PREVIEW | Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 20 - Thomas and Roglic fight for Giro d'Italia win at horrific climb in final time-trial
Cycling
Preview. With the battle for the overall classification once again being conservative in the queen stage, the fight for the pink jersey is left for the final time-trial of the Giro d'Italia, stage 20 ends at the brutal Monte Lussari.
Stage 20 of the Giro d'Italia will be the final day for the overall classification contenders. It is likely to be within the distance of 11 kilometers with a flat first half, and a brutal second half. In total there are 18.6 kilometers, but don't be mistaken all riders will take it conservatively early on, and with a bike chance expected at the base of the final climb.
Estimated start and finish times for Giro d'Italia stage 20: 11:30-18:30CET
Stage 20 (ITT): Tarvision - Monte Lussari, 18.6Km
And the ascent is quite simply put: grizzly. It's brutal in every way. In total it is 7.6 kilometers at 11.3% but this is actually modest in comparison to the climb's true difficulty. It features it's first 4.7 kilometers at 15% average, just a constant grind at this insane gradient which will make for an horrific effort. Afterwards the grades do come down into what can be considered a normal climb.
However it is by no means easy, riders will already be at their limit at this point even with tiny chainrings, but there are still some very nasty ramps of over 15% in the closing three kilometers of the ascent. It's a very scenic finale but riders will need to pull off something special to get to the top.
The Weather
Map Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 20
Some northeastern wind, a tailwind in the first kilometers of the time-trial, but in the climb it won't make a difference, it'll be too covered from the elements.
The Favourites
Geraint Thomas - Consistent and strong in all terrains. Thomas has gotten himself in position to win the Giro and he will no longer be attacked. In all honesty he doesn't have to pull of something special, the Welshman has to do what he's done since stage 8. If nothing goes wrong, Thomas finally takes the Giro win that he's looked for in past years.
Primoz Roglic - All year long I had a feeling over this time-trial, it remains the same. On paper Roglic in his best years could decimate a day like this, but on several occasions he has struggled on time-trials in the final week of a Grand Tour. His form is very good and partly because of his preparation, the climb will also suit him. Giro win is possible, I don't think he will crack as it's happened in the past but to remove the 26 seconds he has on Thomas will be very hard.
João Almeida - 59 seconds now is a lot. Against a Thomas who has shown no fragility the pink dream has faded for Almeida. The podium is secure, the stage win is possible, but he looks a tad below the two above when it comes to climbing speed currently and the brutally steep climb also won't be a preference.
Will the win come outside of those three riders? No. I had the belief Jay Vine could match them, but today he was nowhere to be seen and most likely will not have the legs. Behind only the battle for minor places will matter.
Thymen Arensman and Damiano Caruso both looked quite good today and having performed strongly in the past time-trials, the Dutchman is narrowly behind Eddie Dunbar and Thibaut Pinot and could rise to fifth. Then the battle for 8th place we have Lennard Kämna and Andreas Leknessund separated by 14 seconds. Lastly the fight for the final spot in the Top10 sees Laurens de Plus 10 seconds ahead of Einer Rubio, the Belgian is likely to gain time early on but the climb will balance it out.
Prediction Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 20:
*** Geraint Thomas, Primoz Roglic
** João Almeida
* Thymen Arensman, Damiano Caruso, Eddie Dunbar, Lennard Kämna
** João Almeida
* Thymen Arensman, Damiano Caruso, Eddie Dunbar, Lennard Kämna
Pick: Geraint Thomas
Rúben SilvaEditor-in-Chief
A founding contributor to CyclingUpToDate since its launch in January 2022, Ruben Silva has played a central role in shaping the site’s editorial direction and long-term growth. Before joining the project, he built his experience through independent blogging at Echelons Hub and by producing race previews for Ciclismo Internacional, developing a strong analytical voice rooted in daily engagement with professional cycling.
Beyond editorial work, he has been closely involved in the expansion and coordination of CyclingUpToDate’s wider network, helping establish and support sister platforms across multiple languages. This includes ongoing collaboration with CiclismoAlDia (Spanish), CiclismoAtual (Portuguese), WielrennenUpToDate (Dutch), and RadsportAktuell (German), contributing to a shared editorial vision and consistent international coverage.
He also helps oversee editorial governance across the network, setting standards for accuracy and consistency and coordinating updates or corrections when needed.
Originally from the Porto metropolitan area in Portugal, he holds a bachelor’s degree in Geography. His path into cycling journalism was shaped not through formal media training, but through independent reporting, community engagement, and sustained on-the-ground involvement in the sport.
Over the course of his career, he has conducted approximately 100 interviews across road cycling and cyclocross, ranging from one-to-one conversations and online formats to press conferences and on-site pre- and post-race coverage. His interviews include leading riders, team managers, and prominent figures within cycling media: Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard, Mathieu van der Poel, Primoz Roglic, Wout van Aert, Joao Almeida and Tom Pidcock; managers like Patrick Lefevere and Joxean Matxin; and YouTube personality Bryan Kennedy (BKXC)...
Within 18 months of launch, he helped grow CyclingUpToDate’s English-language platform into one of the most-read cycling news websites, built entirely from the ground up. As both a professional journalist and lifelong cycling enthusiast, his focus remains on delivering accurate, timely, and well-contextualized coverage.
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Take a deep breath. 🗺 Here is the Route of the Giro d’Italia 2023. . Fai un respiro profondo. 🗺 Ecco il Percorso del Giro d’Italia 2023. #Giro @ENIT_italia
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