PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 4 - Another explosive stage should see action between Pogacar, Vingegaard and Van der Poel

Stage 4 of the Tour de France will be another tough stage with a lot of short and explosive climbs close to the finish. In Rouen we could have a similar finale to that of yesterday where Mathieu van der Poel took the stage win. He will once again be amongst the favourites, but we must always look towards Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and the other GC favourites once again.

The second hilltop finish of the race will take place in Rouen and it's a thrilling explosive finale. The final 21 kilometers have four ascents, the final big one with a mere 5 kilometers to go which is 900 meters long at over 10%. A completely flat first two thirds of the day, which will lead to a very fast finale certainly where sprinters, classics riders and GC riders will all be giving their best.

The final 30 kilometers are tricky... 1.3Km at 9.2% (28Km to go), 900 meters at 7% (20Km to go), 1.8Km at 4.8% (12Km to go) and 800 meters at 9.1% (5Km to go) can be decisive to the outcome of the stage. In reality, it will all be a slow-building leadout until the final one where the ramps go up to 17%. It's so difficult and close to the finish with a quick downhill inbetween that any attack can succeed.

There is a plateau after the summit which means that attacks can also come after the summit. GC riders will need to be as strong as possible and will swarm the front, but a few classics riders can attack both during and after the ascent. If anyone has a gap into the descent it'll be very hard to bring him back.

If it does happen, most likely it will be because of a slight uphill ramp that'll come before the finish. The final meters are flat, but it's not a pure sprint.

Once again it is quite possible that there will be some rain at the start of the race and later on it will dry up. But the wind will blow, and this will be a very very tense day! The wind will blow all day long with quite a lot of intensity from the northwest, which means the first 100 kilometers will almost exclusively have crosswinds on quite open roads. If there are teams with interesting, things could heat up very early on. In the final kilometers this won't be the case, but the decisive moments of the race will already be inside the city of Rouen and so the riders will not really be exposed to the wind.

Mathieu van der Poel - The man to beat? Ordinarily I would say there is no man to beat on a finale like this, but we have got peak van der Poel here. He did exactly what he had to do on stage 2, perfectly, and delivered a sensational win. What he has to do is replicate his formula, and could be aided again by other teams who are looking for their own results or bonifications in a sprint. Alpecin won't have the men to close down attacks in the finale but the Dutchman's level is incredible. The climb will be steeper and perhaps harder for him if someone like Pogacar attacks, but the final technical and flat kilometers are right down his ally. If he can take it to a sprint once again he will be a tough nut to crack.

Tadej Pogacar - Thus far the World Champion has not yet attacked? Does he not want to or did he not have the legs to? I'd say he does not want, but in this stage it is an interesting question that can be raised. He definitely doesn't need to attack (neither to try and gain time or try and win the stage) but if he does, chances are he can potentially go solo to the finish or have a small group without van der Poel and then sprint to victory. UAE will try to save the day but I'd say with men like Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez they don't have to settle with just seeing what others will do.

The GC men will be present, and I wouldn't put it past Jonas Vingegaard to attack (likely after the climb, over the top). Likewise, with Matteo Jorgenson present, Visma does in my opinion have to try and attack that finale, but not whilst the peloton is climbing because Pogacar will just match. In a sprint Vingegaard could potentially try and get more bonus seconds... Remco Evenepoel will be dangerous for a late attack and he is angry... Add in to the mix Santiago Buitrago, Primoz Roglic, Florian Lipowitz, Mattias Skjelmose, Kévin Vauquelin and Oscar Onley (although realistically, all of them can only win this with a late attack).

The 'puncheurs' will have a tough time here. Mathieu van der Poel obviously is the exception to the rule, and he is the main favourite to win today. But regardless of their quality, add in any non-climber and he will have trouble distancing the Dutchman, besides having to deal with the climbers. Romain Grégoire and Julian Alaphilippe showed an extraordinary level on stage 2 however and both sprint very well so have to be taken into consideration; Simone Velasco and Aurélien Paret-Peintre finished in the Top10 in Boulogne-sur-Mer and so are outsiders for a sprint once again here; Whilst the likes of Neilson Powless, Marc Hirschi and Quentin Pacher are men I would cast as wildcards for a potential lucky late attack.

We can be certain that there will be an extremely intense battle to the base of the final climb. The prediction for stage 2 was on spot and so the same should happen here, becoming so difficult that the sprinters simply cannot hold the pace. Now it is possible to add the detail that a few teams (and UAE is the main 'culprit') can for sure also pace hard up the climbs to narrow down the field and reduce the dangerous of crashes or being badly positioned into that final climb.

All this means a sprint finish between actualy sprinters (even if there is just one of two who survive) is very unlikely. The technical aspect of the finale after the climb also makes it hard, but everything is possible. When you've got riders of the calliber of Axel Laurance and Bryan Coquard who can climb like a menace on their best day and have shown good legs thus far recently. Add in a few men who can certainly be up there likewise if they have a good day: Wout van Aert, Vincenzo Albanese and Magnus Cort Nielsen.

*** Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar
** Romain Grégoire, Julian Alaphilippe, Jonas Vingegaard
* Matteo Jorgenson, Remco Evenepoel, Primoz Roglic, Florian Lipowitz, Kévin Vauquelin, Oscar Onley, Neilson Powless, Aurélien Paret-Peintre, Simone Velasco

Pick: Mathieu van der Poel

How: He can definitely win with a late attack as the technical finale suits him well, but I think he is strong enough to cover attacks in the end and win again in a small group sprint.