PREVIEW | Omloop Het Nieuwsblad 2023

Preview. It is time for the opening weekend! Some call it the start of the road season, but unanimously everyone agrees that it is the first big Flemish classic of the year and it all starts with Omloop Het Nieuwsblad

207.5 kilometers on the menu for the first big cobbled classic of the season. Although not as big as the April challenges it's a big day on the bike, with a warm-up for the monuments. The first half of the day should be relatively calm with only a couple of sectors and bergs, but this will change shortly after.

Start Time: 11:15CET

Finish Time: 16:15CET

From 56 to 27.5Km to go we find the second set of sectors, where attacks are expected, anticipating the run-up to Geraardsbergen. Here is where team depth will kick in, with many teams looking to put pressure over the rivals and distance themselves from the responsibility of working. Here there will be four cobbled sectors, four bergs and one sector which is both cobbled and uphill, all in quick succession.

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The final decisive sections come with the Muur de Geraardsbergen, summiting with 16 kilometers to go, needs no introduction, will be a place where any group ahead of the peloton will loose time as the leadout to the cobbles is always furious. Over the top gaps can be created, the Bosberg will follow quickly after with 12 kilometers to go, it’s also hard but to create gaps is much more complicated, unless if it’s a sprint over the top.

Things consolidate between the two sectors and the riders within a chance of winning are usually very evenly matched, and separated in the steep gradients. From there on it’s a fast, slight downhill approach to Ninove where the riders will finish the race in familiar roads. The same technical finale of previous year won't be present, but it will nonetheless be a flat finish just outside the city center.

The Weather

The weather won't be gentle, with a meaningful breeze from the north. This can have quite some effect. Over much of the race the twists and turns will be constant, but this changes in the flat finale and run-in to Ninove. After the Bosberg the riders find a cross-headwind, and into town a block headwind. This favours the odds of a sprint finish significantly, and solo attacks become a mythical task for anyone considering one.

Tactics

Omloop Het Nieuwsblad is frequently a more conservative race, there are three reasons for that: The first cobbled classic of the season, it is one where many come to test their form and feel in the race. The second is that the race does not feature many difficult climbs throughout it's course, and the most difficult and meaningful challenges are by far the Muur de Geraardsbergen and the Bosberg towards the end - most will save their legs towards that moment.

Third before the Muur there is a long flat section. This will be very fast and a furious leadout battle as teams will still have several riders alongside their leaders. Any early attack will inevitably lose significant time here, and be burnt before the main efforts. Hence, the attacks that are meaningful come from the Muur onwards. They can create some damage, but the headwind into Ninove favours bigger groups, and the teams that protect their sprinters.

This will happen with certainty. The question is if a small group can go off the front over the Bosberg and keep the gap until the finish. For that, the race has to go full-on since the bottom of the Muur with no rest as well, because anything more than 20 riders will likely see some sort of collaboration and an eventual sprint to decide the race - late attacks will hardly be successful as they go straight into a block headwind.

The Favourites

Arnaud de Lie - The new kid on the block. Yes it is virtually his debut in a big cobbled classic, but a victory would not be a surprise. De Lie has an incredibly strong sprint but most importantly he's proven himself on hilly terrain on several occasions. Whether he can keep up with attacks on the climbs is a harder task, but he should be able to defend himself and in a possible sprint he'd be a big contender. The presence of Victor Campenaerts within Lotto is also important.

INEOS - INEOS are a team that have to attack, but they do have the means for that. Tom Pidcock emerged successful from his Volta ao Algarve stint, whilst Ben Turner has also been showing tremendous form. On the climbs these two can cause chaos. The presence of quality all-rounders such as Magnus Sheffield and Michal Kwiatkowski can be a nightmare for those looking to chase.

Quick-Step - The traditional team, but with some serious quality. Yves Lampaert and Florian Sénéchal are both present and will be looking to prove themselves. Quick-Step is a very experienced team and they will know how to play this out, however they do have to attack. The team do have Casper Pedersen and former race winner Davide Ballerini as options in case it does come to a bigger group finish.

Jasper Philipsen - Alpecin - Deceuninck have Soren Kragh Andersen on his debut for the team, but despite the rough terrain sights should be on Philipsen. The Belgian has showed quality in the rugged terrain, and is another threat in case of a small bunch finish, as Alpecin know very well how to race on this terrain.

Bahrain - Victorious - Matej Mohoric has been looking in good form and hungry for a win in Andalucia. This won't be the ideal conditions for the Slovenian but he's one of the most dangerous rouleurs in the peloton. However Bahrain have a second serious weapon in Jonathan Milan who can sprint well after a rough day - and Fred Wright who can cover both possibilities.

UAE - Tim Wellens has made his debut winning in the season, and as always his form is on point early on. UAE have him and Matteo Trentin as offensive options and will certainly be a big card. Pascal Ackermann can on his day also perform in such a race and is an outsider for a possible sprint.

TotalEnergies - A diverse team, but a true classics block. Peter Sagan will always be main name and he has shown good legs at San Juan, on paper this would be a perfect race for him at his prime. But the French team do have more cards, with Edvald Boasson Hagen showing good form recently, and the classics specialist duo of Anthony Turgis and Dries van Gestel giving range to the ProTeam.

Arkéa - Now at World Tour level, responsibility is higher within Arkéa. But they keep their classics quality and depth. Jenthe Biermans and Matis Louvel form a strong leading duo whose sprint capacity makes them dangerous. The French team in no way has the responsibility to be working or chasing attacks, and that lack of pressure simultaneously gives them a big opportunity to surprise.

The list of contenders does spread further however. In the field of the sprinters alone you find riders such as Alexander Kristoff, Ivan Cortina, Marius Mayrhofer, Jordi Meeus, Hugo Page and Mike Teunissen, all dangerous outsiders for this race. Jumbo-Visma lack Wout van Aert but have Christophe Laporte, with new signing Dylan van Baarle also to be a dangerous figure for the finale.

Then you have some experienced classics riders such as Greg van Avermaet, Jasper Stuyven and Sep Vanmarcke who are always there or thereabouts in this type of race and should be trying to stir attacks towards the end. Puncheurs such as Benoît Cosnefroy and Axel Zingle will also be interesting to see, and how they do in such terrain.

Prediction Omloop Het Nieuwsblad:

*** Arnaud de Lie, Christophe Laporte
** Matej Mohoric, Dylan van Baarle, Stefan Küng
* Tom Pidcock, Ben Turner, Jasper Philipsen, Victor Campenaerts, Tim Wellens, Casper Pedersen, Jonathan Milan, Alexander Kristoff, Jordi Meeus, Peter Sagan, Jasper Stuyven

Pick: Arnaud De Lie