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PREVIEW | Tour de France 2023 stage 17 - 5400 meters of climbing and 20% climb up Col de la Loze the queen stage for Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar
CyclingWednesday, 19 July 2023 at 11:13
Preview. Stage 17 of the Tour de France is by many called the queen stage, a brutal stage in the Alps with the climax in the climb to Col de la Loze. Jonas Vingegaard is in yellow and has the task to defend the yellow jersey from Tadej Pogacar as the gap has grown in the time-trial.
Stage 17 of the Tour de France is perhaps the queen stage of the race. A brutal day in the mountains featuring 5400 meters of climbing. The start is rather flat, but features in it's early parts the Col des Saisies (13.3Km; 5.3%). It will take a few kilometers for the riders to reach it, but the breakaway certainly will go up the road here.
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Estimated start and finish times for Tour de France stage 17: 12:20-17:05CET
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Stage 17: Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc - Courchevel, 166.4 kilometers
Col de Saisies: 13.5Km; 5.1%; 138Km to go
This could very well be considered the queen stage, it's the stage that features the most climbing meters and what is considered the toughest (and highest) ascent of the race. The Cormet de Roseland (19.9Km; 6.1%) follows, a long climb with it's summit at almost 2000 meters of altitude and summiting with 99.5 kilometers to go.
Afterwards the riders will ascent the Côte de Longefroy (6.6Km; 7.5), but all of that will be a warm-up to the final ascent. The descent is extremely technical, although it may be considered the "easiest" climb of the day, the race to the summit will be real as all riders will want to be in the front for it.
Cormet de Roseland: 19.8Km; 6.1%; 99.5Km to go
After a valley run the riders will ascend to the outside of Courchevel, climbing around 14 kilometers at 6% before a small flat section. The final 10.2 kilometers have 8.5% average gradient and will take the riders all the way up to the Col de la Loze at 2304 meters of altitude, and gradients of up to 20% near the finish. It is similar but not the exact same climb that was ridden in 2020, the difference being it's earlier. It will host the Souvenir Henri Desgrange at the summit, an horrific ascent.
The summit will be placd 6.5 kilometers away from the finish, with a short descent which will be fast leading to the Courchevel altiport, still with a hilltop finish that will see ramps of up to 18% on the road. Big gaps won't be made there, but certainly some seconds could be gained or lost, as well as making for a very scenic finale.
Col de la Loze: 28Km; 6%; 6Km to go
The Weather
Map Tour de France 2023 stage 17
The heat will not be felt, the temperatures will drop in this area of the Alps and the weather becomes quite unstable. Rain is expected, possible to have rain showers as the wind will be strong. The wind will come from the west. If you want to attack this stage it is a good sign, the weather could bring in a factor of unpredictability.
The Favourites
Jonas Vingegaard - 1:48 minutes on Pogacar. Vingegaard lost time throughout some stages but minor losses, on Marie Blanque and the time-trial he won huge. The victory today in the time-trial was outstanding and a testament to his form. This is bad news for UAE, because this stage and Loze are perhaps the best suited to the Dane. My honest opinion, he just has to do a normal ride and he can have the Tour won at the end of this day. Put Jumbo in the wheel, send 1 or 2 riders in the breakaway, they may want to pace throughout the day to drain Pogacar but the final climb in itself could be hard enough for that.
Tadej Pogacar - It's a tricky position now that the team find themselves. The fight is between the two, even sitting third Adam Yates is not a card to play to put pressure on him, even if he joined the day's breakaway. I've heard suggestions Pogi may not wait for the final climb to attack but let's be honest that's just not doable. Loze is a climb that will take over an hour, up to immense altitude and brutal finale. He must arrive as fresh as possible. It's unlikely, but he has the chance to take a bit of time on Vingegaard. Ideally for him cut the gap to something which he could realistically then take on stage 20.
Top 5 Fight - UAE will not try something absurd with Adam Yates to try and put pressure on Jumbo, gaps are too big and he has the podium fight. 5 seconds ahead of Carlos Rodríguez, this has become the new tight battle. I wouldn't have any ahead of the other, the climb is hard enough that working at the front won't make a meaningful difference. It will be an interesting one. Sepp Kuss is not too far from Jai Hindley to dream of fifth place, Pello Bilbao and Simon Yates also within range if someone has a bad day. Everyone behind should have freedom, the likes of David Gaudu, Felix Gall and Guillaume Martin have very good form and should likely attack to try and chase a stage win - otherwise they won't get it. Tom Pidcock may now be too far from Top10 but is also likely to attack.
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Breakaway - This will be a hard day for escapees. I believe Jumbo-Visma will have interest to set a strong pace throughout the day, and in the final climb it will simply be incredibly brutal, and even if the best are out front, they will need a meaningful buffer over Vingegaard and Pogacar. The list cannot be big, because the climbing legs that one needs to have to win here has to be world class.
Giulio Ciccone will have this goal of getting the KOM jersey and will be mandatory to be in the breakaway. On some days he's looked brilliant, but at Le Betex where he could've won big points he struggled in the final climb. Jonathan Castroviejo, Thibaut Pinot, Wout Poels, Emanuel Buchmann, Michael Woods, Chris Harper and Tobias Johannessen will be a few of the riders looking to strike a blow in this key stage.
Prediction Tour de France 2023 stage 17:
*** Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar
** Adam Yates, Carlos Rodríguez
* Jai Hindley, Giulio Ciccone, Wout Poels, Michael Woods, Felix Gall, Guillaume Martin, David Gaudu
Pick: Jonas Vingegaard
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