PREVIEW | Strade Bianche 2025 - Can anyone beat Tadej Pogacar in his race of specialty?

On the 8th of March the World Tour peloton will tackle one of the biggest and most spectacular races of the year. Strade Bianche will be on the road, with it's iconic gravel roads, steep climbs and beautiful sceneries. We preview the race ahead.

After having changed it in 2024, the 2025 course remains just as hard and with the same large distance. 213 kilometers on the menu, with 3700 meters of climbing - although the race does not have a single mountain to tackle.

There are 81Km of gravel divided into 16 sectors, as short as 600 meters long and as big as 11.9Km in length, and they aren’t concentrated in any specific area of the route but rather spread evenly throughout the entire race, it’s one of attrition, where tactics, positioning and let’s admit, a tad bit of luck all have to be ticked off the box. The route starts off in some rolling roads and just a bit before the halfway point of the race the first major challenge comes.

Lucignano d’Asso sector, the 5th and biggest of the race and finishes with 127Km to go, it’s a fairly hard sector that has a lot of room for crashes, punctures, splits, etc… Every sector (and well every Kilometer) is a chance for something to go wrong, and like in the cobbles it’s a matter of having the least possible energy spent unnecessary, this is where the real race starts!

Monte Sante Marie is perhaps the first crucial sector of the race, ending with just over 72 kilometers to go and featuring a whole kilometer at 10%. However the sheer size and diversity of gradients found throughout the sector makes it a brutal one that will inevitably explode the race.

Colle Pinzuto finishes with 53Km to go and is one of the last pieces of brutal roads where gaps can be made out of power and not opportunity, it’s one that doesn’t include descents so it’s quite a brute.

Le Tolfe follows, it summits with 42Km to go and is a U shaped sector, you enter it full speed in a descent and then have a nasty ramp in the gravel, the last white road of the race and for sure at this race we can have the rider, or the group of riders who will fight for the win.

Traditionally, the riders would then have a few hills and ride into Siena just a few kilometers away. In 2024 an extra loop was added and this year it stays. This will feature the 1.3-kilometer long Strada del Castagno which finishes with 39 kilometers to go, and then the 3.3-kilometer long downhill San Giovanni a Cerreto which ends with 22.5 kilometers to go.

In antecedes Colle Pinzuto and Le Tolfe which will be climbed for a second time. These will end with 17 and 12 kilometers to go, by this point the race may already be decided, but if not certainly these pinch points can be the end of many riders' ambitions.

From there on there are 12 kilometers into the finish line. They will by no means be easy as the road keeps tilting either up or down, however it does give some opportunity to reconsolidate the race and possible form alliances ahead of the final ascent.

If a group, it will all be decided in the narrow streets of Siena, Via Santa Caterina is one of the most iconic places in cycling and you’re sure to get some awesome images. The decisive ramp will go up to 16% in it's steepest section (700 meters, 9% average gradient) and the final corners into the heart of Siena will be a final opportunity to overtake other riders.

Sunny weather, no clouds, nice spring temperatures and barely any wind. There will be no obstacles on this side for the riders.

Tadej Pogacar - There is no denying that he is the main favourite and man to beat. Last year he won this race and it wasn't even competitive. The best climber, likely the best when it comes to endurance and a great bike handler. It's hard to see anyone follow him when he launched his main attacks, and UAE have brilliant support (or co-leaders) in Tim Wellens and Isaac Del Toro who can themselves chase good results. It's barrier that, even in an often chaotic race, may be too big for everyone else.

Tom Pidcock - Tom Pidcock is likely the biggest rival to Pogacar, and this is a vote of confidence that I wouldn't give before. In form, with several wins, confidence and motivation back in his legs, the Briton faces what is perhaps the race that suits him best out of all the road calendar. Q36.5 do not have a team to match UAE, but UAE is unlikely to try and put Q36.5 under pressure in all honesty and in this race it's the leaders' legs that matter the most. The Briton is the only rider I realistically see potentially following Pogacar, but endurance will largely favour the Slovenian. Still a podium would be a great result.

Lennert van Eetvelt - The Belgian had bad luck at the UAE Tour and didn't get to show his climbing legs, but his form is there. Van Eetvelt reminds me of a small Pogacar, who can ride and fight for wins just about anywhere. He is a terrific climber, including for such short and explosive efforts. Endurance is there and last year he battled for a top result, so I think Lotto have a card for the podium with him.

Christian Scaroni - Astana have Alberto Bettiol, Diego Ulissi and Simone Velasco as outsiders but in his current form, Scaroni really is a great prospect. I can't say if he will love the gravel, we do not have this benchmark in his palmarès. But with the short explosive climbs and his current form, he can be one of the best on the day. Astana will chase UCI points so he may not have the best support however.

Lidl-Trek - This is an incredibly dangerous team. For the win well, it's unlikely, but we focus on the podium fight. We've got Quinn Simmons who comes as a bit of a wildcard but lovs this race; Toms Skujins who was second to Pogacar last year and always shows up at the key races; but perhaps most importantly Mathias Vacek who looked incredibly strong these past few weeks and specially at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. The Czech rider is an outstanding podium contender and it wouldn't come as a surprise anymore for me.

Romain Grégoire - Groupama come in with David Gaudu but the Frenchman will likely prioritize safety, as like Mikel Landa, he is here to prepare for the Giro's 'mini Strade Bianche'. Valentin Madouas hasn't shown his best legs recently but is the kind of rider for this endurance test, but Groupama's best chances likely lie with Romain Grégoire who has won in France over the weekend and is on stellar form.

INEOS have got a very threatening duo in a top-form Ben Turner who should love this terrain and Michal Kwiatkowski who comes off a win at the Clásica Jaen Paraiso Interior - the race that is most similar to this one, that happened only two weeks ago. We do not lack men in form for this race such as Uno-X coming in with Magnus Cort Nielsen from Gran Camiño and the likes of Gianni Vermeersch, Quinten Hermans and Roger Adrià who looked formidable in the Opening Weekend (despite having as a main task working for their teammates, but should have a leadership role here). 

On a second line of outsiders, who perhaps have also good chances but their form doesn't seem as sharp (or even in great form, they will have a challenge with the big names here) we've got men like Marc Hirschi, Ben Tulett, Kévin Vauquelin, Jan Tratnik, Joe Blackmore; Bahrain duo Pello Bilbao and Matej Mohoric; EF duo Richard Carapaz and Ben Healy; and Cofidis duo Dylan Teuns and Alex Aranburu.

This is however a race that can always throw up some surprises. Besides teammates of some big leaders who can benefit from the strategic move of their initial leaders, we can have some less known riders take on a Top10 result despite the very strong field and brutal race. Such a race, despite it's difficulties, can greatly reward a rider who has a great day, great luck and choses the right timings for his efforts. Louis Barré, Max Poole, Davide Formolo, Jayco duo of Filippo Zana and off-road specialist Alan Hatherly; and finally Decathlon who've got Clément Berthet, Jordan Labrosse and Bastien Tronchon are are riders with some potential.

*** Tadej Pogacar
** Tom Pidcock, Christian Scaroni, Mathias Vacek, Romain Grégoire, Lennert van Eetvelt
* Isaac del Toro, Tim Wellens, Alberto Bettiol, Toms Skujins, Quinn Simmons, Valentin Madouas, Michal Kwiatkowski, Ben Turner, Marc Hirschi, Pello Bilbao, Matej Mohoric, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Gianni Vermeersch, Roger Adria, Ben Healy, Kévin Vauquelin, Ben Tulett, Richard Carapaz

Pick: Tadej Pogacar

How: Attack 81 kilometers a way from the finish, replica of last year. It prevents rivals from anticipating, he should have the form to keep it up and the further away the race is attacked the better for him (a specialist on solo moves).