PREVIEW | Itzulia Basque Country 2023 stage 4 - Jonas Vingegaard on a mission to defend yellow jersey on tricky day

Preview. Jonas Vingegaard has taken the lead of Itzulia Basque Country and now the tables have turned. He is now the man to beat and stage 4 will be a tricky day where riders have several opportunities to attack.

Stage 4 has quite a lot of rolling roads into Saturtzi. It's another difficult day that should be quite open. Breakaway and GC fight for the stage win are both very possible. When it comes to the win itself it can come from a sprint, a surprise late attack or a big move within the final ascent of the day. A lot can happen in what is another full day of climbing the small rises on the road.

Estimated start and time times for Stage 4: 14:00 - 18:30CET

The most decisive spot of the day will be the climb to La Asturiana. Contrary to the name it's a Basque ascent, it's 7.6 kilometers long at 6.3% but the first half is quite steeper. The climb summits with 15.2 kilometers to go and it's first half is quite hard, mostly featuring gradients around 10%. The first 3800 meters of it feature an average gradient of 8.8%.

A descent will follow before an explosive finale. The descent will be extremely technical with many switchbacks. The gradients will also be present, it is the type of descent where differences can be created without a doubt. The final 4 kilometers see the race stabilize, but it will be a very fast run-up to the finish line, with the final kilometer losing 30 meters in elevation.

The Weather

Calm temperatures and only a very slight breeze from the north. It continues to be irrelevant for the outcome of the day.

The Favourites

Jonas Vingegaard - Now in the race lead. This stage when it comes to the climbs shouldn't be too hard for the Dane, specially as Jumbo-Visma do have the weapons to control the race here, Attila Valter seems to be in great form and will help. Attacks are expected however as everyday time can be won here. I would say the descent will be more of a danger than the climb for him.

I do expect the race to explode because the final climb definitely has gradients for that to be the case, and I can't expect the GC riders to just wait if an opportunity arises. On the final day specially it'll be hard to dislodge the Dane, so this can be an opportunity, specially as the end of the climb isn't as steep and can see more threatening accelerations. Mikel Landa and Enric Mas looked sharp today and I risk to say they may be the biggest opponents, but David Gaudu should be at around the same level.

Simon Yates, Mattias Skjelmose, Richard Carapaz and Sergio Higuita will also be around there certainly, and all within range of a stage-winning attack. The likes of Brandon McNulty and Rigoberto Uran could be very dangerous in a downhill attack, or one just before the summit. Quality climbers, them and several of the riders above could take it with a late move in the final kilometers. Some of the attackers today such as Esteban Chaves, Juan Pedro López and James Knox can also be threatening, they've given very good signs today.

The stage could be however for the puncheurs. It's an ideal finale for attackers however we have very strong riders outside the climber field. Alex Aranburu should be a demon descender and is climbing quite well. Ide Schelling seems to have suffered today but his win on stage 2 hints that he could also feature. The likes of Andrea Bagioli, Felix Gall and Quinten Hermans pack a strong sprint that could see them as men to beat if they survive into the end.

Movistar also have options in Ruben Guerreiro and Gonzalo Serrano. Some other riders have also been looking good in recent weeks and here as well, such as Matteo Sobrero, Remi Rochas and Mauro Schmid who could try to surprise and taken a strong win.

Prediction Itzulia Basque Country 2023 stage 4:

*** Alex Aranburu, Sergio Higuita
** Ion Izagirre, David Gaudu, Mattias Skjelmose, Andrea Bagioli
* Jonas Vingegaard, Mikel Landa, Enric Mas, Simon Yates, Brandon McNulty, Richard Carapaz, Felix Gall, Quinten Hermans, Matteo Sobrero

Pick: Brandon McNulty