PREVIEW | Tour Down Under 2024 stage 5 - Old Willunga Hill showdown likely to decide GC

Preview. Stage 5 of the Tour Down Under is the queen stage. The riders return to the Old Willunga Hill, an explosive summit finish where the gaps can very well decide the race.

Stage 5 sees the return of the Willunga Hill. It's the traditional Tour Down Under finale, and a stage that can be decisive. This is the comeback of the race's (and region's) most famous climb. It is a day that is very short and should be very calm all throughout, with the exception of the end. Like Milano-Sanremo, it is a slow buildup towards what should be a very explosive finale.

The riders will climb twice the 3-kilometer ascent at 7.5%, the first of which summits with 22.5 kilometers to go. However here there's rarely action, just positioning towards the base but then the race calms down. It's a non-technical and consistent climb so the riders will likely remain in a calm zone. Then in the run-up to the final climb the fight is serious.

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Then, it's a 10-minute effort approximately - including the run-up to the ascent. High speed and big chainring, it's a climb where attacks have to be very powerful to make the difference as it will be raced at high speed. Still, the few seconds, and bonifications at the finish line, often prove vital for the decision of the ochre jersey.

The Weather

The heat intensifies once again, it will go close to 30 degrees once again. The wind will also be blowing reasonably hard from the west. In the McLaren Vale the roads are exposed, we will have a very long exposed crosswind section before entering the final climb, which will make for a more difficult finale and where we can see bigger gaps perhaps.

The Favourites

Isaac del Toro - The Mexican enters the queen stage in the lead. A great climber, and apparently with strong form. This will be a completely new test for him however. It is hard to forget that his pro debut is literally the ongoing race, it would be a crazy achievement to win right away the GC. But it is completely viable, Del Toro does not have to attack, but to follow wheels only. Finn Fisher-Black could also be quite strong here, perhaps to ride in support of the 20-year old, but if there is a big difference he may try to go for the win himself.

Jhonatan Narváez - The Ecuadorian is in flying form, and with no doubt a headliner of the past week. His sprint is brilliant, but the amount of work he's done for teammates in the sprints is not ideal in the long-run. The explosivity is there with no doubt, and I think he'll wait for a sprint or a possible move in the final meters. With bonus seconds he's gotten beforehand, he has the chance to wait a bit more. The issue may be that the effort can be too long for him, but I'm sure he will either way play a role in the finale.

Simon Yates - Jayco has been having a tough week. Luke Plapp is out of the race and he looked superb on stage 2. Hence now the responsibility lies on Simon Yates, who has an effort well adapted to his skills. His form is a question however. The team does have Chris Harper as another option for this climb, however after finishing second last year he wants to improve on that in 2024.

We've got other climbers who would hope for a long effort and climb that is pushed to the limit. Jack Haig, George Bennett, Ben Zwiehoff, Ruben Guerreiro, Michael Storer and Damien Howson will be in the mix. Milan Vader, after winning the Tour of Guangxi last year, is also expected to be up there as he was the first rider over the top of the climb on stage 2 after Plapp and Narváez.

Julian Alaphilippe is a name often mentioned. In his best day he'd definitely be a man to beat on this one, but not currently... His form does not look promising. There are many puncheurs like him however who can do something big. Compatriots Louis Barré and Bastien Tronchon could be interesting outsiders. Laurence Pithie has also been having a very strong race and will be an interesting figure to keep up with.

We could certainly keep our eyes on Stephen Williams, Derek Gee and Corbin Strong who lead a strong Israel - Premier Tech block. Williams specially can do quite well on a climb like this, whilst Strong sits third in the GC and could take on the ochre jersey if he survives the pace well. Oscar Onley, Archie Ryan, Roger Adria and Gonzalo Serrano are further outsiders on the day,

Prediction Tour Down Under 2024 stage 5:

*** Jhonatan Narváez, Milan Vader
** Simon Yates, Isaac del Toro, Stephen Williams
* Finn Fisher-Black, Chris Harper, Jack Haig, Ruben Guerreiro, Michael Storer, Laurence Pithie, Corbin Strong, Oscar Onley

Pick: Jhonatan Narváez

Preview written by Rúben Silva.