PREVIEW | Criterium du Dauphiné 2025 stage 1 - Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar can explode first day of the race

From the 8th to the 15th of June the riders take on the Criterium du Dauphiné. Not only is this race usually the biggest preview ahead of the Tour de France, but it will also have the presence of Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel. We preview stage 1.

The race kicks off with an hilly stage finishing in Montluçon. Whilst likely not important for the overall classification, the Ardennes-like finale can see some attacks from the GC riders and also those looking to surprise - whilst a sprint can also decide the first yellow jersey.

The stage is quite long, with 195 kilometers on the menu, and this can certainly set up for an interesting finale. The main feature of the day will be a 600-meter long climb at 8% which will be ridden twice, the last of which summiting with 6.5 kilometers to go. It is steep, enough to create differences, but small enough that no-one will really be distanced and splits can likely be closed.

This could be a sprint finish depending on the behaviour of the peloton following the climb, but with a mostly downhill run-in into Montluçon, any rider who fully commits off the front won't be easy to capture.

Some northwestern wind will make things quite tense on this first day of the race, we will have crosswinds in the first portion of the stage quite a lot and this means tension should be quite high all round. Later in the day it shouldn't make a difference, and in the final circuit things will be much less exposed overall.

Sprint finish - Although the day is tough this remains the most likely scenario. The climb provides opportunities for attacks (this includes after the summit) which can be hard to bring back, but the truth is it's not long enough to actually do serious damage specially to those sprinters who can climb at least decently well. As a short effort, not a mountain, this means most of those present should be ok. 

Jonathan Milan is the most prominent name out of all the sprinters in the startlist and he will be the main favourite. Although a heavyweight, the Italian can handle climbs like this quite well and there's no reason to doubt Lidl-Trek will now what to do. Combining that with the interests of other teams to control, it should be possible to bring it back to a sprint.

Both Uno-X (Magnus Cort Nielsen, Soren Waerenskjold) and Israel - Premier Tech (Pascal Ackermann, Jake Stewart) have two cards to play in a sprint. Whilst only one is likely to be used, the potential to make a race-winning leadout does exist for both cases.

Laurence Pithie, Fred Wright, Axel Laurance, Samuel Watson, Simone Velasco, Paul Penhoët and Matteo Trentin are other riders to consider in the case of a fast finish.

Attack - But it would be naive to think that the sprinters will just be allowed to roll into the final kilometers and have a regular sprint. This is the first stage of the Dauphiné, meaning that not only is there a stage win on the line but also a yellow jersey, and there will be no team defending a race lead. This makes it more possible for late attacks to succeed, although they are more likely following the climb as uphill everyone should be able to follow each other.

Tadej Pogacar of course is a rider that should on paper, but is unlikely to race conservatively on this first day. But it fits into UAE's tactics, as even if he cannot get away, destroying the peloton can very much assist the likes of Jhonatan Narváez or Tim Wellens to launch their own attacks which could succeed on the line.

Mathieu van der Poel will be the man for Alpecin-Deceuninck and I don't expect him to be on the top of his game yet, but I do think he'll have good enough form to be card to play, and this sort of climb is right up his alley.

On paper Remco Evenepoel is also extremely dangerous in such a finale, but he will be covered by his rivals with certainty. A rider with similar solo move abilities, Ben Healy, is somehow not covered a lot though and could make the same type of attack succeed. Magnus Sheffield and Matteo Jorgenson would also be very dangerous in such a situation. Finn Fisher-Black, Maxim van Gils, Max Schachmann and Santiago Buitrago are also dangerous riders to take into consideration.

*** Soren Waerenskjold, Pascal Ackermann, Jonathan Milan
** Jake Stewart, Tadej Pogacar
* Fred Wright, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Axel Laurance, Samuel Watson, Simone Velasco, Matteo Trentin, Mathieu van der Poel, Jhonatan Narváez, Maxim van Gils, Magnus Sheffield, Ben Healy

Pick: Jonathan Milan

How: Sprint victory