj Benoot who won Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne.
The latter two, alongside Nathan van Hooydonck can play a crucial role in the race. As in E3 they may not be able to anticipate the main attacks on the race, but having the numbers and power can very well give them some tactical advantage and shift pressure to their rivals.
Tadej Pogacar - The rider everyone expects to attack. On one side that's good, it hints that he may be the strongest in the climbs, but on the opposite side he will have no freedom given, and may indeed be forced to attack and having the pressure to make the race. Fourth last year, but he proved he could win. His spring has been impressive and his third spot at E3 alongside his attacks showed that he's in the right mindset and form to dream of a win. Tim Wellens comes in as an important support rider.
Mathieu van der Poel - Somehow a balance between the two above. Defending champion, he will be motivated to defend his title, but has a big challenge. It will be difficult to dislodge Pogacar in the climbs, and hard to outsprint van Aert. However he can be an ally to both if one struggles. He can also try to win solo as in Sanremo. Alpecin have an in-form Soren Kragh Andersen who gives the team more room for maneuver.
Who else should try to go on the attack?
Groupama - FDJ - Valentin Madouas has ridden to third place last year in Flanders and proved he's a perfect fit. The Frenchman hasn't won this season but he rode to second at Strade Bianche and recently eighth at the E3 Saxo Classic. A pure puncheur, he is one of the most likely to be able to follow the best on the climbs. As for Stefan Küng his challenge are the climbs, but in endurance and raw power he will be able to make up for it slightly, and is also in good form having finished sixth in E3.
Matej Mohoric - A very good rider tactically. The steep climbs aren't his ground but he's on good form and is the type of rider who tends to anticipate big attacks. If he manages to do it once again he can find himself in the position to win the race.
Tom Pidcock - Pidcock is a big wildcard. As shown at Strade Bianche at his best level he's incredibly good, and the multiple and steep climbs of Flanders are perfect for him. However he's very inconsistent and having only recently came back from injuries sustained at Tirreno-Adriatico, it won't be an easy task. Ben Turner, Jhonatan Narváez and Magnus Sheffield will be outsiders and should have green card.
Soudal - Quick-Step - The pressure is on. But will they finally be able to turn their spring around? In the one-day races they've been struggling, Julian Alaphilippe may be their best option but he's so far not performed in the cobbles to great effect. Kasper Asgreen, Yves Lampaert and Davide Ballerini are all valuable outsiders who cannot be ignored, but at the moment it doesn't seem like they can aim for higher than a Top10. Tim Merlier also comes an interesting rider, but realistically speaking even with the country's colours on his chest he shouldn't contest for a high result.
Movistar Team - Perhaps the most motivated team at the start. No pressure to take a win, but the Spanish squad has been thriving in the cobbles. Oier Lazkano finished second at Dwars door Vlaanderen and will be an interesting rider to follow. The lead should fall on Ivan García Cortina and Matteo Jorgenson who've finished fourth and fifth respectively at the E3 Saxo Classic and can fight to pull one out once again.
EF Education-EasyPost - The team's hopes should rely on Neilson Powless and Mikkel Honoré who rode a great race at Dwars door Vlaanderen. Both are riders to survive the climbs, and the former finished on the podium this week, they will be an interesting duo of outsiders.
Israel - Premier Tech - An interesting team. Sep Vanmarcke finished third at Gent-Wevelgem and will be motivated. Krists Neilands rode a strong E3 and finished 12th there. The team also has possibilities in Dylan Teuns and Hugo Houle but neither have shown the competitiveness in the last few weeks.
In a third line of contenders you will have other team leades such as Florian Vermeersch, Nils Politt, Anthony Turgis, Alexey Lutsenko and perhaps Rasmus Tiller. AG2R also have an interesting trio but one who hasn't had their form this spring - with Greg van Avermaet, Oliver Naesen and Benoît Cosnefroy.
What if a fast man has their way?
To start it off it's important to note above are very fast riders. All the three main favourites inclusively pack a very strong sprint. But they do have competition, in the slim chance that it comes down together for a small group sprint with a few dangerous riders.
Mads Pedersen - The main figure. A rider of tremendous quality, Pedersen has ridden a very strong spring but one where it hasn't translated to the results. He's put too much effort to chase down winning moves, burning his chances of a place in the Top10. A former runner-up and endurance beast, the Dane races for a top result only. Jasper Stuyven and Edward Theuns can also be interesting wildcards.
Biniam Girmay - It hasn't been the spring for Girmay, but he will be motivated to race on his birthday. Having shown tremendous talent on the cobbles this year, his debut at the Ronde can see him surprise, as he leads a strong and experienced Intermarché-Circus-Wanty.
Michael Matthews - Matthews has shown great form early in the year. At Paris-Nice things seemed to be going in the right direction. Covid-19 right before Milano-Sanremo was a complicated pill to swallow however. Having finished in the peloton at Dwars door Vlaanderen has signalled however that he has the legs to be competitive here.
A few more fast men have made their way through the startlist. Some surprisingly such as Caleb Ewan who will have quite the challenge. Alexander Kristoff showed great legs on the attack at Dwars door Vlaanderen and will be an interesting outsider as a former winner of the race. John Degenkolb, Danny van Poppel and Arkéa Samsic Hugo Hofstetter and Jenthe Biermans will also be among those looking for a more compact finale.
Prediction Tour des Flandres 2023:
*** Wout van Aert, Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar
** Christophe Laporte, Valentin Madouas, Matej Mohoric
* Mads Pedersen, Stefan Küng, Julian Alaphilippe, Tom Pidcock, Soren Kragh Andersen, Tiesj Benoot, Matteo Jorgenson, Neilson Powless
Pick: Wout van Aert
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