Preview. Stage 14 of the Giro d'Italia sees the riders briefly exit the Alps but not without some hard climbing early in the day. It's a very unusual type of day, one where sprinters and breakaway riders both stand chances.
The 14th stage of the Giro d'Italia will transition out of the Alps momentarily, for a very unusual day. Early in the stage the riders will ride up the Simplonpass, descend it and then have an almost completely flat finale into Cassano Magnano. It's a very unusual profile however that could make for very interesting racing. It's the Giro and the organizers know how to make special stages.
Estimated start and finish times for Giro d'Italia stage 14: 12:05-17:15CET
A flat start to the stage, and a 1.6-kilometer hilltop at 7.6% after 22 kilometers. That will be a warm-up for the main climb of the day however. The Simplonpass summits with 138 kilometers to go. It's a long way to the finish but... It's a whole 20 kilometers at 6.6% that have it's summit at 2000 meters of altitude. The sprinters have to deal with this climb if they want to fight for the win. The pace also can't be too easy, otherwise the riders that will inevitably attack may gain an unreachable gap.
The riders come down and then face a flat final 100 kilometers. There will be the need to control the breakaway, but roads flat and non-technical, ideal terrain to put in a strong organized chase. In the final 20 kilometers there will be a couple of hilltops however it's not something that would disrupt a possible bunch sprint.
As for the expected sprint it won't be easy either. There will be one final tight corner with 2.7 kilometers to go, from there on at the entrance of the final kilometers the riders take a right-hander but they won't need brakes. The finale sees gradients of up to 4%, it's not a regular sprint, but the fast men shouldn't be contested however.
The Weather
Rain expected early in the day, it will be another grey and unpleasant start to the day, likely with rain over the Simplonpass both up and downhill. Throughout the rest of the day however as the riders head further from the mountains it should stop, the wind shouldn't be strong enough to affect the outcome of the day.
The Favourites
Pure sprinters and their teams can unite. The likes of Mark Cavendish and Fernando Gaviria have not yet won a stage for example and have here one of their last opportunities. Jonathan Milan and Pascal Ackermann don't have that pressure and could be equally as dangerous. Simone Consonni, Alberto Dainese, Arne Marit and Niccolò Bonifazio would benefit from a calm day and a bunch sprint.
If the pace does go up and then a reduced peloton makes it's way to the finish - something unlikely - or if some sprinters end up being definitely dropped others could have better chances. Michael Matthews, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Davide Ballerini, Vincenzo Albanese, Stefano Oldani, Filippo Fiorelli and Marius Mayhofer would be favoured in this scenario.
The breakaway stands good chances. Although there are large kilometers to control the stage afterwards, the pass will make it impossible to prevent a strong break from going up the road if the riders so wish. A mix of climbers, puncheurs and rouleurs are certain to try. Nico Denz, Ben Healy, Alberto Bettiol, Bruno Armirail, Derek Gee and Alessandro De Marchi fit the picture quite well - the German may not feel the need to try after his recent win.
Those that will depend more on the climbs you see the likes of Valentin Paret-Peintre, Stevie Williams and Filippo Zana... The KOM fight could see Davide Bais and Thibaut Pinot give it a go, whilst others carry some sprint and could be dangerous such as Christian Scaroni, Patrick Konrad, Simon Clarke and Toms Skujins.
Prediction Giro d'Italia 2023 stage 14:
*** Jonathan Milan, Pascal Ackermann
** Magnus Cort Nielsen, Ben Healy, Derek Gee
* Mark Cavendish, Fernando Gaviria, Michael Matthews, Davide Ballerini, Vincenzo Albanese, Stefano Oladni, Alessandro De Marchi, Patrick Konrad, Toms Skujins
Pick: Jonathan Milan
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