Stage 15: Manerba del Garda - Livigno, 222 kilometers
In any way, it will start a day of hard climbing for everyone. The day won't feature brutal ascents, but the repeated long efforts will be damaging. The Passo del Mortirolo will be next in line, the riders won't go through it's hardest side but it will still be a decently hard ascent. 12.6 kilometers at 7.6%, it summits with 67 kilometers to go. Many will be dropped here, whilst the very technical and steep descent provides an opportunity to surprise and split the peloton.
Passo del Mortirolo: 12.6Km; 7.7%; 67Km to go
A slight rise will then follow, the riders climb significantly actually before even reaching the base of the Passo di Foscagno. It's 14.6 kilometers at 6.3% but the riders will already start it fatigued. The ascent is relatively constant, it summits at almost 2300 meters of altitude and is only 9 kilometers away from the finish line. Attacks are expected, this is the main ascent of the day where the GC riders will surely go all-out.
Passo di Foscagno: 14.6Km; 6.3%; 9Km to go
But it's not the last climb of the day. A small but very fast descent will follow, into the base of Mottolino. Just outside of Livigno, the riders will climb to the ski station through a small road wich is 4.7 kilometers long at 7.3%. This climb can still make differences, it is also difficult enough for that (specially as the last half of the ascent sees a meaningful portion above 10%), but also the summit finish is located at almost 2400 meters of altitude where a few riders may struggle.
The Weather
Map Giro d'italia 2024 stage 15
Slight northern breeze closer to Livigno. In the valleys it shouldn't be felt, but honestly in the climbs it shouldn't be too difference. It will be quite cold at altitude which will require caution and attention from the riders; a different challenge to what the race has been so far, but not something that is extreme in any way.
The Favourites
Tadej Pogacar - What will he want out of this day? I don't think he will want another stage win, but I think the day may be so hard that ultimately it can fall to the GC riders. No action before Foscagno from the GC riders who are fighting for the top positions... But a lot of breakaway riders will drop until then and it's a very very long day on the bike. The final climbs are hard enough to make serious differences and I would think that after saving legs for several days, this weekend he will try to cement the race. He definitely can, I don't think UAE will burn themselves trying but unless the perfect group goes up the road, his climbing superiority may end up taking away the chance from the rest.
GC fight - I do expect a few smaller GC contenders to try and join the breakaway, but here I discuss what should happen directly about the main men. Geraint Thomas is now second, but almost 4 minutes back on Pogacar. No-one will go to the front on the climbs to test the Slovenian anymore, but INEOS like to race from the front and although I don't think Thomas would be happy with a second place in the race, it's realistically the best he can achieve. Daniel Martínez would be happy with a third place, BORA will not look to attack the race.
But around 40 seconds back is Ben O'Connor who has a strong Decathlon behind him, the team will certainly test Martínez. Antonio Tiberi will likely do the same if he has the legs... Whilst Thymen Arensman I'd say is now close enough to the GC that he will not risk it all on this day, but I wouldn't exclude him trying to get in the breakaway if INEOS have one or two more riders and maybe other strong riders he can work with.
Other riders should see differences just by matching the previously mentioned figures. I expect Einer Rubio, now 11th after a poor time-trial, to really be keen on taking time back on rivals as he's been showing great climbing form.
But yes, the victory can end up going to a breakaway. The main argument for this is the fact that... The stage is 222 kilometers long, and although you can argue the first bit is flat, I doubt any team will put a serious effort to work throughout a stage that will be over six hours long. Also long climbs spread throughout the day mean that a serious chasing effort will have to take it easy uphill to then have the firepower to chase on the flat roads. Besides, deep into the second week, we've got quality climbers who have lost time in the GC and have freedom - and of course, a few KOM contenders who are extra motivated to keep going for as long as possible.
Bahrain - Victorious has in two different days worked when no other team wanted to, so as to prevent GC outsiders to enter the Top10. This cuts into the possible tactics of a few riders that are just outside the Top10. Also, with a brutal stage ahead, a good day could mean entering the Top10 just by following the GC riders. So
Domenico Pozzovivo, 14th, is the first who realistically has this freedom.
Esteban Chaves, Davide Piganzoli and
Aurélien Paret-Peintre sit close to him and will also be contenders for the day.
Simon Geschke too, but he should be focusing on the KOM classification... It is an important day for that classification and other riders such as Frenchmen
Valentin Paret-Peintre and
Lilian Calmejane could have that in mind too already at the start of the stage.
To fight for the stage win we would also have contenders in
Giovanni Aleotti if he is given the freedom (unlikely) from BORA who have Daniel Martínez to protect;
Juan Pedro López, Damiano Caruso, Giulio Pellizzari, Georg Steinhauser, Nairo Quintana or Visma duo
Attila Valter and
Jan Tratnik if they are on a good day.
Prediction Giro d'italia 2024 stage 15:
*** Tadej Pogacar, Valentin Paret-Peintre
** Auréllien Paret-Peintre, Nairo Quintana
* Geraint Thomas, Daniel Martínez, Ben O'Connor, Antonio Tiberi, Einer Rubio, Esteban Chaves, Simon Geschke, Jan Tratnik, Giulio Pellizzari
Pick: Tadej Pogacar
