Preview. Stage 1 of the Itzulia Basque Country is far from a flat stage, but it should be the best opportunity for all the fast men who have travelled over to the region.
Stage 1 will be a tough opening day for the Basque race, in traditional fashion as the day lacks any serious climb but is filled with small ascents and rolling roads. If any day could be considered one for the sprinters it would be this one, however with a tough start and 2500 meters of climbing it'll be far from certain.
Estimated start and time times for Stage 1: 14:20 - 18:30CET
The stage doesn't properly have a big feature to point out, but instead is filled with small climbs all throughout. It's not an unfamiliar sight for those who ride around. The final will be rather hilly with a few hilltops leading up to the finish in Labastida. The intermediate sprint with 20 kilometers to go is at the top of an 800-meter climb at 7% where attacks may happen.
They may also later. There won't be truly flat roads all the way into the finish. The closing kilometers are not technical but are quite unusual. The riders will have a 500-meter rise into 1.7 kilometers to go, and then another that ends with around only 200 meters to go. Both feature gradients up to 7%. The road tilts down before the final straight, it is very likely to be a very chaotic and open sprint - if it comes to that at all.
The Weather
A small northeastern breeze, but it shouldn't affect the outcome of the race.
The Favourites
The fast men that are here on course are not many, but they do exist. Two teams in particular may want to control the race and have good chances of succeeding in a sprint. Alex Aranburu and Ethan Hayter are not pure sprinters, but they are riders who should be able to comfortably overcome these types of climbs and have the upper edge in a sprint.
Trek - Segafredo may want to give a hand to control it, Jon Aberasturi could on paper be the fastest pure sprinter and be a strong option for the outcome of the day as well. Andrea Vendrame, Stefano Oldani and Orluis Aular are also decent cards for the finale.
As for the puncheurs, of which there are several as they prepare for the Ardennes classics, there are also some cards to play. Ide Schelling for example has put on a great performance at the Volta a Catalunya and would be a very dangerous finisher, he and Sergio Higuita give BORA - hansgrohe options.
Quinten Hermans, Andrea Bagioli, Mauro Schmid and Gonzalo Serrano are also riders who can on paper contest such a day, and out of the GC contenders who may have bonifications in hand, we may see Pello Bilbao and Mattias Skjelmose try out their luck.
Attacks could also possibly succeed. It wouldn't be hard as not too many sprinters are here, and the rolling roads fit attackers. Rémi Cavagna and Marc Soler would be my two options for such a move, two men in great form who can deal quite well with this terrain.
Prediction Itzulia Basque Country 2023 stage 1:
*** Alex Aranburu, Ethan Hayter
** Jon Aberasturi, Ide Schelling, Andrea Vendrame
* Stefano Oldani, Quinten Hermans, Sergio Higuita, Mattias Skjelmose, Pello Bilbao, Mauro Schmid, Rémi Cavagna
Pick: Ethan Hayter
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