PREVIEW | Paris-Nice 2023 stage 4 - Echelons and mountains loom as Vingegaard and Pogacar fight for yellow jersey

Preview. Stage 4 of Paris-Nice can be a crucial day for the overall classification, as the riders take on the first summit finish of the race, in a day that is also expected to be swept by strong crosswinds.

Stage four will be another important day for the GC. Not one where the race will be won, but the race can be lost on the climb to La Loge des Gardes. The first two thirds of the day are actually quite gentle, not pan-flat but without any categorized climb and mostly regular flat roads. Towards the finale however the peloton will tackle some hilly terrain.

Start Time: 12:40CET

Finish Time: 16:40CET

2Km at 5.8%, 4Km at 3.5%, 5.8Km at 3.8% and 8.9Km at 3.1% all in the space of just 35 kilometers and little descending. It won't destroy the peloton but it will distance some riders and weaken the leadouts and support ahead of the final climb. With a descent into it's base it's set to be a furious one, but it is in this climb of the Massif Central where the overall classification will once again come into play.

La Loge des Gardes. 6.7 kilometers at 7%, but this climb hides a secret that is not visible on the profile. Besides the downhill to the base which will have the peloton stretched out, it's first kilometer has several wide turns, and later on five switchbacks in quick succession. On a normal day this would not be a climb where much damage could be done in my opinion, but on a closer look it seems to be a very explosive climb, suited for early attacks, and with the riders present there surely will be contenders to make it happen.

The Weather

Clouds and strong wind. This will be a horrific day and could spell disaster for GC for many riders before they even reach the climbs. Strong southwestern wind all day long through flat and exposed plains mean echelons, and they are almost certain. In the final climb there should largely be a tailwind, not completely but speeds will be quite high, and it fits attacking behaviour.

Tactics

Echelons can virtually happen anywhere in the first half of the stage, so alarms will be ringing from kilometer 0. There will be no time to be at the back of the peloton, it'll be a very demanding day both physically and mentally. Some teams will be more vulnerable, however in the fight for the podium only INEOS can be said not to have a very strong team for this terrain - although they surely hold their own.

Most likely the battle for the stage win will come, naturally, in the final ascent. I expect attacks from very early on. The downhill and treacherous approach to the base will line things up. UAE will very likely aim to enter in the front and put in a stinging 1/2-minute acceleration with Tim Wellens, launching an attack for Pogacar. Neither UAE or Jumbo have a team to be pacing this climb, and no-one else will be attacking beforehand as they know they're better off following wheels.

The Favourites

Tadej Pogacar - A big challenge UAE has worked enough in the crosswinds to likely be safe here with Pogacar in the wheel. In good form there is no weakness for Pogacar. He will likely be well positioned regardless of what takes place. The final climb is explosive and suits him better than Jonas Vingegaard.

Jonas Vingegaard - Vingegaard has 11 seconds over Tadej Pogacar. In the crosswinds it could more likely happen as Jumbo are packed with powerhouse riders, but most likely it'll all come down to the final climb. I think most likely he will aim for yellow as he's the first GC rider in the overall classification, and above all not lose time on the road to Pogacar.

Simon Yates - Yates at his best level should be able to contest with the two riders above, and he looks fit. Almost taking the win last year, the Briton is a fan of the French race, has a good team for the possible echelons and also likes the rough weather. He will most likely be the closes contender to victory outside of the big two.

David Gaudu and Romain Bardet will lead France ambitions at Paris-Nice, the first specially as he's shown strong form in February and has had a strong team time-trial with Groupama. The home nation has quite some cards and tomorrow they will all be put to the test however as Pavel Sivakov will be a wildcard for INEOS Grenadiers, Pierre Latour who joined Pogacar on the opening stage leads TotalEnergies, Tour des Alpes Maritimes et du Var winner Kévin Vauquelin will have a big test and Aurélien Paret-Peintre will also be leading AG2R.

Sivakov will most likely be a second card at INEOS as Daniel Martínez looks to build on last year's podium spot. Mattias Skjelmose and Neilson Powless have shown great form over February in the local races and will attempt to stay inside the fight for the podium or perhaps Top5 here, the crosswinds will be the biggest danger. Matteo Jorgenson has shown equally strong form at the Tour of Oman and will have a big opportunity here.

Bahrain will feature Jack Haig, Gino Mäder and Wout Poels all present all as possibilities in the fight for the GC. Cofidis bring in Ion Izagirre and Max Schachmann may have a go for BORA - hansgrohe, far away from the high mountains and on a race where he's thrived in the past.

Prediction Paris-Nice 2023 stage 4:

*** Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard
** Simon Yates, David Gaudu, Daniel Martínez
* Romain Bardet, Kévin Vauquelin, Mattias Skjelmose, Neilson Powless, Matteo Jorgenson, Jack Haig, Ion Izagirre

Pick: Tadej Pogacar