PREVIEW | Tour de France 2025 stage 20 - Breakaway bingo on explosive hilly day

Stage 20 is a hilly day which can still deliver a lot of fireworks. The GC battle may be virtually over in this Tour de France but we may still see some interesting attacks in the day's climbs, whilst all the classics specialists will be looking to win a big stage.

Stage 20 will be a hilly day and into Pontarler we should have a breakaway succeed. This one could include many classics riders, sprinters and even climbers or GC figures trying to make a final impact in the overall classification.

It's unusual for stage 20 to have this format but it's an interesting novelty from the Tour. The 12-kilometer ascent early in the day can absolutely see some hard-hitting uphill action, and all around it are different sorts of climbs where the men-in-form can really take advantage of to go up the road and seek a stage win.

With 63 kilometers to go the riders face the Côte de Thesy, which is hard enough even with the big GC contenders to launch a last-bid attack to try and change the outcome of the overall classification. In such a stage, there could be a massive tactical aspect in case the GC does explode, as on paper it's a certain breakaway day where many different kinds of riders can be in the head of the race.

Even if not, it will still be a very interesting stage with lots of rolling climbs all throughout the final hour of racing. Terrain for rouleurs and classics riders... The last one comes with 10 kilometers to go.

We've got lots of rain and we've got a strong northern wind. This does mean most of the stage will have a headwind to it, until it changes at the bottom of the final categorized climb. From there on it's a cross-tailwind all the way to the finish. A breakaway remains the most likely scenario to succeed.

Breakaway - There's very little doubt that the win will come from the front, even if the wind will make it terribly hard for those who want to put themselves in the wind. The start is uphill and quite hard so not everyone will be able to just get themselves in there. You need to be a decent climber at the very least but being a strong rouleur will matter a lot and having a good sprint could potentially come in useful and long-range attacks may not be able to succeed.

Whilst it's not easy to make the difference in the latter climbs of the day, there are a few men who can ride for a result here but will depend a lot on the uphill sections to make the difference. This doesn't mean that's exclusively the case, but they may also be amongst the most aggressive on the difficult climb to really split things up and improve their chances. GC outsiders like Ben Healy, Primoz Roglic, Ben O'Connor and Jordan Jegat can absolutely take the risk in front and give it a shot - at least for the stage win.

Thymen Arensman, Frank van den Broek, Andreas Leknessund, Gregor Muhlberger, Luke Plapp, Julian Alaphilippe and certainly men who have good reasons to attack and also most likely good legs; whilst we could also see the UAE men have full freedom and chase another win. Tim Wellens and Jhonatan Narváez would be absolute favourites for the win if they found themselves in front.

You also have some riders who can on paper depend on a sprint. This does NOT mean they will race conservatively, in fact you can't afford to do that on such a stage, but if a small group is going into the final kilometers they can be the men to beat there. Of course Wout van Aert is included in this, but we can't expect him to depend in a sprint specially taking into consideration a few races this year. But we can include here Kaden Groves and Arnaud de Lie, strong sprinters who can also do these kinds of stages very well; and puncheurs such as Axel Laurance, Alex Aranburu and Simone Velasco.

And inbetween you have about a dozen riders who are brilliant classics specialists and rouleurs. And this is the Tour de France, these are some of the very best in the world... Take those who can make the difference uphill such as Quinn Simmons, Romain Grégoire or Bruno Armirail who have all impressed so much in this Tour; Rouleurs like Victor Campenaerts and Nils Politt who are on the form of their life; And many other quality riders such as Kasper Asgreen, Matej Mohoric, Fred Wright, Valentin Madouas, Mauro Schmid, Iván Romeo and Raul García Pierna. 

GC Fight - Why not. There still is a rough climb on the menu and there's actually no reason for Jonas Vingegaard not to attack, he isn't going to win the GC if he sits in the peloton but there's a 0.1% chance Tadej Pogacar is on a bad day - but judging after today, the hope is probably fully gone. As I mentioned above, it is likely that a few Top10 riders will be trying to battle their way into the breakaway, potentially mark each other.

*** Quinn SImmons, Romain Grégoire, Victor Campenaerts
** Frank van den Broek, Tim Wellens, Bruno Armirail
* Tadej Pogacar, Ben Healy, Ben O'Connor, Julian Alaphilippe, Luke Plapp, Jhonatan Narváez, Wout van Aert, Matej Mohoric, Iván Romeo, Axel Laurance, Arnaud de Lie

Pick: Quinn Simmons

How: The American is on extraordinary form and I sense for weeks now that a win is coming. It hasn't thus far but this is the day out of all that suits him best. So he may finally achieve the win.