PREVIEW | Tour de France 2024 stage 21 - Final time-trial showdown between Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel

The 2024 Tour de France will come to an end this Sunday with a time-trial from Monaco to Nice. A difficult one, but at this point of the race only the stage victory is to be decided among the top riders. The three riders who will fill the podium (Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel) - are coincidentally the riders who are expected to fight for the victory here.

The final stage of the race. This 35-kilometer route will include the ascents to La Turbie (8.1Km; 6.5%) and a short hilltop to the Col d'Èze (1.6Km; 8.1%) before descending down to Nice where the race will finish this year. A different finale, from Monaco to Nice we are set for a big spectacle.

The start in Monaco will be very stylish but there will only be a few minutes of 'enjoyment' before climbing La Turbie. The ascent will be 8.2 kilometers long at 5.7% and there will be an intermediate point at the top which will provide insight to climbing legs.

After a little bit of rolling roads there is the small Col d'Èze which is 1.6 kilometers at 8.88, those looking to fight for time will go all-out to the limit here as a long descent follows. In time-trial bikes this descent can be dangerous however, it is technical and also quite steep at points. Only the final 5 kilometers then are flat, going back and fourth in the beachside of Nice before reaching the finale of the Tour.

Some southeastern wind will assist the riders on the early climb of the day perhaps, although it can't be said that it will hold any meaningful meaning. Most of the day will be in a slight crosswind, but with plenty turning and descending the effect is rather cut.

Tadej Pogacar - Initially I was going to go for Evenepoel for the stage win. Pogacar is very strong but nevertheless he will not want to take lots of risks kilometers away from a Tour triumph, whilst the Belgian may for the stage win. But today I've begun believing that he truly is thinking of the stage win record in the race and he will not want to waste opportunities. This day is an opportunity, starting right by the door of his house, an explosive set of climbs just as he likes... And just immense form and confidence that no-one is able to match. I bet on him to take his sixth victory, just as he did at the Giro d'Italia.

Remco Evenepoel - I wouldn't say Evenepoel will be any weaker but if Pogacar wants to go all-in for the stage it will be tough. This is not a time-trial where you can really do much of your specialty against the clock, you climb a lot and descent a lot. Downhill he hasn't been the best, but I do believe he can make time on the rest of the field both uphill and in the transition zones.

Jonas Vingegaard - He is still at his best level but I don't believe in a victory or a repeat of last year's Tour time-trialing. He will be strong, likely to finish second or third on the day, but uphill he won't be faster than Pogacar and downhill I say the same. Still, a good race and he will finish his job.

GC Fight - João Almeida will certainly keep his fourth place, with Mikel Landa also protecting a very strong fifth. Sixth place is separated by a mere second, but I believe Adam Yates will be able to defend himself again a Carlos Rodríguez that looks to be feeling the fatigue of a tough race. Matteo Jorgenson climbed to eighth and should protect it easily with his current form; Derek Gee stays ninth; and I believe Giulio Ciccone should be able to defend himself against Santiago Buitrago as well.

An outsider can win on the day, but this will be rather hard. Take Kévin Vauquelin at the early time-trial however it wasn't ideal to his skills and he was actually close to the first; with a good day on the bike he could certainly be within the first again here. But it will be difficult for many to come within the strongest climbers on the day. Wilco Kelderman and Wout van Aert can certainly ride around the Top10 on a good day; Geraint Thomas and Laurens de Plus for INEOS can do the same as can: Carlos Verona, Ilan van Wilder, Bob Jungels, Richard Carapaz and Tobias Johannessen. 

*** Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel
** Jonas Vingegaard, João Almeida, Derek Gee, Matteo Jorgenson
* Adam Yates, Santiago Buitrago, Giulio Ciccone, Kévin Vauquelin, Wilco Kelderman, Laurens de Plus, Richard Carapaz, Simon Yates

Pick: Tadej Pogacar