PREVIEW | Strade Bianche 2023 - Van der Poel, Pidcock and Alaphilippe gear up for epic gravel battle

Preview. It is on the 4th of March that the peloton will take on what is one of the most unique and prestigious race in the calendar. It is Strade Bianche, which will take place on the Italian region of Tuscany and will include plenty gravel roads which make the race distinct from the majority of the calendar.

The big route we all know. Well maybe big isn’t the right word, after all of the big classics this is one of the shortest with a “mere” 184 Kilometers in length, but damn if these aren’t some of the most exciting of the whole year!

There are 61.9Km of gravel divided into 11 sectors, as short as 800 meters long and as big as 11.9Km in length, and they aren’t concentrated in any specific area of the route but rather spread evenly throughout the race, it’s one of attrition, where tactics, positioning and let’s admit, a tad bit of luck all have to be ticked off the box. The route starts off in some rolling roads and just a bit before the halfway point of the race the first major challenge comes.

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Start Time: 11:45CET.

Finish Time: 16:30CET.

Lucignano d’Asso sector, the 5th and biggest of the race and finishes with 96Km to go, it’s a fairly hard sector that has a lot of room for crashes, punctures, splits, etc… Every sector (and well every Kilometer) is a chance for something to go wrong, and like in the cobbles it’s a matter of having the least possible energy spent unnecessary, this is where the real race starts!

Monte Sante Marie is perhaps the first crucial sector of the race, ending with just over 40 kilometers to go and featuring a whole kilometer at 10%. However the sheer size and diversity of gradients found throughout the sector makes it a brutal one that will inevitably explode the race.

Colle Pinzuto finishes with 17Km to go and is one of the last pieces of brutal roads where gaps can be made out of power and not opportunity, it’s one that doesn’t include descents so it’s quite a brute.

Le Tolfe is the final sector of the race, it summits with 11Km to go and is a U shaped sector, you enter it full speed in a descent and then have a nasty ramp in the gravel, the last white road of the race and for sure at this race we can have the rider, or the group of riders who will fight for the win.

From there on there are 12 kilometers into the finish line. They will by no means be easy as the road keeps tilting either up or down, however it does give some opportunity to reconsolidate the race and possible form alliances ahead of the final ascent.

If a group, it will all be decided in the narrow streets of Siena, Via Santa Caterina is one of the most iconic places in cycling and you’re sure to get some awesome images. The decisive ramp will go up to 16% in it's steepest section (700 meters, 9% average gradient) and the final corners into the heart of Siena will be a final opportunity to overtake other riders.

The Weather

The skies will be cloudy but dry. Here however won't won't make things safer, as lack of traction will be complicated in the white road sectors, specially those that feature downhill sections. Technique will be crucial. There will be a small breeze from the north but it should not affect the outcome of the race.

Tactics

It's a race where you can't hide yourself. Crashes and punctures are unfortunately going to be part of the spectacle, but the terrain the riders are to face has no mercy. The descents will be terrifying, the climbs gruesome with brutal gradients, and the sheer volume of difficult terrain sees the riders exhausted even before the final 16% ramps. It's a race that is unmatched.

As every year positioning is key into the sectors, making for a very tense race constantly. Splits will surely happen in the more technical sectors, whilst recent racing also indicated the race is set to open early with several attacks. Some teams have quite a lot of depth and they must make use of it before Monte Sante Marie. There, if a favourite attacks all domestiques and second-cards are dropped and no longer have much use in the fight for victory.

Surely then you can expect something from INEOS and UAE mostly as they try to anticipate the big moves. But with the likes of van der Poel, Pidcock and Alaphilippe present the race may explode with a winning move early. Also, as the finale is uphill, alliances out front are more likely, as in the final climb it doesn't matter who's the best climber or sprinter, but instead who has the better legs up to that point.

The Favourites

Mathieu van der Poel - The first day of the season. On paper this is a perfect race for van der Poel as he finds explosive climbs and treacherous roads where technique is necessary. Alpecin have a strong enough team to support him here with the likes of Gogl, Stannard and Vermeersch, and so it's up to the Dutchman to perform and try to win for a second time in Siena.

INEOS - Tom Pidcock is showing great form and this is exactly his kind of race. INEOS have great chances of taking a win here, not only with the Briton but with a strong team that follows him including Michal Kwiatkowski, Carlos Rodríguez and Magnus Sheffield.

Quick-Step - Julian Alaphilippe had a very hard 2022 but looks back to a great level. After his spectacular fall last year, the 2019 winner is looking for revenge, and his recent victory at the Faun-Ardèche Classic is a great sign. An explosive and incredibly strong technical rider, it's his chance to bounce back big time. The presence of Mauri Vansevenant and Andrea Bagioli as outsiders make Quick-Step one of the strongest teams in the field.

Pello Bilbao & Matej Mohoric - Bilbao is a well rounded rider who will like the descents, but also has the power for the short climbs. Fourth at the UAE Tour he definitely has the form as well, with Matej Mohoric kicking in huge gears during the Opening Weekend. Results have not yet fallen in the way of the Slovenian but he is on the brink of a big win this year.

UAE - Without Pogacar but nevertheless a very strong team. UAE come in with Tim Wellens who is on spectacular form, recently shown at the Opening Weekend. Having the presence of Diego Ulissi, Alessandro Covi, Davide Formolo and Brandon McNulty effectively mean the team have five different cards - at least - to play for a strong result, and can be aggressive from early on.

Sergio Higuita & Aleksandr Vlasov - Although both Higuita and Vlasov would prefer some longer climbs, the terrain in Tuscany is very rugged and the ascents are opportunities for them to follow along as many suffer. Outsiders for the race, but having two options makes BORA more reliable and if they show their best level they can even be in the fight for the win.

Rui Costa & Lorenzo Rota - Rui Costa has been reborn in Intermarché, he's the four best rider on the UCI ranks and the team sits second. Three wins and terrific form already this year back him up to be an outsider if he can get over the technical sections. Lorenzo Rota will be another strong card for the Belgian team, another puncheur who's started the season in strong form.

Tiesj Benoot - The form is there. Benoot was seriously injured in August and only started his season this weekend, but has won Kuurne - Bruxelles - Kuurne. Now in a race that actually suits him very well, the 2018 departs as a leading favourite without a doubt as Jumbo-Visma are flying in this start to the season. Fourth last year Attila Valter will also be at the start line after putting on a hell of a job supporting Jonas Vingegaard at Gran Camino.

There are big contenders outside of it. Alexey Lutsenko for example who has won the Clásica Jaén Paraiso Interior last year, but with him not having shown his best form yet this year he's an outsider. Valentin Madouas who was on the podium of the Tour des Flandres will be another strong outside, perhaps Warren Barguil and gravel specialist Quinn Simmons will also be eyeing a very strong result, a podium is possible. I also rate Alberto Bettiol relatively high, but that is if he shows his best form, which is not all too likely.

Long are the days where the battles would be between Peter Sagan, Zdenek Stybar and Greg van Avermaet, but they are all present, however all of these now sit as minor outsiders.

There are some more classics specialists or puncheurs who may perform here, and be that surprise or strong result within the Top10. Simon Clarke, Maxim van Gils, Axel Zingle and Mathieu Burgaudeau are some options, whilst Movistar has two figures in Ruben Guerreiro and Alex Aranburu.

Prediction Strade Bianche 2023:

*** Tom Pidcock, Tiesj Benoot, Tim Wellens
** Mathieu van der Poel, Julian Alaphilippe, Matej Mohoric
* Andrea Bagioli, Pello Bilbao, Lorenzo Rota, Attila Valter, Valentin Madouas, Alberto Bettiol, Simon Clarke

Pick: Tim Wellens